Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[doctor32]

Updated garden pic, really thought at least a dusting on grass would be present by now.

Oh well, hopefully will look v different in the morning...

[tynevalleysnow]

21 minutes ago, Freezing-Point said:

Good chance of you getting snowed in up there

Wouldn’t be the first time 

[NickR]

7 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Updated garden pic, really thought at least a dusting on grass would be present by now.

Oh well, hopefully will look v different in the morning...

Want to use this after me after all, doc?

[Summer Sun]

Temps at 14:10

Glorious in western Spain chilly but not too cold for the UK brass monkeys out east

 

[rdt123]

Getting a bad feeling about this event. Surprised that the temp is still 3 degrees here. Tonight’s snow seems to slip south of teesside and Wednesday’s showers look to be mainly expected further north . Fingers crossed but even summaries on Netweather forecasts have changed to light showers with all mention of moderate or heavy gone throughout the week

[NickR]

10 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Getting a bad feeling about this event. Surprised that the temp is still 3 degrees here. Tonight’s snow seems to slip south of teesside and Wednesday’s showers look to be mainly expected further north . Fingers crossed but even summaries on Netweather forecasts have changed to light showers with all mention of moderate or heavy gone throughout the week

One thing I'm unclear about is that I've always thought we needed a northerly element to any Easterly for it to really be good for our region (or, at least, most of the region). This event has no such element from what I can tell.

[rdt123]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

One thing I'm unclear about is that I've always thought we needed a northerly element to any Easterly for it to really be good for our region (or, at least, most of the region). This event has no such element from what I can tell.

A straight easterly should be a long enough drag given the conditions, at least that’s what I’ve been reading on the model thread. 4 degrees here now, very odd

[Summer Sun]

Well apart from tomorrow the met office week ahead forecast doesn't have that much snow around despite the amber warning on Wednesday

Cold air peaks on Thursday

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

One thing I'm unclear about is that I've always thought we needed a northerly element to any Easterly for it to really be good for our region (or, at least, most of the region). This event has no such element from what I can tell.

I think that is true to some extent.  The problem with a direct Easterly is that the showers are dispersed and pass over quickly.  Unless there are disturbances such as the one coming tonight OR a low coming up from the south, like what happened in 1991 when we got about a foot overnight.  With the North Easterly and a slacker flow you are more likely to get streamers set up as we saw in 2010, which tend to concentrate the PPN down the east side

[NickR]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Well apart from tomorrow the met office week ahead forecast doesn't have that much snow around despite the amber warning on Wednesday

Cold air peaks on Thursday

To be fair, that looks better for us as a whole then I'd expected.

[NL]

6 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Getting a bad feeling about this event. Surprised that the temp is still 3 degrees here. Tonight’s snow seems to slip south of teesside and Wednesday’s showers look to be mainly expected further north . Fingers crossed but even summaries on Netweather forecasts have changed to light showers with all mention of moderate or heavy gone throughout the week

I think they maybe something wrong with your thermometer.. I live not too far from the coast and this weather-station http://www.southshields-weather.co.uk/Today's_weather.htm is even closer and we have temps of only 1.4℃. Going to be another case of nowcasting whether tonight's small Lp has a direct hit to our region.

[Rollo]

Predicting cold is easier than predicting snowfall ,I would have thought it is near impossible for our area to remain snowless,I urge patience and we will be rewarded.

[garylaverick]

If you pop in to the Yorkshire and E England thread you'll see they are similarly anxious. Let's be patient, let the flow establish and see what pops up once it is going properly. Temp isn't a worry to me as here in Washington everything that has fell today has been snow anyway and it's only due to get colder, dew points are well in the negative.

Regarding wind direction, you can see there is quite a northerly element to the winds at the 700hPa level, which are the winds which steer the clouds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-700hpa/3h.htm

[ZK099]

Lads. This is the stable air. I've had snow showers all day, nothing accumulating but this is the stable air. Imagine tomorrow when the lower heights and temperatures come in. This snowfall today is a lot more than forecast in terms of convection. Got a feeling that a lot more of you will be happier tomorrow once the North Sea fully activates. 

[seabreeze86]

Don't worry guys we as well placed as anyone as soon as this low cloud does one convection will get going,as for tonight looking good. You can see on sat24 much better showers out to sea and that low looks menacing coming out of Sweden 

[doctor32]

Chill people, AMBER warning just issued for tonight/tomorrow lol

Between 03:00 Tue 27th and 11:00 Tue 27th

Snow showers or longer periods of snow are expected on Tuesday, accompanied by very low temperatures. The heaviest, most persistent snow looks likely to cross the area during the morning - the focus has been adjusted northwards to take into account latest ideas, removing Lincolnshire but adding more of Yorkshire and areas towards Manchester, Teesside, Durham and Newcastle. There is the likelihood of travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Further snow showers are expected through Tuesday, with the likelihood that a more organised area of snow will push southwest during the morning, bringing 5 to 10 cm of snow in places in just a few hours. Strong winds may lead to drifting of lying snow (and severe wind chill) especially over hills, with lightning perhaps an additional hazard near North Sea coasts.

Edited February 26, 2018 by doctor32

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

Chill people, AMBER warning just issued for tonight/tomorrow lol

Indeed 

[Summer Sun]

Arpege 06z snow totals

[Stozzy]

Uprgraded warning further north . Glad it envolves most of the north east . Looks like I'm in a good position for tonight . May change however 

[garylaverick]

You lot were quick to get that up! I've only just got the email. I think somewhere between Redcar and Whitby could be the sweetest spot.

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege 06z snow totals

Not looking good for N. Newcastle where I am.  Hope the prediction is 20 miles wrong to the South.

[Freezing-Point]

Just now, Stozzy said:

Uprgraded warning further north . Glad it envolves most of the north east . Looks like I'm in a good position for tonight . May change however 

Please post link

[doctor32]

Just now, Freezing-Point said:

Please post link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-27

[Freezing-Point]

2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-27

I am just out the Amber area. Still happy with yellow.  Plenty of time yet

[Summer Sun]

Another view up towards Northumberland by 6am Thursday