Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[NickR]

Just to check... the GFS accumulation charts don't account (properly) for convection, correct?

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Airedalejoe said:

I'd prefer we don't get affected by the low moving up from the south west as we may then get the milder air come next weekend. Keep it to the south of us and we'll continue with heavy snow blizzards off the north sea, they will compare with whatever comes from the low pressure. Less risk for still a big reward!

Its a long way off, but the depth of surface cold and uppers still around -4, -5 degree mark would mean continuous heavy snowfall, no turning to rain, and the cold air forecast to dig back south, it would only be if it moves into Scotland the chance of snow turning to rain increases, but we can see snow even when uppers are above 0 degrees, evaporative cooling effect, then it depends on dewpoints.

I don't expect it to push into Scotland.

[doctor32]

6 minutes ago, NickR said:

Just to check... the GFS accumulation charts don't account (properly) for convection, correct?

Not 100% sure, i think they would account for some of the accumulations. However very hard to predict exact paths showers take so places could easily get way more than shown and vise versa?

Edited February 25, 2018 by doctor32

[garylaverick]

First signs of showers showing themselves from 11pm tonight on the WRF NMM.

[Freezing-Point]

Well the excitement is building.  I will be checking out the radar from later on today as the cold air starts to dig in.  Huge potential here.

Wonder if we will get the type of showers that start with heavy large soft hail and finish with snow.  Have not seen those in a long time and I only ever recall seeing them from Easterlies.  I can recall getting several inches of just soft hail one time.  Also good chances of thundersnow...

[garylaverick]

Just now, Freezing-Point said:

Well the excitement is building.  I will be checking out the radar from later on today as the cold air starts to dig in.  Huge potential here.

Wonder if we will get the type of showers that start with heavy large soft hail and finish with snow.  Have not seen those in a long time and I only ever recall seeing them from Easterlies.  I can recall getting several inches of just soft hail one time.  Also good chances of thundersnow...

I remember 2010 had a large amount of graupel here at the start. I'm looking forward to the drama of convective showers.

[rdt123]

Only seen thunder snow once , yellow sky and heavy snow, was an amazing experience. What I really want to see is a blizzard. I remember as a child in the seventies getting as much whipped up off the ground as was falling from the sky. The test was whether the lamppost at the bottom of the street disappeared. Please please let me see that again , it’s been a long long time 

[doctor32]

Snow update:

Tonight, the first sign of the snow showers arrives with the bitterly cold air just after midnight, this will form and band of snow showers reaching the east coast and heading inland... probably a few hours of snow showers giving a slight dusting in places.

Monday, scattered snow showers throughout the day these focused more first thing then again during the evening/overnight period... so possibly not too bad of a day but very cold.

Tuesday, we see the shallow low cross the south of the region during the early hours creating a band of persistent heavy snow which will give a good few cms for most, brief lul before the snow showers start piling in during the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday/thursday, likely the worst days for some really heavy frequent snow showers combined with strong winds leading to driftin snow and blizzard like condistions as the flow will be very unstable with many troughs passing west enhancing the showers to more prolonged spell of snow. (amber warning likely)

Friday/saturday, IF the low pushes as far north as shown then expect many hours of heavy snow/blizzards.

My thoughts on this weeks snow 

[Freezing-Point]

5 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Only seen thunder snow once , yellow sky and heavy snow, was an amazing experience. What I really want to see is a blizzard. I remember as a child in the seventies getting as much whipped up off the ground as was falling from the sky. The test was whether the lamppost at the bottom of the street disappeared. Please please let me see that again , it’s been a long long time 

Chances of getting blizzard like conditions look high, even at low levels.  Normally reserved for high ground, but this time temperatures are low enough and it looks like the wind will be strong enough after Tuesday, especially in the showers.

 

I also think we will be reminded of what HEAVY SNOW actually is.  Far too many call moderate snow heavy these days.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Freezing-Point

[Boro Snow]

2 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Only seen thunder snow once , yellow sky and heavy snow, was an amazing experience. What I really want to see is a blizzard. I remember as a child in the seventies getting as much whipped up off the ground as was falling from the sky. The test was whether the lamppost at the bottom of the street disappeared. Please please let me see that again , it’s been a long long time 

Only once I am shocked at that considering you live only a few miles away from me, we have had it 3 times this year alone, 

[NickR]

5 minutes ago, Freezing-Point said:

Chances of getting blizzard like conditions look high, even at low levels.  Normally reserved for high ground, but this time temperatures are low enough and it looks like the wind will be strong enough after Tuesday, especially in the showers.

 

I also think we will be reminded of what HEAVY SNOW actually is.  Far too many call moderate snow heavy these days.

Could not agree more. It really annoys me!

[rdt123]

8 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Only once I am shocked at that considering you live only a few miles away from me, we have had it 3 times this year alone, 

Really ? Lightning in snow fall? I must have been in bed

[Snowmaggedon]

That polar low still looks like hitting the South of the region on Tuesday morning.

[Snowmaggedon]

 

28 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

Friday and Tuesday 

 

 

[doctor32]

6 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

That polar low still looks like hitting the South of the region on Tuesday morning.

Yes, but the trough to the north from low will bring widespread snow to all 

Edited February 25, 2018 by doctor32

[North East Blizzard]

Looking at those charts from Chris, that will hit the whole of the north east for certain

[doctor32]

7 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Really ? Lightning in snow fall? I must have been in bed

Yes, had a fair bit during that night of heavy snow fall back in january.

[Barking_Mad]

One more... 

Maybe some upgrades nearer the time? 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Barking_Mad

[Summer Sun]

Met office thoughts for Darlo

Tuesday to Friday

[Snowmaggedon]

4 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Yes, but the trough to the north from low will bring widespread snow to all 

That’s very reassuring, can’t wait now. 

[JP1972]

May as well pop out of hibernation for what looks like winter’s final hurrah! And potentially, what a hurrah it could prove to be. 

Cold and cloudy here now, and the wind is starting to pick up, a very chilly wind at that. I’m hoping the wind veers NE, NNE, or ENE as that tends to favour our region better in these convective/streamer types of set ups. Interestingly the Beeb has us down for a milder blip next Saturday/Sunday before then further snow showers the following week. All way too far out in FI of course to be taken too seriously, however the next 5 days will hopefully provide everyone in our region with some form of decent snowfall. 

[Stozzy]

Looks like everywhere will get hit with Tuesday morning feature . With the centre of the low coming over my house 

[doctor32]

It's grim up north...

[Summer Sun]

Just in the range of Euro 4 now

Tuesday 06z

[NickR]

I'd still like that low to be modelled a BIT further north... I know we'll get the trough, but a direct hit would give greater amounts!