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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Looks like lower heights over Central Europe. Should develop the initial easterly flow more quickly on this run.

High pressure also ridging further north of the UK.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T120 ukmo is all good. Start of an easterly flow.

IMG_0580.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

Icon 00z t157 had the jet more aligned sw barrelling the jet, and the colder uppers,over us. 12z takes it south more and under the uk. 

0E2C887F-071B-41AA-B927-16F29B0D2B9D.jpeg

EACE36D9-4B1C-4D2F-A784-55E56BD06E8B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ECM1-168.GIF?17-12 icon-0-156.png?17-12

Even though the ICON 12z now has a bit of that upper air warming related to a flow off the Alps for Saturday, the profile either side remains a lot better than the 00z ECM.

Yes, quite a big difference in the strength of the vortex lobe over Greenland; ECM has a 950mb super low, whereas ICON has a flabby and sloppy looking 990mb area!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Dry, continental flow for England & Wales on the UKMO 12z at T120;

5a8852eeb7f84_UN120-21(2).thumb.gif.573cc78c3b96814fab6f3d7df2630b7a.gif

Pressure relatively high over the UK.

Similar at T144;

5a885387e5ef2_UN144-21(1).thumb.gif.983357bc7817ef49c55df5873dc4cbab.gif

Flurries edging closer to Margate pier.

All in all though, the above keeps me interested going into week 2.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UW96-21.GIF?17-16 icon-0-96.png?17-12

UW120-21.GIF?17-17 icon-0-120.png?17-12

12z UKMO edges ahead of the ICON 12z for the amount of easterly flow achieved days 4-5. Nice to have that one on board.

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Hello all a Newby here with a similar name from a yesterday forum             

One or two members I know from that forum, Daniel for one

May I say I watch the models every day a boy haven't they been cruel for coldies this winter and still beyond 5 days they continue to tease, I'm a strong believer that when the Nao starts to dive in the next couple of days and remains negative for a while we might at last see the SWW reversal and our weather coming in from a easterly point 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

So UKMO and ICON good if not perfect.

I think GFS maybe about to make up for any lack of excitement.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile GFS appears ready to bring the cold notably sooner as the ridge position is better and the small low moving through Scandinavia a lot less interfering.

Most fun I've had tracking mid-term changes in quite some time.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

ICON is "cake tomorrow" from start to finish. I think it would make it after 180 but it's a long wait.

 

GFS looks better to 96 hrs. High pressure further north. Better chance of earlier cold incursion.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UW144-21.GIF?17-17 icon-0-144.png?17-12

That actually looks pretty good from the UKMO 12z for day 6 - the upper flow is more toward E than ICON has. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

UKMO 144. Uppers not looking very cold but potential down the line....

UW144-21.GIF?17-17UW144-7.GIF?17-17

Very similar to the GFS 6z this morning at 144. With that trough to the east moving west...

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

UW144-21.GIF?17-17 icon-0-144.png?17-12

That actually looks pretty good from the UKMO 12z for day 6 - the upper flow is more toward E than ICON has. 

Don't underestimate how unusual it is to have cross model consensus for a situation of this calibre this far out. Reasons only to be cheerful. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

It still amazes me that so many seemingly clever people don’t realise that not every run is going to be identical to the last and that each run will likely be within a broad envelope of options.

The trend is our friend and that it is to bring in an initial easterly followed by an even colder flow a few days later.  The models are just working out how to arrange the pieces of the jigsaw.

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