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Far north and northeast of England - regional chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
11 minutes ago, NickR said:

WHen is that mainly due to fall? Friday? Sat? Sun?

Here are some more charts from early Saturday to Sunday

snowdepth_061.thumb.jpg.f51b7fa9a51d0047779b94d737b6f944.jpgsnowdepth_069.thumb.jpg.90cdcacb9690e8f00c9c97c417bf4626.jpg

snowdepth_084.thumb.jpg.fa5efb0914e763bb87572f9ae1e4fa60.jpgsnowdepth_093.thumb.jpg.04794cf58986dac75340ec879e91ac5c.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Updated snow warnings

Between 15:00 Fri 16th and 23:55 Fri 16th

A band of rain and hill snow will increasingly turn to snow through late Friday afternoon and evening. As this band moves south-westwards, ice will form in places where skies clear. Some roads and railways are likely to be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and train services. Icy patches are likely on untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths. This warning has been updated to focus purely on Friday. A separate warning has been issued to cater for snow on this band through Saturday morning and snow showers following thereafter.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain will increasingly turn to hill snow above around 200 metres during late Friday afternoon and evening. By the end of Friday evening, 2-5 cm of snow may accumulate on high ground above 200 metres. Some snow is likely even to low levels by late Friday evening with a very patchy 1-2 cm possible in places. There is some uncertainty in how quickly rain will turn to snow across the south of this area, with a small chance that these parts may only see rain starting to turn to snow during the early hours of Saturday.

_________________________________________________________

Between 00:05 Sat 17th and 23:55 Sat 17th

A band of rain will turn more widely to snow early Saturday morning followed by scattered snow showers through the remainder of the day. These showers may become more prolonged, particularly during the evening. Any melting of lying snow will lead to an ice risk on untreated surfaces on Saturday morning and night. Travel delays on roads with some vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel is possible. Some rural communities could become cut off and power cuts may occur. Some injuries from slips and falls are possible on icy surfaces.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A band of snow will move slowly south through Saturday morning with accumulations of 1-3 cm quite widely. Over higher ground above 200 metres though, 5-10 cm is likely with locally 20 cm over the highest routes. Strong easterly winds will lead to some deep drifts of snow. Snow accumulations will be more variable during the day. Some melting of lying snow is expected, but locally 1-3 cm is possible where showers are more frequent. Showers are likely to become more frequent across the southeast into the evening, with narrow bands of up to 5 cm of snow accumulating.

_________________________________________________________

Between 00:05 Sun 18th and 23:55 Sun 18th

Snow showers are likely to continue throughout Sunday, and where these converge some snow may well accumulate and could then prove disruptive. There is a small chance that snow may fall for a longer period across southern, and particularly south eastern regions for a time on Sunday. There is a chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel. There is a chance that power cuts will occur and services, such as mobile phone, may be affected. There is a small chance that some rural communities could become cut off.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Not all places will see snow showers, but where they do form locally 1-3 cm of snow is possible in places. Furthermore, showers may become organised into bands at times resulting in locally around 5 cm accumulating, with this most likely near the Thames Estuary and the Wash. Some melting of lying snow is expected during the middle of the day. Should the small chance of a more organised band of snow affecting the southern and south eastern regions come into fruition, a more widespread 2-5 cm could be possible here, with some low level areas seeing 10 cm. High ground could see locally 10-20 cm. Some isolated ice patches may form where run off from saturated fields freezes overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-18

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Level 3 cold weather alert issued

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:27 on Thu 15 Mar 2018

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather and locally heavy snow between 2100 on Friday 16 Mar and 0900 on Tuesday 20 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and could disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

A cold easterly airflow is expected to return during the weekend, likely lasting until Monday. At present it looks unlikely to be as severe as the conditions experienced at the start of the month, but unusually low temperatures and some snowfall are still expected.

After a relatively mild period this week, trigger criteria for low temperatures are likely to be met quickly across England from Saturday onwards, with the cold air first arriving during Friday night across the northeast. Widespread frost, low daytime temperatures and a significant wind chill are likely to develop. Snowfall looks likely across high ground Friday into Saturday, with snow showers following behind and affecting low-lying areas, especially in the east. A chance of more persistent snow across southern and perhaps parts of the Midlands Saturday night into Sunday, with some uncertainty at this stage. The highest confidence is in respect to the predicted low temperatures. Keep in touch with the Met Office weather warnings regarding snowfall over the coming days.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

My thoughts:

Rain turning to snow at most levels during Friday evening away from coastal areas.

This giving some decent accumulations on high ground and by Saturday morning this will be fading away only to be followed by snow/hail showers.

Snow showers becoming more organised and heavy during saturday night giving some large accumulations for some, not all.

Snow showers easing during sunday afternoon.

Cold throughout with bitter easterly winds and noticable windchill.

Also to note, sun much stonger so places with fewer showers during day light hours will notice a thaw of any lying snow.

Radar watching key as we all know in these set ups, it's a lottery to who gets what.

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
23 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

My thoughts:

Rain turning to snow at most levels during Friday evening away from coastal areas.

This giving some decent accumulations on high ground and by Saturday morning this will be fading away only to be followed by snow/hail showers.

Snow showers becoming more organised and heavy during saturday night giving some large accumulations for some, not all.

Snow showers easing during sunday afternoon.

Cold throughout with bitter easterly winds and noticable windchill.

Also to note, sun much stonger so places with fewer showers during day light hours will notice a thaw of any lying snow.

Radar watching key as we all know in these set ups, it's a lottery to who gets what.

I might go the Weardale > Hartside > Lakes > Manchester kamikaze route. Wish me luck!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Well well well, you never guess what?...

we only have another episode of Metoffice Vs BBC/Meteogroup (round 134)

Just seen our regional forecast on look north, aparently saturday mostly dry with a few snow showers and sunday 1 or 2 snow showers :cc_confused:

Vs

Metoffice saying this:

Very cold Saturday and Sunday with snow showers and locally significant accumulations, together with bitter easterly winds. Likely becoming less cold again during Monday with mainly dry conditions.

Come on BBC, sort it out!!!

Edited by doctor32
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Pennines looking like the sweet spot, shame I'm away in Wales for my birthday over the weekend but most should catch some and still time to adjust and things to pop up in the flow. At least it didn't head into France as predicted a few days ago, but recent history told us this could well change for the better.

ezgif-2-208d785591.gif

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
1 hour ago, geordiekev said:

Pennines looking like the sweet spot, shame I'm away in Wales for my birthday over the weekend but most should catch some and still time to adjust and things to pop up in the flow. At least it didn't head into France as predicted a few days ago, but recent history told us this could well change for the better.

ezgif-2-208d785591.gif

I might revise my "let's go over the N Pennines to Manchester to avoid the M62" idea...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
3 minutes ago, NickR said:

I might revise my "let's go over the N Pennines to Manchester to avoid the M62" idea...

Absolutely A1M M62 would be the safest route, these roads will be the priority to keep clear 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A case of nowcasting and radar watching as it should be with regard to snow prospects. As with the last cold spell, marked divergence between Met Office and BBC forecasts, the former going for snow here both Saturday and Sunday, the latter just cloud- indeed the BBC graphics are shocking, the snow just looks like getting stuck over the Pennines, whilst the front is due to move SW, through Cumbria. Last time this happened on the 28th we had a few inches yet BBC were saying just cloud.

I'm with the Met Office, however, again there warning areas are odd, you just don't get neat straight lines through Cumbria, the high ground/topography makes forecasting snow here very difficult. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
13 minutes ago, NickR said:

I might revise my "let's go over the N Pennines to Manchester to avoid the M62" idea...

In driving back from Ruthin Castle near  Chester on Sunday, will defo be a nowcasting event. My roommate is going to think (realise) I'm mad when I'm up all night watching the radar. Hoping to get some nice pics of the castle hopefully. It'll feel like a real birthday fairytale. I might even get my east17 coat out ❄⛄❄

S80315-21520941.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
On 13/03/2018 at 12:21, geordiekev said:

The last spell had it going into France at 5 days out and look what happened. As usual with snow it's best to wait until 48h to see what pops up in the flow. At this time of year marginal snow outshines grainy easterlies but the excitement begins.

 

On 13/03/2018 at 22:48, seabreeze86 said:

You could be right but this cold spell is completely different to the last one synopticly. The models always underestimate blocking especially these small wedges like in this spell approaching. The problem is here the wedge is getting to strong and cutting of the undercut we need to keep the instability and the core of the cold far enough north for us. Of course this can all still change but we need the southward adjustments to stop or reverse asap

Our wishful thinking obviously worked. Perhaps one thing we've learnt from the Beast trilogy ? is that we can expect models to forecast these things too far South at more than 3 days out. After all they are just attempts using their programmed algorithms, which may need adjusting after experiences this month.

arpegeuk-16-69-0.png

Edited by geordiekev
Now that's what I call a BEAST ?
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Looks like saturday night into sunday morning is the prime slot for our region, expect some very heavy snow showers forming during this period... Prolonged in places giving some accumulations around 5cm plus.

Will be the night i decide to stay up lampost and radar watching.

Hopefully some thundersnow like the last few occasions 

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

Carnt believe snow is making a return lol . Horrible out there now windy and very wet 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

BBC just said on there forecast this morning a few snow flurries in the east. Where do they get these forecasts from every model I've seen has decent showers getting going. There graphics are about as clear as muck. Think so lucky places at low levels will get 5-10cm higher places double that 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met office morning update

Saturday:

Bitterly cold with strong easterly winds. Some ice in places at first. Bright spells and scattered snow showers through the day, with slight accumulations likely, partially melting in sunny spells. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Bitterly cold easterly winds and scattered snow showers will continue through Sunday, these easing overnight. Drier, less windy and less cold during Monday and Tuesday, but with overnight frosts continuing.

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

It's been disgusting out there for something like 36 hours or more now. Just horrible.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Met office morning update

Saturday:

Bitterly cold with strong easterly winds. Some ice in places at first. Bright spells and scattered snow showers through the day, with slight accumulations likely, partially melting in sunny spells. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Bitterly cold easterly winds and scattered snow showers will continue through Sunday, these easing overnight. Drier, less windy and less cold during Monday and Tuesday, but with overnight frosts continuing.

Well that sounds very underwhelming, and tbh i think low levels will struggle to get lying snow, the ground is absolutely sodden and the ground temps are going to be a few degrees above zero, hope i am wrong of course 

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Posted
  • Location: Hartburn / Stockton-on-Tees
  • Location: Hartburn / Stockton-on-Tees

In all honesty if we have 2 days of snow and kids can enjoy it with it being weekend that will be fine for me. 
We have had a great winter / spring but i am looking forward to some warm sunshine. Yesterday and today's black dull days can wait another 9 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
12 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Well that sounds very underwhelming, and tbh i think low levels will struggle to get lying snow, the ground is absolutely sodden and the ground temps are going to be a few degrees above zero, hope i am wrong of course 

Don't underestimate how quick things can turn white, especially overnight.

Saturday night/sunday morning our best chance.

Tonights snow depend where heaviest ppn lasts longest...

As ever radar watching it will be.

Enjoy peeps :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Don't underestimate how quick things can turn white, especially overnight.

Saturday night/sunday morning our best chance.

Tonights snow depend where heaviest ppn lasts longest...

As ever radar watching it will be.

Enjoy peeps :cold:

If there's an item on Look North tomorrow about a frustrated dad having gone insane and trying to dig himself a path to Old Trafford to watch the FA Cup game with his son... you'll know exactly who it is.

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Snow, Thunder, cold crisp ice days
  • Location: Gateshead

When walking the dog this morning. The ground was totally waterlogged. Can start to see small bits of ice in the non stop rain. 

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