Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[garylaverick]

We can see the convection picking up on the satellite, indicated by the higher cloud tops.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

[garylaverick]

At the risk of talking to myself ? low similarly position on 12z but through still looking good.

[NickR]

It looks a little 'fuller' above the main low.

And I'm still here listening, Gary! Very welcome analysis.

[rdt123]

That system always looks fuller when modeled a few days ago, teesside looks ok

[garylaverick]

The trough is moving in a SW direction too which will help to extend the length of time we're under it.

[NickR]

Looking at the winds and the charts I'd say that Newcastle north will do better than CLS south from the convection.

[rdt123]

I think it could all be relative Nick. I’m expecting 20cm across the week in teesside but fully expect somewhere further north to be reporting 40cm+. If someone up near Blyth tells me they have only 15cm by Thursday it’ll be bad news for the tees valley. Just a hunch from experience 

[Snowmaggedon]

14 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

That system always looks fuller when modeled a few days ago, teesside looks ok

Aye, the commute to work on Tuesday morning could be very interesting; looks like a period of heavy snow accompanying the polar low and trough behind it. I’ve found over the years that Teesside normally gets very lucky with snow so I have a good feeling about next week. 

[garylaverick]

WRT NMM still going for showers coming inland from 11pm and slight accumulations by 1am. Suppose it'll be a good test of it's accuracy. Only goes out to 36h so well have to wait until the 18z to see what it thinks of Tuesday morning.

[RUSH]

Afternoon all 5 c here is eldon bishop auckland .looks like it could be a intresting week .be safe all regard less

[NickR]

9 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

WRT NMM still going for showers coming inland from 11pm and slight accumulations by 1am. Suppose it'll be a good test of it's accuracy. Only goes out to 36h so well have to wait until the 18z to see what it thinks of Tuesday morning.

GFS 12z seems to suggest the same. I don't recall recent runs showing that.

[doctor32]

Lovely sunny evening, 3.5c

Garden will look very different this week...

Updated pictures daily 

[garylaverick]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

GFS 12z seems to suggest the same. I don't recall recent runs showing that.

Maybe getting a handle on the expected convection as we get closer. By the time I get up for work the NMM 1-3cm forecast for Tyne & Wear, I'll use that as my accuracy benchmark.

As the flow becomes colder I expect features could pop up that haven't been modelled at all, a la 2010.

[NickR]

"We're gunna need a bigger ruler..." (I hope!)

[NorthEastSnow]

27 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Aye, the commute to work on Tuesday morning could be very interesting; looks like a period of heavy snow accompanying the polar low and trough behind it. I’ve found over the years that Teesside normally gets very lucky with snow so I have a good feeling about next week. 

The wind on Wednesday seems to be a ese direction meaning a lot of the snow showers seem to his further North of the region. Hope I am wrong mind but I do still think we will do very well out of this. How much who knows. 

[rdt123]

Well my family have all just laughed at me for suggesting up to 20cm come Thursday. They all state their iPhones say light snow and apparently that’s just flurries and it won’t happen. We shall see !

[doctor32]

My advise, sit back, pull back the curtains, find a lampost (night time only) and enjoy what is coming.

Some WILL do better than others, no getting away from that, as is the nature of showers and wind direction causing these to band together.

Which ever way we look at it, everyday this week at least gives everyone in the north east a very good chance of a real good dumping of snow.

Will be some spectacular scenes, but also some very tricky and dangerous conditions... So be prepared!!!

 

[Stozzy]

Been at pub watching untied v Chelsea . Has Tuesday system moved north ?

[garylaverick]

4 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Been at pub watching untied v Chelsea . Has Tuesday system moved north ?

Similar location to this morning but the trough the trails it looks more active. Awaiting the feature to come in range of the short range models on the 18z update.

[gazzac69]

This Low to the South of the UK showing th/fr, needs to stay down there so we stay in the convective side, if this low gets close to us from past experience it can get very marginal especially nearer you are to the coast - disclaimer the uppers however are very low so it could stay as snow nearer the coast

I would rather not take the chance and hope the low stays to the south

I have also told the family and they just scoff - lets see who has the last laugh - us cold lovers hopefully

[garylaverick]

We've got convection picking up off the coast of Aberdeen. The NMM had this modelled as being inland now so maybe a few hours ahead of itself.

[Summer Sun]

Met office regional forecast

This Evening and Tonight:

Temperatures will fall quickly below freezing through the evening. Scattered snow showers will become more frequent on a brisk and bitter easterly breeze through the night with slight accumulations in places by dawn. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Monday:

Very cold with scattered snow showers continuing to push in on the easterly breeze, generally settling where they fall. These will be interspersed with bright or sunny intervals. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Bitterly cold and turning increasingly windy, with penetrating night frosts. Frequent, occasionally heavy snow showers giving significant accumulations for many, with some drifting.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-02-27

[doctor32]

Just now, garylaverick said:

We've got convection picking up off the coast of Aberdeen. The NMM had this modelled as being inland now so maybe a few hours ahead of itself.

Euro 4... bang on i would say

[Airedalejoe]

14 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Well my family have all just laughed at me for suggesting up to 20cm come Thursday. They all state their iPhones say light snow and apparently that’s just flurries and it won’t happen. We shall see !

I'd be surprised if the majority don't exceed that.

If these charts and possibilities don't get you excited you need a different hobby. The potential is huge and this coming week may not be repeated for a very long time.

If you aren't quite sure what the north sea snow machine can produce you are either new to this or haven't been paying attention.

Maybe!

[garylaverick]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

Euro 4... bang on i would say

I'd agrree.