Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[Snowmaggedon]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Vast majority don't

That’s the North East buried then. 

[rdt123]

Having been on here for a decade these Synoptics are a dream come true and frankly I’m a little emotional( sad I know).

charts like these would have been a dream in FI but we are just hours out. I still have an awful feeling that we will get a dusting and wonder what the fuss was about. Given the flow and the potential convective activity I’m sure I should be more positive. Once I stayed up and had a bottle of wine, convinced I wouldn’t be going to work the next day. The front broke down over the North Sea and gave us half an inch, bitten so many times!

excited - butterflies even at times , we shall see

Edited February 23, 2018 by rdt123

[doctor32]

13 minutes ago, NickR said:

For a combination of significant work, personal, family, and weather events, I don't think I have EVER known a week like this. To be frank, it's more than a bit overwhelming. If any of you guys fancy a pint around Durham if we can get there, I'm up for it, by the way. 

Level with on that, life can be manic sometimes... I am running my own business from scratch and it is very stressful, 7 day weeks and never stop.

This place is my escapism... More than happy to catch up work and weather permitting 

[Thundery wintry showers]

In my experience the GFS precipitation charts often underdo convection over the North Sea when we get easterlies.  I don't think you'll get quite as much from this as you did in late November/early December 2010 because of the lower sea surface temperatures at this time of year, but that's not saying much.  Tuesday/Wednesday of next week looks to be the peak time for showery activity as the low 850hPa temperatures are forecast to be combined with a trough at 500hPa which should lead to the air mass becoming very unstable as it crosses the North Sea, and there may also be some well-scattered reports of thundersnow. 

After Wednesday the air mass looks set to become less unstable, meaning shallower convection, and there's a possibility of the weather turning mostly dry and cloudy, but this is far from certain- the air masses on tonight's ECMWF run look unstable enough to keep the region in a sunshine-and-snow-showers type of regime through to next weekend.

I'll be interested to see how temperatures and snow cover will behave in this area of the country, especially on days that feature a fair amount of sunshine in between the showers, as the sun is starting to get quite strong by this time of year.  Sub zero maxima in sunshine in March are rare events near sea level, but we may well see some in the upcoming spell.

Going by previous experience I wouldn't get your hopes up too much about these systems coming up from the south- often these end up being revised further south as we get nearer the time, and they often tend to fizzle north of the Midlands.  There have been rare exceptions such as mid-March 1979, but it's normally North Sea convection that brings the majority of snow in "easterly" setups in this part of the country.  But as midweek looks a prime setup for North Sea convection that may not turn out to be much of an issue.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended not quite for us a shift north and it would be game on

[Stozzy]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended not quite for us a shift north and it would be game on

Showers still coming in from the snow machine North Sea though ?

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Showers still coming in from the snow machine North Sea though ?

Possibly would all depend on intensity that low down south would give them a right pasting

[Steady Easterly]

31 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In my experience the GFS precipitation charts often underdo convection over the North Sea when we get easterlies.  I don't think you'll get quite as much from this as you did in late November/early December 2010 because of the lower sea surface temperatures at this time of year, but that's not saying much.  Tuesday/Wednesday of next week looks to be the peak time for showery activity as the low 850hPa temperatures are forecast to be combined with a trough at 500hPa which should lead to the air mass becoming very unstable as it crosses the North Sea, and there may also be some well-scattered reports of thundersnow. 

After Wednesday the air mass looks set to become less unstable, meaning shallower convection, and there's a possibility of the weather turning mostly dry and cloudy, but this is far from certain- the air masses on tonight's ECMWF run look unstable enough to keep the region in a sunshine-and-snow-showers type of regime through to next weekend.

I'll be interested to see how temperatures and snow cover will behave in this area of the country, especially on days that feature a fair amount of sunshine in between the showers, as the sun is starting to get quite strong by this time of year.  Sub zero maxima in sunshine in March are rare events near sea level, but we may well see some in the upcoming spell.

Going by previous experience I wouldn't get your hopes up too much about these systems coming up from the south- often these end up being revised further south as we get nearer the time, and they often tend to fizzle north of the Midlands.  There have been rare exceptions such as mid-March 1979, but it's normally North Sea convection that brings the majority of snow in "easterly" setups in this part of the country.  But as midweek looks a prime setup for North Sea convection that may not turn out to be much of an issue.

The heaviest and deepest snow i have seen was in the feb-march 79 spell you mention, seen nothing like it since including 2010,most of that snow came at first from convection, sea temperatures that Winter were a good deal colder than now, increased solar heating at this time of year helps.

[geordiekev]

4 hours ago, Dahonis said:

Anyone willing to take an estimated depth of snow for their area yet?

Location Dipton near Consett, estimated snow depth ??? I'm just hoping this is enough for my short commute up my 20m driveway to the main road. 160kg for a bargain price of 30 quid delivered from Travis Perkins. I'll look a right divvy if all I get is couple of cm ?

Edited February 23, 2018 by geordiekev

[Snowmaggedon]

5 minutes ago, BA Baracus said:

Snowy feature well on its way Monday night into Tuesday.

BANK.

[NickR]

Dear God it's constant snow for us at 120

[seabreeze86]

There is going to be some impressive totals by the end of next week, wouldn't rule out prolonged snow especially Wednesday due to the lake effect. Models are terrible at picking up convection and even they are showing non stop showers.

Mild sector alert ⚠ for the north east, only -12 hpa haha

[Dahonis]

1 hour ago, geordiekev said:

Location Dipton near Consett, estimated snow depth ??? I'm just hoping this is enough for my short commute up my 20m driveway to the main road. 160kg for a bargain price of 30 quid delivered from Travis Perkins. I'll look a right divvy if all I get is couple of cm ?

Dipton, jeez. You would be able to sell that at a profit come next week, Consett does well for snow in summer ??

[geordiekev]

50 minutes ago, Dahonis said:

Dipton, jeez. You would be able to sell that at a profit come next week, Consett does well for snow in summer ??

If not, it's a good weed killer so I'll be chucking thousands of dandelion seeds around the village ?

[NickR]

18z... 80cm for us. :O

[NickR]

Bit less great for us on 00z. Not as much snow. First time the accumulation has been c. 50 rather than c. 80 for a while.

[NickR]

Look at the ECM total snow accumulation for us! Add in extra for convection too!

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022400/england/snow-depth-in/20180306-0000z.html

 

[Boro Snow]

11 minutes ago, NickR said:

Look at the ECM total snow accumulation for us! Add in extra for convection too!

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022400/england/snow-depth-in/20180306-0000z.html

 

And the MOGREPS from the met office backs the ECM by not bringing that low so far north and mixing out the colder uppers, the cold pushes it away, which is a good thing and prolonging the cold into the 2nd week, I am worried about my rabbits in the back garden though 

[NickR]

3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

And the MOGREPS from the met office backs the ECM by not bringing that low so far north and mixing out the colder uppers, the cold pushes it away, which is a good thing and prolonging the cold into the 2nd week, I am worried about my rabbits in the back garden though 

Same here! We've only got one - put off getting a companion.... he's under a lean-to, but even so. Wondering if we should turn the downstairs bathroom into his temporary home.

[Boro Snow]

We have 2 we bought them in the summer of 2013 so not been in really prolonged cold, was thinking the garage and buying some heat mats 

[NickR]

2 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

We have 2 we bought them in the summer of 2013 so not been in really prolonged cold, was thinking the garage and buying some heat mats 

Good idea. I cleared out the outhouse about 6 months ago in part in case it could be used for the rabbit(s)... in 6 months it's somehow turned into something akin to a very, very full bombsite.

[rdt123]

Any guesses on snow depths for teesside? Comparing forecasters and rampers I’ve heard anything from a dusting to a foot!

[Snowmaggedon]

Met Office regional forecast for Monday to Wednesday is amazing:

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Extremely cold with snow showers, these becoming frequent and sometimes heavy through Monday, with no change Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to locally significant accumulations. Becoming windy from Tuesday.

[Snowmaggedon]

36 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Also, interesting update from Roger J Smith in the MOD thread over night...

Gradual increase in North Sea streamer production through Monday with an episode of heavy snow moving into northeast England late Monday and spreading to central counties by Tuesday, widespread near-blizzard conditions in Midlands, Yorkshire and northeast to Wednesday, more isolated streamers in southeast but some locally heavy.

Let's hope ECM and RJS are correct!

 

[Stozzy]

14 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

Any guesses on snow depths for teesside? Comparing forecasters and rampers I’ve heard anything from a dusting to a foot!

I think we all should get more than a dusting . Hopefully lol