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Paul

Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

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Didn't expect to see Mayday weekend snow ❄❄❄

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Grim out there now with new minimum of +1.6C a few minutes ago.
It's mostly hail and sleet.
Hills are thoroughly white with something.

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Patchy rain on and off since about 9am, 4mm so far.
It looks like getting heavier at times later and overnight.
I'm guessing about 15mm is likely here.

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There's a very nasty blob of rain rotating in-situ off Teesport this morning.
It must be the centre of the Low Pressure.
Luckily it seems to be edging northwards at the moment, in fact it's brightening up here now after a few spots earlier.
20mm yesterday between 5pm and midnight.
That's the wettest day this year so far (surprisingly)

rain.JPG

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Early warning issued for Wednesday and Thursday for heavy rain

00:00 Wed 12 to 12:00 Thu 13

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rain could lead to localised flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

There is a chance that periods of heavy rain may lead to localised flooding. Whilst some places may miss the worst of the rain, 20 mm could fall quite widely, with locally up to 60 mm. The heavy rain may also be accompanied by strong to gale force northeasterly winds.

North East England

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-12&id=ac65e97f-0bfb-4af5-8cdc-5c67ae1f352c&details

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New rain warning issued for Tuesday this is in addition to the warning on Wednesday and into Thursday

00:00 Tue 11 to 23:59 Tue 11

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rainfall could lead to local flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Further spells of rain, heavy at times, will continue to affect parts of eastern England during Tuesday. Whilst some places will miss the worst of the rain, a further 10-25 mm may fall quite widely, with some areas potentially seeing up to 60 mm. Much of this may fall in 6-12 hours, mainly during the first half of Tuesday. There is also a chance that thunder may develop later in the day in the south of the warning area once the morning's rain clears.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-11&id=f68f16c2-cfc9-45d8-a0ad-d1c09da3dacd&details 

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Updated warning for Wednesday and early Thursday

00:00 Wed 12 to 12:00 Thu 13

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rain could lead to localised flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Reason for update

Area has been adjusted slightly southwards and local rainfall amounts have been adjusted to reflect the potential for higher totals over the hills of NE England.

There is a chance that continued periods of heavy rain may lead to localised flooding. Whilst some places may miss the worst of the rain, a further 20 to 40 mm could widely fall. 60 to 80 mm is possible locally across the high ground of northeast England, accompanied by strong to gale force northeasterly winds. There is also a chance that thunder may develop later on Thursday in the south of the warning area as the rain moves northward.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-12&id=ac65e97f-0bfb-4af5-8cdc-5c67ae1f352c&details 

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I wonder if some places will hit 100mm by Thursday which would only be the 13th June. That must be 2007, 2012 standards

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Yellow warning for heavy rain 

00:00 Tomorrow to 15:00 Tomorrow

Heavy rain may cause some travel disruption and flooding in a few places.

What to expect

  • Flooding of a few homes and businesses is likely
  • Some interruption to power supplies and other services likely
  • Bus and train services probably affected with journey times taking longer
  • Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer

Heavy rain will develop during late Wednesday evening and the early hours of Thursday and then gradually start to ease later on Thursday morning. 30 to 50 mm is likely to fall quite widely and over higher ground in southeast Scotland and northern Northumberland 80 to 100 mm rain may fall in a few places.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-13&id=951a6fd4-4f7c-498d-811e-2cdfb4f9ca57&details

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Yellow warning for thunderstorms issued from mid Sunday afternoon and all of Monday

15:00 Sun 23 to 23:59 Mon 24

Thunderstorms may develop bringing torrential rain and lightning, with possible flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures

Spells of rain are expected to affect many areas at times from Sunday afternoon and into Monday, moving north-northeastward and perhaps turning thundery at times in some places. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may also develop between bands of rain, particularly on Monday afternoon. Where thunderstorms do develop, 20 to 30 mm rain may fall locally in an hour, and close to 40 mm of rain may fall in two or three hours.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=747b8a63-0bcf-45b7-a2f2-ca667f339f58&details 

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That's a bit early for a thunderstorm warning 

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Updated thunderstorm warnings

12:00 Sun 23 to 23:59 Sun 23

Thunderstorms may develop bringing torrential rain and lightning, with possible flooding and disruption to travel.

  • What to expect
  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Spells of rain are expected to affect many areas at times from Sunday afternoon, moving northwards and perhaps turning heavy and thundery in some areas. Where thunderstorms develop, 20 to 30 mm rain may fall in some places in an hour, and close to 50 mm of rain may fall in two or three hours.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-23&id=2f84f564-28d5-4e73-9096-e912aa4a7efc&details

00:00 Mon 24 to 23:59 Mon 24

Heavy rain and thunderstorms may lead to flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Reason for update

Warning updated to add additional detail as to which regions are most likely to see thunderstorms in different parts of the day.

Heavy thundery rain is expected to move northwards across Wales, central and northern England through Monday morning, clearing to the north around midday. Isolated heavy thunderstorms may then develop across much of England and Wales during the afternoon, with the greatest potential being towards the southeast. Further heavy thundery rain may then arrive across southern parts of England late in the day. In areas affected by the thundery rain 20-40mm may fall widely, with peaks of 60mm possible across parts of northern England. In areas affected by isolated heavy thunderstorms, very locally in excess of 40mm may fall in an hour.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-24&id=747b8a63-0bcf-45b7-a2f2-ca667f339f58&details

00:00 Tue 25 to 23:59 Tue 25

Further thunderstorms, potentially severe, are likely, bringing a risk of flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Thunderstorms are expected across parts of England and Wales at times on Tuesday. Storms are likely to spread north from France early in the day, before developing more widely later. Whilst some places may miss storms altogether, where they do develop 20-30 mm of rain could fall in one hour, with a few spots perhaps seeing as much as 40-60 mm in one hour, which is very unusual for the UK. Large hail, lightning and gusty winds are also likely.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • Stockton-on-Tees

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-25&id=807af5ca-ef2a-4445-a269-0e4c33498f60&details

Edited by Summer Sun

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Updated thunderstorm warning for tomorrow

19:00 Tomorrow to 23:59 Tomorrow

Thunderstorms may develop late Sunday bringing torrential rain and lightning, with possible flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater or lightning strikes
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a chance that power cuts could occur

Reason for update

The overall risk of thunderstorms on Sunday has reduced. If they do occur, it is now more likely late Sunday and restricted to parts of north Wales, the North Midlands and northern England.

Spells of rain are expected to affect many areas, perhaps turning heavy and thundery in some areas during the evening. Where thunderstorms develop, 20 to 30 mm rain may fall in a few places in an hour.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=2f84f564-28d5-4e73-9096-e912aa4a7efc&details

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A decent update for our region, if you like storms that is 😁

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I see a light easterly bringing cool air off the sea near the coast, not conducive to big storms but you never know.

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Tuesday's thunderstorm warning has been cancelled for the region

Convective weather have issued a SLGT for tomorrow

______________________________________________________________________

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

ISSUED 08:10 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The forecast evolution for Monday / Monday night is very uncertain and rather complex. It is very likely some aspects of this forecast will change as the event draws closer, but for now we try to highlight some of the main themes.

On Monday morning, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of Ireland across the Irish Sea to northern England, along the rear side of the frontal rain. This will continue to lift northwards into southern and eastern Scotland and out across the North Sea as the day progresses.

In its wake, a second shortwave impulse will arrive by late morning or the afternoon, and so a second round of thunderstorms is possible, particularly over northern England - but possibly some areas farther south too, depending on the timing/phasing of this shortwave. At a glance, forecast profiles look capped to surface-based convection, and so it is quite likely much of this activity will be elevated. That said, isolated surface-based convection cannot be ruled out, especially where initially elevated convection can root within the boundary layer. The environment is likely to be well-sheared, with both reasonable speed and directional shear present, enabling cell organisation. Hail and flash flooding may be problematic. This potential may be somewhat contaminated by hints of some frontal (dynamic) precipitation running up from the south at times too, along the frontal boundary.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on Monday afternoon / early evening in the post-frontal environment - although here, with closer proximity to the upper low, the environment will be less-sheared and so "pulse type" convection is most favoured.

On Monday evening, a shortwave over Biscay combined with isentropic upglide as a renewed pulse of very warm, moist low-level air advects north/northeastward will result in another round of elevated thunderstorms, though this time the steering flow will tend to drift these towards CS / SE England and into East Anglia. The exact track of these thunderstorms is a little uncertain, with model guidance wobbling east and west over recent days. However, it must be noted that most lightning activity will tend to be focussed on the eastern flank of the precipitation envelope, with a period of more generic frontal rain likely on the western flank as a wave runs north along the frontal zone.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-24

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21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated thunderstorm warning for tomorrow

19:00 Tomorrow to 23:59 Tomorrow

Thunderstorms may develop late Sunday bringing torrential rain and lightning, with possible flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater or lightning strikes
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a chance that power cuts could occur

Reason for update

The overall risk of thunderstorms on Sunday has reduced. If they do occur, it is now more likely late Sunday and restricted to parts of north Wales, the North Midlands and northern England.

Spells of rain are expected to affect many areas, perhaps turning heavy and thundery in some areas during the evening. Where thunderstorms develop, 20 to 30 mm rain may fall in a few places in an hour.

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=2f84f564-28d5-4e73-9096-e912aa4a7efc&details

Tonight's warning has been cancelled the only warning now is all of Monday 

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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tuesday's thunderstorm warning has been cancelled for the region

Convective weather have issued a SLGT for tomorrow

______________________________________________________________________

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

ISSUED 08:10 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The forecast evolution for Monday / Monday night is very uncertain and rather complex. It is very likely some aspects of this forecast will change as the event draws closer, but for now we try to highlight some of the main themes.

On Monday morning, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of Ireland across the Irish Sea to northern England, along the rear side of the frontal rain. This will continue to lift northwards into southern and eastern Scotland and out across the North Sea as the day progresses.

In its wake, a second shortwave impulse will arrive by late morning or the afternoon, and so a second round of thunderstorms is possible, particularly over northern England - but possibly some areas farther south too, depending on the timing/phasing of this shortwave. At a glance, forecast profiles look capped to surface-based convection, and so it is quite likely much of this activity will be elevated. That said, isolated surface-based convection cannot be ruled out, especially where initially elevated convection can root within the boundary layer. The environment is likely to be well-sheared, with both reasonable speed and directional shear present, enabling cell organisation. Hail and flash flooding may be problematic. This potential may be somewhat contaminated by hints of some frontal (dynamic) precipitation running up from the south at times too, along the frontal boundary.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on Monday afternoon / early evening in the post-frontal environment - although here, with closer proximity to the upper low, the environment will be less-sheared and so "pulse type" convection is most favoured.

On Monday evening, a shortwave over Biscay combined with isentropic upglide as a renewed pulse of very warm, moist low-level air advects north/northeastward will result in another round of elevated thunderstorms, though this time the steering flow will tend to drift these towards CS / SE England and into East Anglia. The exact track of these thunderstorms is a little uncertain, with model guidance wobbling east and west over recent days. However, it must be noted that most lightning activity will tend to be focussed on the eastern flank of the precipitation envelope, with a period of more generic frontal rain likely on the western flank as a wave runs north along the frontal zone.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-24

Under a MDT for today though well the south of the region is 

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Potent elevated thunderstorms  not long passed through South Tyneside, One of em directly overhead produced one 'ell ova gunshot..!!

544154916_ScreenShot2019-06-24at15_08_37.thumb.png.730b48ed8ac516e8737185e15b3dab97.png

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This spell hasn't quite gone to plan it would appear some distant rumbles yesterday but that's it even the overnight rain still hasn't arrived yet

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Such a fuss about heat, for us the automated forecast on here shows only Saturday getting above 20C with a 24C.
That will likely be the only June day this year above 70F
 

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It might get above 12C tomorrow 😮

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