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Paul

Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

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53 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Ensembles at day 6

gens-21-1-144.png   EDM1-144.GIF?19-0    gens-21-1-144.png

 

Day 10

gens-21-1-240.png   EDM1-240.GIF?19-0   gens-21-1-240.png

Similar trend, an easterly followed by a deep trough developing to our east as the poloar vortex swings over the top of the block to our north and allows heights to retrograde to the north west. The ECM suite probably the best of sustained cold, the GEFs trending to bring fronts up from the south/south west which could give snowfall for the south potentially.

Overall, a simply staggering set of model output, the deep cold predicted to land some time at the start of next week which sits around 6/7 days away. But the block which allows this to happen is already beginning to build so there is a real increasing chance of cold weather on a potentially epic scale. Looks like NE England could be the sweet spot having the perfect combinaition of lower heights than Scotland but a significantly larger sea track. But others should see showers push well inland on strong easterly winds with the chance of more prolonged snow developing from troughs or fronts pushing in off the continent.

We are very close to the best spell I have seen on this forum (Being here from 2012).

This sounds very encouraging for us. Fingers crossed. 

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1 minute ago, Snowmaggedon said:

This sounds very encouraging for us. Fingers crossed. 

So does Nick F post regarding steep lapse rate over north sea to help build big snow showers.

Although huge hype in SE, i believe we will benefit long term and prob see more snow. Just a hunch!

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We are in for a hammering if the charts that are on show at the moment come off.

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5 hours ago, doctor32 said:

Think your being a little reserved with your thoughts. Surely these predicted uppers of near -14c (even if watered down a touch) would bring plenty snow showers if the flow right and pressure not too high.

Going off tonights runs, plenty for us surely mate?? :good:

Most of us in the North know the power of the North Sea, in conditions no where near as strong as they appear In the models atm.

Personally, I'm actually quite worried by the outlook, and most on here know my love of the white stuff. In recent years we have become used to cold/mild/cold/mild spells. To have a potential very long lasting cold and snowy spell from the North Sea and then North Easterly without in between melts could get quite tricky but hell we're made of tough stuff up here. Bring it on ❄

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If everything verifies I’ll not be getting out of Tow Law for a while 😳

I’m off to panic buy at the supermarket tomorrow!!! 😂

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Sorry 4wd but you're on your own! 

If the charts currently forecast are correct, I think we will get intense heavy snow showers and snow depths would be impressive!

The only thing missing from this winter is a severe spell, we've had more ice/frost than most winters I remember and 6+ light snow 'covers'. Because of what may be coming combined with how consistently on the cold side it's been so far could make this a stand out winter for me.

Fingers crossed!

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This is getting bloody ridiculous now. Each morning I wake up expecting downgrades but the models are just not having none of it. I've waited so long to see another 09/10; never did I think I could see it in my lifetime again after subsequent winters. 

When do you think it's safe to warn colleagues, friends and families without the risk of it being jinxed? And surely it's only a matter of time  before the authorities and government warn people through work and the media.

Exciting times. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

This is getting bloody ridiculous now. Each morning I wake up expecting downgrades but the models are just not having none of it. I've waited so long to see another 09/10; never did I think I could see it in my lifetime again after subsequent winters. 

When do you think it's safe to warn colleagues, friends and families without the risk of it being jinxed? And surely it's only a matter of time  before the authorities and government warn people through work and the media.

Exciting times. 

With the possible impending cold spell just under a week from now, i'd wait till Friday before mentioning it to anyone. Any earlier and we will just get one hard frost :D

 

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I’m the biggest cold and snow fan you will see but at the moment I’m absolutely dreading these charts and next weeks weather . The reason being I’m going on holiday to Benidorm next Wednesday and flying out of Newcastle airport 😟 Does anyone have any idea how Newcastle airport is with snow? Can it handle it? Should I be okay ? I fly first thing 7am on the morning , I know it’s too far to be exact but any ideas be much appreciated.

 

I’m guessing at the moment the ECM will b my best hope as that delays it and I may just get away in time?

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3 hours ago, Snowstorm1 said:

I’m the biggest cold and snow fan you will see but at the moment I’m absolutely dreading these charts and next weeks weather . The reason being I’m going on holiday to Benidorm next Wednesday and flying out of Newcastle airport 😟 Does anyone have any idea how Newcastle airport is with snow? Can it handle it? Should I be okay ? I fly first thing 7am on the morning , I know it’s too far to be exact but any ideas be much appreciated.

 

I’m guessing at the moment the ECM will b my best hope as that delays it and I may just get away in time?

Back in 79' the airport was closed in February and I think also March, I live  I mile from the airport and the only possible saving grace is that  i n those days there was no airport by pass so that could be a saving grace  if the snow gets bad enough. Enjoy your holiday.

Edited by Rollo
Spelling.

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Notice how in the METO 6-15 day forecast from overnight they have dropped the Southern bias and put an emphasis on “these (snow showers) will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the East”. This Beast from the East is being upgraded by the minute; it looks fantastic for our region. 

Edited by Snowmaggedon
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1 hour ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Notice how in the METO 6-15 day forecast from overnight they have dropped the Southern bias and put an emphasis on “these (snow showers) will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the East”. This Beast from the East is being upgraded by the minute; it looks fantastic for our region. 

If they are mentioning anywhere North then expect smowmageddon, as Scotland and us rarely get mentioned unless disruption expected. I've had many surprise snow events this season, only last week an example where Meto made no mention at all of any snow for my location east of Pennines, yet had a whiteout and couldn't even see out of the Windows. I just wish it was the weekend already ❄

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S80220-14424876.thumb.jpg.5a20bfb08e777dfc97fbf712da70e7e4.jpg

Reload after reload for the North East and both the start and end of Winter has much more potential for fluffier and stickier snow which just piles up. Villagers warned me when I moved to Dipton to expect severe winters, and the fact I moved here for that reason.

I really am getting a bit excited by the current models and a bit concerned at the same time as if we have a repeat of 1903 round here then I'll be walking to work. Some of the most memorable winter are years that end in 7/8 or 2/3, just maybe ❄

S80220-14421292.jpg

S80220-14455026.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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WTF, did someone say this doesn't include convective showers 😂

S80220-15272636.jpg

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Just checking: should be OK flying from Newc on Sat am to Paris, right? No chance of its being brought forward.

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1 hour ago, NickR said:

Just checking: should be OK flying from Newc on Sat am to Paris, right? No chance of its being brought forward.

I would think your ok Saturday especially am, my folks flying back Sunday from Malaga. I've told them to be prepared to fly back to Cardiff.  Paris looking ok too

 

S80220-16370902.jpg

Edited by geordiekev

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29 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

I would think your ok Saturday especially am, my folks flying back Sunday from Malaga. I've told them to be prepared to fly back to Cardiff.  Paris looking ok too

 

S80220-16370902.jpg

Cheers! Had a choice between Friday or Saturday. Sat better for other reasons, so as long as no desperate danger of snow problems, I was going to go for that. Now booked! -9°C windchill mind!

EDIT: My folks flying back from Tenerife to Gatwick on Sunday. They'll just make it to E Kent I reckon. Though they've got no jumpers! (Southerners too!)

Edited by NickR

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Just reading the MOD thread. GFS 12z not as good as previous runs but comments made by bluearmy and Captain Shortwave implying that the model still shows the NE of Eng being hardest hit by the snow. 

Edited by Snowmaggedon
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1 minute ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Just reading the MOD thread. GFS 12z not as good as previous runs but comments made by bluearmy and Captain Shortwave implying that the model still shows the NE being hardest hit by the snow. 

Think we have peaked now with epic charts...

attention now turns to the features that will develop for good or bad over the coming days as these will determine who see the worst of the snow,cold etc etc.

also keep an eye on the high pressure, don't want more movement south or it getting to big!

 

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GFS 18z buries North Eastern England with heavy lake effect snowfall. Looking increasingly likely that we'll be amongst the hardest hit from this cold spell. 

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We need the Scandi high to be modelled further north today. Here's hoping

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Is the 06z good for us ? 00z 00000z  

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Might need a snow shovel if the 06z is right

240-780UK.thumb.GIF.47ee671e28f18a93a381018a1bbc409d.GIF

Especially as it's under-accounting for showers, and that snow all comes from a low pressure system pushing down the middle of the country.

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I think metoffice might issue early warnings for the snow/ice expected next week.

Potentially we may see them appear friday...

Just a hunch!

Looking severe this for our region.

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