Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[Summer Sun]

Looking pretty cold over the weekend as we get another cold snap whether it will be like the spell at the end of Feb and earlier this month in terms of snow remains to be seen

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday, cloudy and feeling colder with rain spreading northeast. Coastal gales possible. Friday, windy with further rain at times. Saturday, turning colder again, still windy with some snow likely.

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 cold weather alert issued

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:56 on Tue 13 Mar 2018

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 16 Mar and 0900 on Monday 19 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

A cold easterly airflow is expected to re-develop during the coming weekend, likely lasting until early next week, however at present looks unlikely to be as severe as the conditions experienced at the start of the month.

After a relatively mild period this week, trigger criteria for low temperatures are likely to be met quickly across most parts of England from Saturday onwards, with the cold air first arriving during Friday night across the east. Widespread frost, low daytime temperatures and a significant wind chill are likely to develop. Snow also becomes an increasing risk, especially across the higher Pennines for a time Friday night, but then after that the main focus of snow is in the south and east late Saturday onwards, with many northern and western parts likely staying mainly dry. There is currently a lot of uncertainty about snowfall location, timing and amounts, but there is high confidence in low temperatures countrywide. The alerts are likely to be updated in the days to come when confidence in the story grows.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[seabreeze86]

Looking like another bite of the winter cherry for us this weekend. Couldn't care less if it only lasts a couple of days as long it's as potent as being suggested. My only issue is that there is still time for adjustments I have a feeling it might shift the coldest flow south. Hope I am very wrong though

[geordiekev]

23 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Looking like another bite of the winter cherry for us this weekend. Couldn't care less if it only lasts a couple of days as long it's as potent as being suggested. My only issue is that there is still time for adjustments I have a feeling it might shift the coldest flow south. Hope I am very wrong though

The last spell had it going into France at 5 days out and look what happened. As usual with snow it's best to wait until 48h to see what pops up in the flow. At this time of year marginal snow outshines grainy easterlies but the excitement begins.

There's still 2.5m icebergs 8m in length at our local tescos although they are black with pollution. Will look impressive with a fresh covering and well worth a photo shoot.

[doctor32]

Once again it seems like we have to wait for an age to see what this cold beasterly brings at weekend?

Models playing around with ideas of where to place the high once the cold arrives.

Cold weather - 100%

Snow - 90%

Disruptive snow - ????

Any signs of spring - zilch 

[Boro Snow]

A definite nip in the air tonight currently 1.1c 

[seabreeze86]

10 hours ago, geordiekev said:

The last spell had it going into France at 5 days out and look what happened. As usual with snow it's best to wait until 48h to see what pops up in the flow. At this time of year marginal snow outshines grainy easterlies but the excitement begins.

There's still 2.5m icebergs 8m in length at our local tescos although they are black with pollution. Will look impressive with a fresh covering and well worth a photo shoot.

You could be right but this cold spell is completely different to the last one synopticly. The models always underestimate blocking especially these small wedges like in this spell approaching. The problem is here the wedge is getting to strong and cutting of the undercut we need to keep the instability and the core of the cold far enough north for us. Of course this can all still change but we need the southward adjustments to stop or reverse asap

[doctor32]

Looking like the beast used up all his power last time round, more of a fleeting blow this weekend as that pesky high builds in over uk pushing the cold much further south.

Looking at majority of models this morning.

[Boro Snow]

Sorry it's my fault I told Nathaniel yesterday morning we would be building his 7th snowman since November this weekend, 

[seabreeze86]

30 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Sorry it's my fault I told Nathaniel yesterday morning we would be building his 7th snowman since November this weekend, 

Wouldn't give up yet Boro Snow still time to correct north odds against at the minute but not out of the question. The ECM ensemble mean is still decent must be a few members still having the low further north

[Summer Sun]

Met office forecast for the weekend

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Friday, likely wet and windy, then turning colder overnight with hill snow. Turning much colder Saturday with scattered snow showers later. Sunday, very cold but mostly dry, winds moderating later.

[Summer Sun]

Snow and ice warning issued

Between 17:00 Fri 16th and 09:00 Sat 17th

A band of rain and hill snow will increasingly turn to snow to lower levels through Friday evening and overnight into Saturday. This band will gradually ease during Saturday morning as it moves south-westwards, allowing ice to form as it clears. Some roads and railways are likely to be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and train services. Icy patches are likely on untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain will increasingly turn to hill snow above around 200 m during Friday evening. By Saturday morning 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate on high ground above 200 m. Some snow is expected even to low levels overnight into Saturday morning across the warning area with a patchy 1-2 cm possible in places.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=ne&date=2018-03-16&regionType=area

[Boro Snow]

A patchy 1-2cm below 200m how on earth does that warrant a warning

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

A patchy 1-2cm below 200m how on earth does that warrant a warning

I know it is ridiculous if the country can't cope with 1 or 2cm something is seriously wrong  

[NorthEastSnow]

Wow hang about. Met clearly have this wrong. 

I have attached the correct warning areas. 

[NickR]

OK guys. I need to drive to Manchester on Saturday. Need to get there by 4pm. Thoughts on whether I'll be able to? Should be possible to avoid awful snow and roads should be OK? I'm currently thinking that if the S of the region looks bad/Leeds, I could head over via Cumbria and then down. Thoughts?

[doctor32]

41 minutes ago, NickR said:

OK guys. I need to drive to Manchester on Saturday. Need to get there by 4pm. Thoughts on whether I'll be able to? Should be possible to avoid awful snow and roads should be OK? I'm currently thinking that if the S of the region looks bad/Leeds, I could head over via Cumbria and then down. Thoughts?

Keep eye on forecast. Bit tricky at the moment regarding where worst of snow will be.

[NickR]

27 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Keep eye on forecast. Bit tricky at the moment regarding where worst of snow will be.

That's how I'm seeing it. Right now the worst of it looks like overnight Friday to Saturday. If they can clear it, then I should be OK as it doesn't look as bad during the day. Realistically I can leave anytime from 7am to 3pm. Gives me a bit of a window. Might end up just gauging the radar and traffic reports on google maps.

[Summer Sun]

Afternoon update from the met office

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Wet and windy Friday, turning colder later with hill snow. Much colder and windy Saturday with perhaps a snow shower. Cold Sunday, with a few snow showers, winds slowly easing.

[Summer Sun]

Arpege 12z snow depth to Sunday 18z

[Snowmaggedon]

Hmm this might not be as bad as first thought? Looks like it has upgraded again. 

[doctor32]

Models and hi res models look much better this morning for snow chances here.

Plenty of snow friday night and not just restricted to high ground. Looking more likely we will see plenty heavy snow showers over the weekend too.

Metoffice text update sounds promising aswell.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Very cold Saturday and Sunday with snow showers and accumulations likely, together with bitter easterly winds. Likely becoming less cold again during Monday with mainly dry and fine conditions.

Edited March 15, 2018 by doctor32

[Summer Sun]

Arpege 00z giving 35cm for the Pennines NY Moors around 15cm to 20cm lower ground more uncertain with some areas like Newcastle seeing very little but others seeing up to 8cm

 

Edited March 15, 2018 by Summer Sun

[NickR]

59 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege 00z giving 35cm for the Pennines NY Moors around 15cm to 20cm lower ground more uncertain with some areas like Newcastle seeing very little but others seeing up to 8cm

 

WHen is that mainly due to fall? Friday? Sat? Sun?

[Rollo]

Most likely in the early hours of Saturday morning for quite an extended period,possibly sooner depending on your elevation.