Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[Hagler]

There was a foot of level snow ?

The drifts still haven’t gone ?

[garylaverick]

Just now, Hagler said:

There was a foot of level snow ?

The drifts still haven’t gone ?

Must be very big wheels on that Clio then! 

[doctor32]

I plan on taking as many pics as possible from tomorrow, every morning and evening of back garden to see how much we get caked by.

Hopefully way more than this...

[Hagler]

2 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

Must be very big wheels on that Clio then! 

That’s the roof of my car. 

[topsweep1506]

14 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Depends what you mean? If it's the start of the snow showers and very cold air arriving then sunday night.

If it's disruptive snow, then prob tuesday.

Sorry i ment when the snow will start

Im at work on nights on Mon/Tue so was hoping i would miss the heaviest snow

[doctor32]

1 minute ago, topsweep1506 said:

Sorry i ment when the snow will start

Im at work on nights on Mon/Tue so was hoping i would miss the heaviest snow

Tricky drive to/from work for you then.

 

[garylaverick]

2 minutes ago, Hagler said:

That’s the roof of my car. 

That's a good amount on the roof! I'm guessing the ground was wet when it started hence not building up as much there? We shouldn't have that problem this time with these ground temps.

[NickR]

5 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

That's a good amount on the roof! I'm guessing the ground was wet when it started hence not building up as much there? We shouldn't have that problem this time with these ground temps.

I'm still convinced that pic was from a summer's day in Tow Law.

[Hagler]

I’m honestly expecting to get snowed in up here, Sod’s law I took a weeks holiday from Tuesday when I probably wouldn’t have been able to get in anyway ?

[garylaverick]

GFS 18z rolling now and we can expect the negative uppers to be crossing our beaches any moment now.

[NickR]

What's the best scenario for us vis-à-vis the low towards the end of the week? All the talk in the MO thread is of possible blizzards in the South... from our perspective, what would be the best outcome there? Will it still result in heavy convection here even if we don't get the winds they get down there?

[garylaverick]

From what I can see if the low came a bit further North it could result in serious frontal snow for us, to the detriment of those in the south who'll have the milder uppers dragged over them.

Where it is modelled at the moment it'll result in increased convective snow for us and keep us in the cold uppers, but the frontal snow would be south of us.

Obviously too far North and it'll drag those mild uppers over us too.

[NickR]

4 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

From what I can see if the low came a bit further North it could result in serious frontal snow for us, to the detriment of those in the south who'll have the milder uppers dragged over them.

Where it is modelled at the moment it'll result in increased convective snow for us and keep us in the cold uppers, but the frontal snow would be south of us.

Obviously too far North and it'll drag those mild uppers over us too.

I'm willing to sacrifice the south.... :-D  ... though if it means an end to the spell, then maybe accepting serious convection instead while they get their blzzard would be acceptable. Would the convection be decent if the southerly track pans out?

[garylaverick]

I imagine should the low stay south then our convection off the north sea would be at similar levels to the early to mid part of the week, which were expecting (touch wood) to be pretty decent in the deeply cold and unstable easterly flow.

 

Already some nice disturbances coming through on the FAX charts.

[garylaverick]

-14 uppers knocking on the door at 75h

[seabreeze86]

The GFS had shown this disturbance for days and not changed its path once should give some heavy snow for us. Convection next week is going to be tremendous, somewhere will get 40cm plus for sure

Edited February 24, 2018 by seabreeze86

[Stozzy]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

The GFS had shown this disturbance for days and not changed its path once should give some heavy snow for us.

Hopefully . Decent dumping off that lot 

[doctor32]

Up to 96hrs and no real change, just slight difference in direction of wind over the region which will change distribution of snow showers to favour some more than others.

 

[garylaverick]

I'll add a GIF of the precipitation from the 18z once it's fully out. It's ludacris, I've certainly not seen anything like it. The amount of kinks crossing us are endless and just keep on delivering.

[doctor32]

Is this the NE model output discussion thread tonight 

[Dahonis]

I'm learning more here than anywhere else ?

[seabreeze86]

Might even have to wear a coat on Wednesday looks a bit nippy

[NickR]

At around 120 the ppn up here is a tad further north so some areas miss out. Is this due to the low being progged further north again?

[garylaverick]

28mm accumulation by Friday morning. I've heard we can expect a conversion rate of up to 1:20 due to the depth of cold delivering dry powder snow, so that would make 56cm (22") of snow!

[garylaverick]

27 minutes ago, NickR said:

At around 120 the ppn up here is a tad further north so some areas miss out. Is this due to the low being progged further north again?

And we're back. 

Yeah low looks a lot further north but go forward a few slides and we're in the frontal snow! However you can see the milder air that has been dragged over the south and Midlands and will eventually result in the end of our cold spell too.

Of course by this point were hoping to be knee deep anyway!