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Paul

Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

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It’s not all over yet as we all know end of Feb/March can deliver snow here but the prospects don’t look great. 

It’s been another frustrating winter after so much promis and great charts ssw etc it’s just not delivered anything really.

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Almost constant heavy showers here this morning, and about 6" lying, but it's close to +1C so thawing slowly.

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26 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

It’s not all over yet as we all know end of Feb/March can deliver snow here but the prospects don’t look great. 

It’s been another frustrating winter after so much promis and great charts ssw etc it’s just not delivered anything really.

Hopefully this SSW will come as a timely reminder for a few that it doesn't guarantee cold and snow ala 2018 yes it can help but it can also hinder

It seemed this winter that as soon as the SSW happened the MAD thread was expecting it to bring cold and snow

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6 hours ago, seabreeze86 said:

Please don't miss 

Screenshot_20190202-081405.png

Well it didn't miss and gave a few cm's was very heavy for a time,was a great drive to work, all gone now where I live but still some up the top end of Redcar, the hills white over. Sledging is a go for tomorrow morning with my daughters

Edited by seabreeze86

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Hopefully this SSW will come as a timely reminder for a few that it doesn't guarantee cold and snow ala 2018 yes it can help but it can also hinder

It seemed this winter that as soon as the SSW happened the MAD thread was expecting it to bring cold and snow

There is still time for our part of the world to still feel the effects from the SSW

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Cold night ahead .is that it did winter ? Least we have seen some snow . If it’s gonna be mild south westerly / west winds fast forward too spring/ summer please . Sat in the garden with a beer 😜😂

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1 hour ago, Boro Snow said:

There is still time for our part of the world to still feel the effects from the SSW

Going to need a massive turn around going by tonight's GEFS an early spring might be on the cards for some of Europe

These take us to Feb 18th

gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_1.thumb.png.6bc34a898fbad08d6572a4e6a913b6e6.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_4.thumb.png.cf2662efbc007b55d5f941ef611688bc.png
gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_6.thumb.png.4df5181fcde88d48caa5a157d10d4d0c.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_8.thumb.png.87e11b5487c48a1fa956ce90135e658a.png
gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_10.thumb.png.8a767efae7e0f1ca76eebf4adfe1d79b.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_12.thumb.png.ab17b7e2d9ce04b89a675e81790c1b34.png

 

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18 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Cold night ahead .is that it did winter ? Least we have seen some snow . If it’s gonna be mild south westerly / west winds fast forward too spring/ summer please . Sat in the garden with a beer 😜😂

No i do not think so still 6 weeks left imo, The GFS Para shows from 276 (FI i know) hrs tonight what could be possible with Northenly then an Easterly, We await what effects the SSW could bring if any

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Going to need a massive turn around going by tonight's GEFS an early spring might be on the cards for some of Europe

These take us to Feb 18th

gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_1.thumb.png.6bc34a898fbad08d6572a4e6a913b6e6.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_4.thumb.png.cf2662efbc007b55d5f941ef611688bc.png
gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_6.thumb.png.4df5181fcde88d48caa5a157d10d4d0c.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_8.thumb.png.87e11b5487c48a1fa956ce90135e658a.png
gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_10.thumb.png.8a767efae7e0f1ca76eebf4adfe1d79b.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_12.thumb.png.ab17b7e2d9ce04b89a675e81790c1b34.png

 

The GEFS can quickly change from run to run just like the OP

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1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

The GEFS can quickly change from run to run just like the OP

Indeed it can but it certainly seems set on a milder period now

I think we can realistically write off the opening half of the month now the 2nd half of the month could flip colder 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Indeed it can but it certainly seems set on a milder period now

I think we can realistically write off the opening half of the month now the 2nd half of the month could flip colder 

Without a doubt. No cold for the next 2 week's. Hopefully we will get another beast at the end of Feb. Been a pretty poor winter but I've enjoyed the last 2 days.

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7 hours ago, NorthEastSnow said:

It’s not all over yet as we all know end of Feb/March can deliver snow here but the prospects don’t look great. 

It’s been another frustrating winter after so much promis and great charts ssw etc it’s just not delivered anything really.

There is much winter still left, despite the outlook looking fairly mild (nothing exceptional), even some of the very mild winters have had a late winter sting in their tail..

Northerlies and easterlies become far more likely from mid February onwards and can pack a punch well into April still. Yes chances of sustained bitter cold with mean temps below 0 degrees for days on end do become less likely from late Feb onwards (but can still occur easily..).

Far too early for anyone to call time on this winter (and for this region and Scotland, March counts as winter as well, in terms of being able to deliver potent wintry conditions, in many a year its been colder and snowier than December).

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Wasn’t expecting much today but that front coming over from west still seems to have some punch to it and looks like snow.

Whats people’s thoughts on this or will it be rain. 

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10 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

Wasn’t expecting much today but that front coming over from west still seems to have some punch to it and looks like snow.

Whats people’s thoughts on this or will it be rain. 

I was hopeful it would produce a bit of snow before turning to rain, but it looks like it is fragmenting, and the air is being warmed at the surface ahead of it - just sleet expected here, before cold rain - not a great prospect. Fells will get a fresh coating.

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Favourite cold seasons this decade

1. 2010 2. 2011 3. 2013, 2018 5. 2012 6. 2019(so far) 7. 2015, 2017, 2016, 2014

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The change to less cold air is now underway as cloud spreads in from the west bringing a mix of rain, sleet and hill snow. Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of today most low level parts should be around 5c by late tonight.

Overnight will be frost free thanks to cloud cover with lows around 5c we should peak around 8c tomorrow with a frost likely to take us into Tuesday

This spell of less cold air then looks like taking us through to mid month

f0ce5eab-aa6e-410c-ac8e-841315e69cfe.thumb.png.058cc353d563b476c39b1fce00cdd154.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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So the snow is a melting and as some have mentioned less cold over the coming days, Next week will feel milder compared to late but not as mild as further south.

Still the chance of some colder nights this coming week depending on cloud cover.

One thing to watch in the models is a trend to blocking to develop once more from next weekend, So potential for this less cold/mild period to be rather short lived.

Expect some interesting charts to show there hands by wednesday onwards, as ever not certain but some support for cold to return w/c 11th...

 

 

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The change to less cold air is now underway as cloud spreads in from the west bringing a mix of rain, sleet and hill snow. Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of today most low level parts should be around 5c by late tonight.

Overnight will be frost free thanks to cloud cover with lows around 5c we should peak around 8c tomorrow with a frost likely to take us into Tuesday

This spell of less cold air then looks like taking us through to mid month

f0ce5eab-aa6e-410c-ac8e-841315e69cfe.thumb.png.058cc353d563b476c39b1fce00cdd154.png

Are you sure about that 😀

 

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54 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

So the snow is a melting and as some have mentioned less cold over the coming days, Next week will feel milder compared to late but not as mild as further south.

Still the chance of some colder nights this coming week depending on cloud cover.

One thing to watch in the models is a trend to blocking to develop once more from next weekend, So potential for this less cold/mild period to be rather short lived.

Expect some interesting charts to show there hands by wednesday onwards, as ever not certain but some support for cold to return w/c 11th...

 

 

Yes looks like a new trend is developing, lets hope its not the garden path scenario again

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8 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Are you sure about that 😀

 

Still looks less cold out to mid month the odd day could be cooler but nothing bitterly cold in sight yet

gefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.1818485804d4d11d94efae93b0782ad9.png

2nd half of the month still very much up for grabs

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Rain overnight has washed away most of the snow much milder this morning with a light to moderate wind

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Yellow wind warning issued from Friday afternoon to 6pm Saturday

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Gateshead
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Newcastle upon Tyne
  • North Tyneside
  • Northumberland
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • South Tyneside
  • Stockton-on-Tees
  • Sunderland

Between 12:00 Fri 8th and 18:00 Sat 9th

A spell of very strong winds is expected to affect large parts of the UK leading to some travel disruption.

What to expect

  • Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely
  • Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely
  • Some short term loss of power and other services is possible
  • It’s possible that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities could be affected by spray and/or large waves

Further details

A deep area of low pressure is expected to track across northern Britain later on Friday and through early Saturday. Southwesterly winds will strengthen through Friday. Gales will become widespread later on Friday, persisting well into Saturday whilst becoming more westerly. Whilst some places may miss the worst of the winds, inland gusts of 50 mph are expected quite widely, with some places having gusts in excess of 60 mph, more especially across the north of the warning area on Saturday. Gusts of up to 70 mph are likely around some coasts exposed to the west or southwest. Winds will gradually ease on Saturday, with the strongest winds becoming confined to Scotland on Saturday afternoon. These winds will lead to large waves affecting coasts and the possibility of waves overtopping some coastal routes, especially in the west and south of the warning area. In addition, bands of heavy rain sweeping eastwards on Friday in particular will present an additional hazard.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-02-08

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Frosty this morning which I wasn't expecting anyway the snow from Friday is hanging on 😂

 

IMAG0022.jpg

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There's a decent show of big drifts along the edge of the high moor, it was pretty rough up there Saturday and Sunday

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