Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[Rollo]

This promises to be a once in a lifetime event but trying to second guess how much of the white stuff will accumulate will drive you mad, our area will get plenty and not long to wait now, as to The GFS breakdown it is best left to later next week. I have seen lows battling against entrenched cold before but they quite often give up and fill and slide east. I think after a week of road chaos and bitter temperatures many will be ready for the delayed spring when it should arrive.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Rollo
Predictive text.

[doctor32]

Not as frosty this morning, still cold though.

Great models again this morning, don't focus on gfs in latter stages.

Likely the cold spell will be prolonged as the days go by. 

[Nice Ice Babe]

15 hours ago, doctor32 said:

You should do well then 

Hia. We often do. It's really odd often along the team valley there is nothing and as you climb the hill you go through a snow line. However next week I should imagine the snow will be every where. ?

[Cloud 10]

Looks like kick-off for this cold spell will be tomorrow evening with a band of showers coming in off the North Sea in association with the arrival of very cold upper air,although probably nothing to heavy at this stage.

 

After that its pretty much bonkers cold and snow for the rest of the week.

 

 

[Snowmaggedon]

Further warnings of snow put in place by the Met Office; Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. More than 20cm by Wednesday night.

[Cloud 10]

Met office updated warnings are out and are well worth a read.

 

UK weather forecast - Met Office

 

I especially like the mention of lightning.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Cloud 10

[Snowmaggedon]

My Dad lands at Newcastle Airport from Dubai next Saturday morning. What's the chances of air travel being disrupted? 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Snowmaggedon

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

My Dad lands at Newcastle Airport from Dubai next Saturday morning. What's the chances of air travel being disrupted? 

Impossible to say at this range

Warning for Wednesday

Between 00:05 Wed 28th and 23:55 Wed 28th

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Showers will bring a large variation in amounts of snow across even small areas with some places seeing very little snow. There is the potential for 10-15 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent whilst nearby locations may see much less frequent showers and only small accumulations of 1-3 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of snow, and lightning could be an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel coasts. By the end of Wednesday, more than 20 cm may have accumulated in places in some eastern counties of England, Scotland and Norther Ireland from a culmination of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow showers.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-28

[Geordiesnow]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Impossible to say at this range

Warning for Wednesday

Between 00:05 Wed 28th and 23:55 Wed 28th

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Showers will bring a large variation in amounts of snow across even small areas with some places seeing very little snow. There is the potential for 10-15 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent whilst nearby locations may see much less frequent showers and only small accumulations of 1-3 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of snow, and lightning could be an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel coasts. By the end of Wednesday, more than 20 cm may have accumulated in places in some eastern counties of England, Scotland and Norther Ireland from a culmination of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow showers.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-28

I don't know how in God's name that chief forecaster would suggest some places may only receive 1 to 3CMs especially not in the North East in any case. 2 to 3 days perhaps of the classic sunshine and snow showers set up, radar should be rife with PPN especially midweek.

Got to say though for south eastern areas of the UK because the winds are switching more to a ESE'LY then they might not receive as much as they might think! 

[Summer Sun]

A snowy high

 

[doctor32]

32 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I don't know how in God's name that chief forecaster would suggest some places may only receive 1 to 3CMs especially not in the North East in any case. 2 to 3 days perhaps of the classic sunshine and snow showers set up, radar should be rife with PPN especially midweek.

Got to say though for south eastern areas of the UK because the winds are switching more to a ESE'LY then they might not receive as much as they might think! 

I am sure nearer the time warnings will update to show prone areas, separate warnings possible and of course amber once certainty becomes higher.

All in all, we are the best placed at the moment... Unless the blizzard showing at latter stages of week comes off (unlikely)

[Dahonis]

Just been into the mod thread. Whilst I don't understand all of what's said ?, you would think this is just a southern event. Folks are looking for the end of the spell rather than just enjoying what will be, going over things that can't possibly me modelled correctly is futile and is inducing Prozac related comments. From my limited knowledge of such things.......I have stocked the cupboards and freezer to the brim. If we have a power cut I will have to have a massive BBQ ?

[damianslaw]

I'm normally in the NW thread, but given the expected weather in the days ahead, it seems apt that I stick to this thread, far north includes Cumbria anyway.

The long drawn nature of the easterly and the strength of the wind should help to drive precipitation across the Pennines deep into Cumbria. Last time we had a snowy easterly was late March 2013, but on this occasion air temps will be lower, less solar energy as well, so snow should fall down to sea level and stick despite the sunshine trying its best to thaw.

Already today, the ground is hard still out of the sun, and we have temps nudging 5 degrees. 

I'm hoping for a 26 Jan/27 Jan 1996 event when we managed 5 inches as a frontal/trough feature moved east-west. The synoptical build up mirrors late Jan 96 in many respects, but I think this one will be even colder!

Lots to look forward too, could be a memorable spell, that is talked about for a long time to come, held in similiar regard to March 2013 -but that was very exceptional, given the depth of cold that occurred at such a stage in the year, late Feb and early March has produced some notably very cold weather even in recent years, and sometimes the coldest weather of the year, a bit like early Sept delivering very warm heatwave type conditions. It also reemphasises the point that easterlies and northerlies become far more likely from mid Feb through until May, than at any other time of the year.

[paddydog]

Does anyone know what the 7 day forecast widget thing on the main site is based on? It shows constant snow Tuesday to Friday for me, which seems unlikely. I understand there's a possibility of quite a bit but why does it show snow in every 3 hour time slot for about 4 days? 

[NickR]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm normally in the NW thread, but given the expected weather in the days ahead, it seems apt that I stick to this thread, far north includes Cumbria anyway.

The long drawn nature of the easterly and the strength of the wind should help to drive precipitation across the Pennines deep into Cumbria. Last time we had a snowy easterly was late March 2013, but on this occasion air temps will be lower, less solar energy as well, so snow should fall down to sea level and stick despite the sunshine trying its best to thaw.

Already today, the ground is hard still out of the sun, and we have temps nudging 5 degrees. 

I'm hoping for a 26 Jan/27 Jan 1996 event when we managed 5 inches as a frontal/trough feature moved east-west. The synoptical build up mirrors late Jan 96 in many respects, but I think this one will be even colder!

Lots to look forward too, could be a memorable spell, that is talked about for a long time to come, held in similiar regard to March 2013 -but that was very exceptional, given the depth of cold that occurred at such a stage in the year, late Feb and early March has produced some notably very cold weather even in recent years, and sometimes the coldest weather of the year, a bit like early Sept delivering very warm heatwave type conditions. It also reemphasises the point that easterlies and northerlies become far more likely from mid Feb through until May, than at any other time of the year.

Good post!

Yes, March seems to have provided some decent stuff in recent years. March 2013 (stretching to early April) was notable for me for the contrast between the Pennines and here in Durham. I took a jaunt up to Harwood in Upper Teasdale 1 April and took these (the pole was 5 feet long, by the way)... then I came back home to Durham and planted my broad beans!!!!

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, NickR said:

Good post!

Yes, March seems to have provided some decent stuff in recent years. March 2013 (stretching to early April) was notable for me for the contrast between the Pennines and here in Durham. I took a jaunt up to Harwood in Upper Teasdale 1 April and took these (the pole was 5 feet long, by the way)... then I came back home to Durham and planted my broad beans!!!!

I often class March as part of winter, it is on average nearly as snowy as December, sometimes, quite often more so, and temperature wise very similar as well. On the high ground it is very much still winter. There have been severe spells of cold weather in March with much snow / blizzards. Its a bit like September in the SE of England which has increasingly become an extension of the summer, often warmer than June.

We have to remember SST values are at there lowest as we enter March, the arctic is also at its lowest, and an airstream from between north and south east will often be very wintry even into April.

The only marked difference between March and the winter months is when we see high pressure build in from the south and centre over the country, it can deliver very mild weather by March, and by the end of the month almost summerlike, think March 2012, the increasing strength of the sun, and warming ground is notable by the end of the month. Early March though in an average feel often still feels wintry, a potent northerly in early March is every bit as cold as potent northerly in January.

[ZK099]

3 hours ago, Snowmaggedon said:

My Dad lands at Newcastle Airport from Dubai next Saturday morning. What's the chances of air travel being disrupted? 

Very high

[J-Man]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I don't know how in God's name that chief forecaster would suggest some places may only receive 1 to 3CMs especially not in the North East in any case. 2 to 3 days perhaps of the classic sunshine and snow showers set up, radar should be rife with PPN especially midweek.

Got to say though for south eastern areas of the UK because the winds are switching more to a ESE'LY then they might not receive as much as they might think! 

Completely agree, the NE coastal area will be knee deep...1-3cm...no chance.  Whitby will be cut off as usual, Consett will have drifts up to people's windows and the A1 in Northumberland will be blocked from Morpeth north to Belford. 

[gordonm]

hope you're right J-Man!

 

[4wd]

There won't be as much as December 2010 though because then winds were more from NE with longer fetch to pick up moisture, and sea was at 10C or higher not 5C.
Also this spell can't last for weeks as spring advances. 
It is a lot more like March 2013 but the worst part of that was later in the month with an ice day here on the 11th.
Amounts of snow (here) were not very great but a lot of days has snow falling.

Edited February 24, 2018 by 4wd

[J-Man]

1 minute ago, gordonm said:

hope you're right J-Man!

 

Every met forecast (website) for my area over past few days has shown an upgrade in terms of snow, looking at relentless snow falling over 3 day period. Even as showers the breaks between would be shorted lived. I am personally expecting record snow fall for my area of the Northumberland coast....we dont often get much 2010 was a special time but think we'll beat it in 2018.

 

[J-Man]

1 minute ago, 4wd said:

There won't be as much as December 2010 though because then winds were more from NE with longer fetch to pick up moisture, and sea was at 10C or higher not 5C.
Also this spell can't last for weeks as spring advances. 

Yeah but the uppers are colder so the difference between that and sea temp should be close to 2010. Also stronger sun = more convection and the fetch from Norway to our area or say Netherlands is neither here nor there.  Maybe im being over positive time will tell.

[Summer Sun]

Estimated snow totals to Friday

 

[J-Man]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Estimated snow totals to Friday

 

I really think that figure is massively underestimated. 15cm totals over a 4/5 day period? The latest BBC forecast was warning people to be prepared, stock up etc due to the snow potential. 15cm over that period wouldn't cause that much disruption, councils would be able to keep on top of it.

Place your bets. I'll go double that as minimum.

[gordonm]

where about are you on coast J-man? im about 4 miles in from druridge bay, yea 2010 was last time we had decent snow. we totally missed march 2013!

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by gordonm
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