SSW Related Cold Spell - It's here

[Tracy Flick]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No mention what so ever of snow next week from the beeb at 13:30

If by 'Next week' she means 'day 0 to day 7' it's probably just about a reasonable assessment.

(I didn't hear or watch it though.)

[BleakMidwinter]

12 minutes ago, meh said:

If by 'Next week' she means 'day 0 to day 7' it's probably just about a reasonable assessment.

(I didn't hear or watch it though.)

Agreed - everything I've seen has basically said the end of this week is likely to be increasingly cold but dry, and it's the following week that is the uncertain one re snow. 

[Weather26]

Although at the moment even that appears to be going belly up.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Deep Snow please]

4 hours ago, meh said:

If by 'Next week' she means 'day 0 to day 7' it's probably just about a reasonable assessment.

(I didn't hear or watch it though.)

That would be this week. 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Cold snap
Uncertain severity
Frosts regardless
Chance of snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43135818

[DOdo]

My Guess is that they still dont know yet hold cold it wiil get

 

[Deep Snow please]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Cold snap
Uncertain severity
Frosts regardless
Chance of snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43135818

Good to see some much more rational forecasts coming out of the BBC. No doubt the meteorologists who make up there weather teams sent some jaffa cakesy emails to the higher ups.

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 cold weather alert issued

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:51 on Wed 21 Feb 2018

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 23 Feb and 1200 on Monday 26 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

As the weekend approaches, average temperatures are likely to fall bringing a likelihood of meeting low temperature criteria across all regions. This with mainly fine and dry weather initially until Sunday, where snow showers will become more likely. The cold continental east or southeasterly wind will also become a factor, strengthening enough to give significant wind chill. The alert is likely to be reviewed on Friday, and perhaps upgraded and extended further into the new week as the cold weather looks likely to continue.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Edited February 21, 2018 by Summer Sun

[snefnug]

Ooh, not the rest of the country then?

[Cwmbran Eira]

4 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Ooh, not the rest of the country then?

It an England only system

A Cold weather health watch system operates in England from the 1 November to 31 March every year, in association with Public Health England.

[snefnug]

Oh ok, thanks for that.  Obvs we are of sturdier stock......

[Cwmbran Eira]

13 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Oh ok, thanks for that.  Obvs we are of sturdier stock......

Probably more to do with money. We spent all ours giving away paracetamol on prescription. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[snefnug]

Latest Beeb  forecast possible direction might move through France?

Edited February 21, 2018 by snefnug

[Paul]

Latest from Jo:

 

[wiltshire weather]

Lots of unpleasantness going on in the model thread about the positioning of the high-pressure cell on the UKMO model, which seems to have moved it very quickly over from Scandi towards Iceland (on its way to Greenland maybe?)

With the HP being centred just SW of Iceland on the 27th, the weather type across the country fits in quite well with the current synopsis in their extended outlook posted below:

"UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill."

Will be interesting to see what their updated 120hr FAX looks like once it comes out.

Edited February 21, 2018 by wiltshire weather

[wiltshire weather]

Interestingly (to me anyway!) the ECM 00hr run earlier seems to have a very similar evolution to the UKMO 12z run and does indeed end up with a Greenland high.

It then drags in very cold and unstable air from the NE so a definite reload after a very cold week with snow chances in the areas already highlighted by the Meto.

As I'm typing I notice the 72hr FAX has just updated and the flow out to the East seems to be depicted as more unstable than it was earlier.

 

[danm]

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Cold and frosty
Chance of snow - But where?
Northerly winds later next week?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43149430

[northwestsnow]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week

Cold and frosty
Chance of snow - But where?
Northerly winds later next week?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43149430

Interesting forecast- i'd like to see more emphasis on snow over the next 48 hours, but for sure its too far out to know how much and where.

Thanks for posting Gav

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Some extremely low temps on Monday below are the likely daytime temps

[danm]

 

[Dogcatcher]

All I need to know is, will it be worse than 1947?