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Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

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I haven't had a chance to look at the charts.. I'm guessing that's  yes to my question then!

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45 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

I think metoffice might issue early warnings for the snow/ice expected next week.

Potentially we may see them appear friday...

Just a hunch!

Looking severe this for our region.

Yeah, I'm surprised at the lack of direction given the fact we could be in for the long haul. It doesn't give people much time to prepare. My company receives Meto info but only often receive these a day or two in advance which I think in this set up is poor especially falling on a weekend.

So here's my checklist:

Rocksalt.   Tick

Spare snow shovel.   Tick

Candles.    Tick

Power banks.   Tick

Bluetooth speakers.   Tick

Phone data.   Tick

Excitement.  Tick. Tick.  Tick

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Cold weather alert issued for Friday to Monday

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:51 on Wed 21 Feb 2018

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 23 Feb and 1200 on Monday 26 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

As the weekend approaches, average temperatures are likely to fall bringing a likelihood of meeting low temperature criteria across all regions. This with mainly fine and dry weather initially until Sunday, where snow showers will become more likely. The cold continental east or southeasterly wind will also become a factor, strengthening enough to give significant wind chill. The alert is likely to be reviewed on Friday, and perhaps upgraded and extended further into the new week as the cold weather looks likely to continue.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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I'm hoping where too far gone now to jinx it but here is a bargain for rock salt for 20kg bags from Travis Perkins

S80221-13004881.jpg

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Are we still looking good for snow next week then? With all the IMBYism and bed wetting in the MOD thread this morning it has been extremely confusing for those of us who cannot read weather charts. 

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22 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Are we still looking good for snow next week then? With all the IMBYism and bed wetting in the MOD thread this morning it has been extremely confusing for those of us who cannot read weather charts. 

The NE normally does well from these set ups, especially when the flow turns more NorthEasterly when high retrogresses to gteenland.

Plus certain to be some troughs and potentially lows in the mix to give prolonged spells of snow...

However detail this far out regarding snow for any one location impossible just yet.

Wait till weekend my advice

Edited by doctor32
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I'm still not 100% convinced yet I have a horrible feeling the high will track south and the colder uppers with it leaving us cold and dry, I hope im wrong as it would be a brilliant end to a good winter for us, I will be much happier if things remain on track after tomorrow's 12z 

Edited by Boro Snow

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9 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

I'm still not 100% convinced yet I have a horrible feeling the high will track south and the colder uppers with it leaving us cold and dry, I hope im wrong as it would be a brilliant end to a good winter for us, I will be much happier if things remain on track after tomorrow's 12z 

Well if Meto are 80% confident enough to issue an alert advising readiness, albeit nationwide I think we would have to be very unlucky not to get something from an easterly, north easterly and possible greenie high. All 3 options scream potential and I wouldn't expect any in between melts. I'm only hoping it's the longevity and depth that's in question but it's goIng to be a fascinating time seeing which areas get the hit as long as it's not France 😠

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Hopefully mate, that warning though which I don't understand is Fri till Monday 12pm just before the really cold air is due to arrive, I know it says it could be extended but still, I think there is a bit of reverse psychology going on in my head :D

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1 hour ago, Boro Snow said:

I'm still not 100% convinced yet I have a horrible feeling the high will track south and the colder uppers with it leaving us cold and dry, I hope im wrong as it would be a brilliant end to a good winter for us, I will be much happier if things remain on track after tomorrow's 12z 

I'll level with you if I still lived in the North East I'd be out getting the "Snowmaggedon" check list done and dusted, especially if I lived in a more rural area. If anything vaguely like the recent chart outputs come off you're looking at being buried, and the wind could lead to serious drifting. I've had the snowmaggedon check list since 2010 when I realised snow could actually be a bit of an issue (had mild winters growing up). We're all weather nuts on here, so no doubt prepared but if you want a idiots list to send to your doddery old aunty...

  1. Rock Salt - 25kg bag. Even if somehow doesn't snow, the drive and pavement by your house (councils don't seem to bother anywhere but schools, be nice to your neighbours) will need gritting.
  2. -20 De-Icer - there's a real probability temperatures could get as low as -15 in snowfields within the next few weeks, be over-prepared. And you might need it for your windows on the house rather than the car!
  3. 7 days worth of homemade ready meals in freezer (tastes nicer than store bought crap; plus bigger portions)
  4. 7 days worth of milk and bread (2 loaves and 2 2L bottles) - sandwich fillers/butter/jam etc
  5. Snow Shovel -  one of the large ones. Or if you can afford it a Sleigh Shovel.
  6. An extra duvey cover and several blankets.
  7. Have 2 power banks for your phone, fully charged or even one of those wind-up chargers.
  8. Make sure you have candles and something to light them with (you'll soon realise if you haven't got matches in a powercut!)
  9. Torches. Some bottled water in case theirs no water, or the water ends up filthy. A 5L one should last a week.
  10. Download the rain radar/netweather app so you can keep a track of showers and intensity.
  11. An electric heater, in case the gas heating goes off but there's still electric.
  12. A decent pair of snowboots of with grip on them, skating down black ice might be fun as a kid, it's a massive A&E risk as an adult.
  13. Drain your outside taps and shut off the water valves.
  14. Unclog your drains and gutters; if there's leaves etc in there they'll get frozen over quicker.
  15. Stock up the medicine cabinet. If roads are dodgy, it will take longer for trucks to get around and shortages of all-sorts can happen,
  16. Check on elderly and vulnerable neighbours and family to ensure they are fully prepared for the storm. If you can afford it make them up a little parcel with absolute essentials in it or top up their meter. Many would be too proud to ask for something even if they can't afford it, and cold-weather payments will come through too late or not at all with the 7 day system.
  17. Baby wipes and soap. Please do those around you a favour and even if the water goes off, wash yourself with baby wipes. Save the bottle further up for drinking.
  18. Chocolate and other sweet foods, you'll want to comfort eat when you physically can't leave your house. And you'll be starving from all that snow shovelling if you can leave your house.
  19. A sledge for the kids and carrot for the snowman, although the snow you get may not be great for snowmen as it'll be that cold. 
  20. A camera, so you can show those of us not "lucky enough to see as much snow all the beautiful winter wonderland picks.
Edited by Deep Snow please

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Quality post that mate, I think I'm just been over cautious, not told the kids yet either I think I will leave that till Saturday, still got 2 bags of salt in the garage from that ECM I obviously didn't use 😁, will print that checklist out and pop on the fridge 👍

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I'm already all in. Told kids, parents, work colleagues. This had better come off..

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3 hours ago, geordiekev said:

 

So here's my checklist:

Rocksalt.   Tick

Spare snow shovel.   Tick

Candles.    Tick

Power banks.   Tick

Bluetooth speakers.   Tick

Phone data.   Tick

Excitement.  Tick. Tick.  Tick

Kids today :nonono:.
 You want the bath filled with coal and hand saws ready to cut up furniture when you run out.
Two sacks of spuds under the bed which will hopefully be one of the few places in the house they won't freeze.

The truly forward thinking would be considering a fair way to decide who gets sacrificed first in case it comes to cannibalism.
To avoid suspicion get the kids on the scales beforehand to calculate weights, you might invite elderly relatives round at the weekend, they will be less likely  to already be wasting away due to the great 2018 KFC famine. 

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Ah hell. UKMO is crap for here.

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But the GFS is great, there is some right idiots in that Mod thread not sure were they have all come from 

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Oo No. Its because i told the kids isn't it? :fool:

I still think our region will still be OK. :cold:

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To sum the 6z and 12z runs up, the high has been modelled further south. This means pressure is higher in the north, resulting in less instability and thus less snowfall. Like I said earlier, we'll need to see the high being modelled further north to allow the instability and colder uppers to hit the UK directly. If this does happen, it'll be our coldest and most likely snowiest weather since 2010. If not, the coldest and snowiest weather will go to France and we'll be cold and mostly dry. 

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UKMO goes South, GFS goes North. Swings and roundabouts. Either way we’re in for a fascinating spell. The Easterly is coming! It’s time to get excited folks. 

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Think i will stay out of the MOD thread tonight then :crazy:

Any how, more variations on the likely developments next week, and they sure to change a lot more by sunday...

as long as the cold air in place, and i'm not talking about the crazy -14 uppers from a few days ago showing in models then the chance of snow remains.

And i am sure, some trough, disturbance, low (whatever you want to call them) will show up more regular as we head towards monday!!!

 

Edited by doctor32

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Arpege and icon push it south too. Looks like a mainly Kent affair. This will be very annoying if it falls apart for us at this stage.

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I know your very cautious, but if only Kent gets snow and freezing weather over next week or so...

I will personally come to your house and give you £250.

This whole bbc vs met office app showing different weather and temps for next 5 days really bugging the life out of me.

 

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21 minutes ago, NickR said:

Arpege and icon push it south too. Looks like a mainly Kent affair. This will be very annoying if it falls apart for us at this stage.

The GFS has just as much of a chance of verifying as the other models. Let’s not throw the toys out of the pram just yet. The cold hasn’t even arrived yet. 

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7 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

I know your very cautious, but if only Kent gets snow and freezing weather over next week or so...

I will personally come to your house and give you £250.

This whole bbc vs met office app showing different weather and temps for next 5 days really bugging the life out of me.

 

At the very least you've made me laugh! :)

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GFS 12z big outlier from 4th March, more noticable is a large tight packed cluster @ -10.c till end of run

graphe3_1000___-1.22641509434_55.020242915_.thumb.gif.f0956fc28385b05751d52f00678fef51.gif

Edited by doctor32

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1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

GFS 12z big outlier, more noticable is a large tight packed cluster @ -10.c till end of run

graphe3_1000___-1.22641509434_55.020242915_.thumb.gif.f0956fc28385b05751d52f00678fef51.gif

Where's that for, doc? I keep losing the link to where you can enter any coords and get the ens.

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