SSW Related Cold Spell - It's here

[Deep Snow please]

15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Think the uppers progged on tonight EC are lower- if EC comes off it will be an easterly to be remembered for quite a long time imho.

On a similar note does anyone remember what the coldest uppers over the UK have been?

The back end of these some runs leaves us in an easterly flow with purple range -20s waiting in the wings? That's colder than 2010 and many other winters right? It looks so tantalisingly close to actually coming over the country and turning us purple. The easterly flow is still there to bring it and as well, could you imagine days without getting above freezing, I can barely remember it - it's been that long. It'll be a shame if this doesn't materialise.

[Badgers01]

2 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

On a similar note does anyone remember what the coldest uppers over the UK have been?

The back end of these some runs leaves us in an easterly flow with purple range -20s waiting in the wings? That's colder than 2010 and many other winters right? It looks so tantalisingly close to actually coming over the country and turning us purple. The easterly flow is still there to bring it and as well, could you imagine days without getting above freezing, I can barely remember it - it's been that long. It'll be a shame if this doesn't materialise.

If I recall correctly they briefly touched -17c for a short while in the Jan 87 event which I believe was the coldest day time maxima  in southern England for 250 years

[Deep Snow please]

This post doesn't seem quite right for the main thread but giving we aren't talking complete la la la land anymore deserves some consideration. Will the councils and government actually be prepared for this, or will it as usually be somehow a complete surprise to them. We're looking at roads freezing over and heavy snow in places. Anyone on here know what government procedure for a cold snap/spell of this magnitude would be?

With cold air arriving on the 25th and still around by the 7th March on the latest GFS, this isn't a minor consideration.

 

[Deep Snow please]

Been practising my daily express style writing skills...

Winter is Coming - The Ultimate Preppers Guide

Severe wintry weather is forecast for much of the UK in the next few weeks for the first time in many years. Take a look around your house and ask yourself one question? Am I suitably prepared for the nuclear apocalypse, if the answer is no then you are not suitably prepared for what could potentially become a snowmaggedon situation. Imagine being cut-off from your corner shop even in the city centre, imagine being cut off from your family because even the mobile phone transmitter has frozen over? No-one to help you. This is a very real threat. This guide aims to help you ensure you are 100% ready for the late winter.

Firstly here's what do before the wintry weather arrives.

1. Stock up on food and drink - What's in your cupboards right now? Enough food to last a couple of days maybe. That simply won't do. You need enough bread for the next three weeks and enough milks for the next four weeks. I wouldn't worry about fridge and freezer space, you can keep it in the snowfield that will be your back garden or your garage. You'll need enough tins of food to last, as well as instant pasta you can boil with the kettle on an old camping stove if you're water and electric goes off - a very real possibility with temperatures forecast to get as low as -5 to -10.
2. Buy loads of blankets - Again with the risk of your gas heating freezing over or electric heating losing power from frozen cables it's absolutely imperative you ensure that there is at least four duvets for every member of your household and a myriad of blankets to keep them warm - we recommend about half a dozen. The best plan is to wrap yourself gradually in a sandwich fashion in each one, creating a massive layer. The main issue with this is when you unwrap you'll be a bit cold, so a Russian doll style onesy collection will allow you to go to the toilet if you need to whilst not freezing to death.
3. Do you have a large bucket for over your toilet? - With no central heating and electricity due to the absolutely freezing temperatures it's absolutely important you've something to place over the toilet such as a large bucket or a slab of wood to keep the scavenging flies away from your house and more importantly prevent the ice blocks that are now the water in your toilet basin from freezing too solid, pushing the faeces on top of them out.
4. Buy yourself a lot of de-icer - De-icer is often used for scraping ice off car windows, but with the kind of weather being widely predicted for the end of this month we feel you'll be needed de-icer simply to have a peak out of your window. You'll also be needing it to unfreeze the side of your door, although a leaf blower or hairdryer should work for this purposes, maybe even a saw. 
5. Board Games for the little ones - If you've got little one you may be thinking they'll be fine playing in the snow for hours on end. Whilst this would normally be ideal in the kind of weather we are expecting it isn't. The novelty will where off when the frosty snowman collapses on their heads and they need taking to hospital. Not to mention the hypothermia risk. Don't expect ambulances to be coming for them either as they'll probably still be digging the depots out in mid-July. Oh and due to the aforementioned electric issues there isn't a chance in hell of them playing on their xboxes, so you might actually see them for more than dinner for a change!
6. Check your tools - Saw, Shovel, Axe - You'll be needing a shovel in this weather to ensure that you can dig your way out of your house when it's buried under huge drifts of snow and you need to get to the corner shop for some milk. I wouldn't bother with gritting anywhere as it'll just get re-covered in the never-ending blizzard. You'll be needing a saw for build an igloo once you're roof has collapsed from the weight of snow and ice and you've not a chance in hell of getting a repair man round, I recommend getting familiar with how to build one now, before your internet gets cut off by the snow. And the Axe is for when it turns to ice, a shovel won't have enough bite to dig your tunnels if you need to go somewhere you didn't while it was still snow.

Make sure you follow our posts to ensure that you don't get caught out and you know what to do in the most awful, horrendous weather since the great frost of 1663-84.

[danm]

Press Release from Met Office re upcoming cold spell:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/conditions-turning-colder-later-in-the-week

Conditions turning col

Conditions turning colder later in the week

19th February 2018

After a mild start to the week, conditions will get colder later in the week with wind chill playing a key part in the south.

The UK will start the week in a small sector of mild air with temperatures as high as 14°C in some parts of the west. These milder conditions will be short lived though as high pressure begins to dominate by the middle of the week, eventually allowing an easterly flow to bring in cold air from Eastern Europe over the weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Andy Page, said: “High pressure will become established across the UK by the middle of this week bringing settled weather for most, but also some frosty nights. However, as the high drifts east to be over Scandinavia by the weekend, it will allow colder air from Eastern Europe to be drawn towards us. The cold easterly wind will bring an element of wind chill which will make it feel colder in the south.”

There are signs that this cold spell is likely to last well into next week with possibly even colder air from Russia moving across the UK. Although there is a very low risk of snow this week because of the dry nature of the air, this could change the other side of the weekend.

Dr Thomas Waite, of Public Health England’s Extreme Events team, said: “With the days feeling a little longer and lighter it can be easy to forget that cold weather can still kill.

“Over 65s, those with conditions like heart and lung diseases and young children, are all at particular risk in cold weather as their bodies struggle to cope when temperatures fall. So before it gets cold check on friends, family and neighbours, who may be at risk and make sure they’re heating homes to at least 18C, see if they need any particular help or just someone to talk to and keep an eye on the Met Office’s forecasts and warnings. Remember keeping warm will help keep you well.”

The incursion of these cold conditions is linked to a meteorological event that has happened high up in the Stratosphere over the North Pole. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event occurred last week which after a lag period can have implications to our weather in Northern Europe.

Prof Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, explained: “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January and last week we saw a dramatic rise in air temperature of around 50°C, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, at around 30km above the North Pole. This warming results from a breakdown of the usual high-altitude westerly winds and it often leads to a switch in our weather: with cold easterly conditions more likely to dominate subsequent UK weather.”

These events are well reproduced and can be predicted in our computer models. There are signs that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK that could last into March.

[danm]

 

They're being very cautious with their language. The "very cold air staying away until after weekend". 

Edited February 19, 2018 by danm

[username home]

21 minutes ago, danm said:

 

They're being very cautious with their language. The "very cold air staying away until after weekend". 

interesting that +3 / 4C is not being viewed as particularly cold..... which of course it isn't but then to use the term 'very cold' staying away means that it could be something special....

Edited February 19, 2018 by username home

[trickydicky]

You know how its said that it can't be cold here and on the Eastern USA at the same time, and that cold snaps over here often coincide with unusual warmth over there. Well, according to the BBC weather app its forecast to be 28c in Washington DC on Wednesday, 23 in New York, 21 in Boston and 15 as far north as Montreal. That has to be pretty noteworthy abnormal warmth for the time of year surely?

[summer blizzard]

Now that we appear to have nailed down the cold spell it's time to think of snow. 

Firstly the proper cold arrives Sunday/Monday but in terms of snow pressure is on the high side so we are reliant on uppers to generate convection. 

In terms of snow prospects tonights Euro suggests that Monday-Wednesday will see the greatest snow prospects and tuesday-wednesday especially look spectacular for anybody east of the Pennines, East Midlands and South East. I dare say that if the output for Tuesday-Wednesday on the Euro remained the same then the totals for the likes of Surrey and South Yorkshire could be spectacular if we get a streamer. 

[hillbilly]

february
�	C	F	�
21	-18.3	-1	Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1968
22	-22.2	-8	Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1955
23	-25.0	-13	Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1955
24	-20.6	-5	Dalwhinnie (Highland) 1955
25	-20.6	-5	Woburn (Beds) 1947
26	-18.3	-1	Glenshee Lodge (Perth and Kinross) and Kielder (Northumberland) 1963
27	-21.2	-6.2	Grantown-on-Spey (Highland) 1986
28	-19.3	-2.7	Keith (Morayshire) 1986
29	-12.8	9	Mayfield (Staffs), Walsall (W Mids), Newport (Shropshire), Belper (Notts) 1936
1	-20.0	-4.0	Lagganlia (Highland) 1986                                                                                         March
2	-20.0	-4	Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1965
3	-21.7	-7	Corwen (Denbigh) 1965; Kinbrace (Highland) 2001
4	-21.1	-6	Houghall (Durham), Peebles (Borders), Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1947
5	-17.8	0	Braemar (Aberdeenshire)1947
6	-20.0	-4	Braemar (Aberdeenshire)1947
7	-18.9	-2	Alston (Cumbria) 1886
8	-21.1	-6	Braemar (Aberdeenshire)1947
9	-19.4	-3	Braemar (Aberdeenshire)1917
10	-15.0	5	Rickmansworth (Herts) 1931
11	-19.4	-3	Logie Coldstone (Aberdeenshire) 1958
12	-22.2	-8	Grantown-on-Spey (Highland) 1958
13	-13.9	7	Logie Coldstone (Aberdeenshire)1958
14	-22.8	-9	Logie Coldstone (Aberdeenshire) 1958
15	-16.7	2	Braemar (Aberdeenshire) 1947                                                                           A list of record temperatures we are all looking forward to be rewritten in the weeks to come !

[Sib2018]

Could this really be a big event? Met office seem to be playing it down. Hopefully it will be back to normal by the 9th of next month I am due to fly from Manchester to Amsterdam. Hope we do see a bit of snow.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Much colder
Possibly Siberian air
Chance of snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43122036

[chris78]

10 minutes ago, Sib2018 said:

Could this really be a big event? Met office seem to be playing it down. Hopefully it will be back to normal by the 9th of next month I am due to fly from Manchester to Amsterdam. Hope we do see a bit of snow.

It definitely could, it could be the biggest winter event since 2010, but will it?    Id say its as nailed on as any event can be 6 days away, but a key part of that statement is the 6 days away bit.

[Summer Sun]

 

[tornado tams]

The model discussion has gone nuts and most are in agreement (almost unheard of!), I'm off to do a bit of a stock up for next week onwards as a real chance we could be snowed in or our village cut off (no shop). I'm not worried it will be very exciting, log burner at ready. it will probably come to nothing as per usual .

[Summer Sun]

 

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

yes seriously it has happened plenty of times before.

Bring this discussion over here, because we're well off topic for the mod-thread. There has indeed been many deep snow events in February and March throughout the years, I think some people have become a tad too accustomed to mild springs and winters.

2013 was the most recent example with many places cut off by the blizzard.

[Jo Farrow]

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8749-cold-spell---bitter-chill-with-frost-prolonged-cold-and-possible-snow-end-febmarch 

[Summer Sun]

 

[BleakMidwinter]

On 16/02/2018 at 17:43, Decemberof2010 said:

I would love it to be like my username. The depth of cold here was something else. Minus 6 at lunchtime and minus 15 at night. I have a pic somewhere of -13 in my car at 7am!!! A couple of significant snowfalls as well. If this comes anywhere close I'll be very happy

In Edinburgh, it started snowing heavily in late November 2010, and it then snowed basically every single day until February. Six weeks of falling snow. A lot of sub-zero temps. My first winter there in 1979-80, as a primary-school child, we took the temperature outside at noon every day for a school project and it stayed below freezing for a full fortnight. The snow was so deep and so long in 79-80 that as I walked to school I saw people skiing to work, in suburban Edinburgh. Pinstripe suit, briefcase strapped to back, woolly hat and scarf... 

The 2010-11 winter was good, but Edinburgh was prepared for the cold (in fact, our Victorian house had the lowest heating bill in years because it kept a 20 inch thick layer of snow on the roof...) but it worries me that this cold is going to hit a lot of people who are not prepared or who think they know what it will be like because they've previously experienced -10 over one night, or three ice-days in a row. 

I know the cold isn't set in stone yet, but it does worry me that *nobody* I've mentioned it to has heard anything about it. they have ALL been cheerfully talking about spring being nearly here. 

[Norrance]

23 hours ago, trickydicky said:

You know how its said that it can't be cold here and on the Eastern USA at the same time, and that cold snaps over here often coincide with unusual warmth over there. Well, according to the BBC weather app its forecast to be 28c in Washington DC on Wednesday, 23 in New York, 21 in Boston and 15 as far north as Montreal. That has to be pretty noteworthy abnormal warmth for the time of year surely?

That is often quoted but not always true. Both 1947 and 1979 were very cold in the Eastern USA. I believe at least January 1963 was severe too.  I think that our cold depends on many factors but is not always scuppered by a cold Eastern seaboard in the US.

[BleakMidwinter]

On 19/02/2018 at 11:04, Deep Snow please said:

This post doesn't seem quite right for the main thread but giving we aren't talking complete la la la land anymore deserves some consideration. Will the councils and government actually be prepared for this, or will it as usually be somehow a complete surprise to them. We're looking at roads freezing over and heavy snow in places. Anyone on here know what government procedure for a cold snap/spell of this magnitude would be?

 

I can't say for everywhere, but a friend works in road management in Dublin, having worked for many many years in Perthshire and in SW England, and she is permanently aware of the forecast weather so she can organise her gritters to best effect. 

I don't know about more widely. The shift in how we live in the last 10-15 years means that most schools now close if insufficient staff are there, and of course staff no longer live within hiking distance as they did when we were all kids. So that means a lot of schools could be closed for a week or two weeks if it does seriously snow - which in turn means a lot of people having to work out urgent childcare at short notice. I would be prepared for your colleagues to be absent from work suddenly, leaving them overworked with no holiday left in the long-term, and leaving you overworked with their workload in the short-term... Hospitals are likely to struggle too, with staff unable to get in. I know in Dec 2017 when we had 14 inches of snow in 3 days in Telford which normally gets 1 inch the local hospitals appealed successfully to local 4x4 owners to provide transport for staff into hospitals. 

[Summer Sun]

No mention what so ever of snow next week from the beeb at 13:30

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No mention what so ever of snow next week from the beeb at 13:30

have you told the people who post in the MOD thread? Maybe not a good idea

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The BBC hate cold weather ?