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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Lets quickly remind ourselves!

The ens-not to recently' were the lead in terms of cold notability-while the op-was missing and waining.

Now we have mirror opposite, with op-leading evolutions for cold.

Its cat and mouse in such situ and is to be expected given the diabolics of decipher...

Its a circular motion in compare...and both should now start aligning as one cross suite....absolutley no panic alarms at all!!!..

On we move.

The cold is coming!!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lets quickly remind ourselves!

The ens-not to recently' were the lead in terms of cold notability-while the op-was missing and waining.

The cold is coming!!!!

MT8_London_ens (2).png

We know that , we’ve had a massive SSW. The question remains - whether it gets here ??????

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We know that , we’ve had a massive SSW. The question remains - whether it gets here ??????

My basing-point being that...i think a more definitive-route will apply now...

Via raws...and indeed supports!.

Ie-without miss direction against one-and other...

Edited by tight isobar

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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM ens 

C2C94867-5B7E-47E7-872F-1F6AADE5DC17.thumb.gif.743c9a57fa1a692494167d343b5da208.gif

Pretty good agreement for a colder spell from around the 21st and then spread becomes more evident from the 25th ish! Not a bad set in the mid term it has to be said!

The ECM mean is actually slightly less cold than last nights 12z

Yesterday 12z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

Today 00z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

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Anyway lets see if we can now begin to gain via 12z sets and have a clearer picture going forwards...#operationals #ensembles

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean is actually slightly less cold than last nights 12z

Yesterday 12z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

Today 00z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

Yes and I didn’t expect any different to be honest. Last nights ECM was quite something to behold! 

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That is one mean average at 240z

gensnh-21-1-240.png

And at 180z I am going to reject any negative commentary when we have the fat finger of heights showing on virtually all GEFS .If we cannot achieve some undercut from the East from this then I am writing a complaint to somebody :D.....anybody

gens_panelgze3_mini.png

 

Edited by winterof79

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20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean is actually slightly less cold than last nights 12z

Yesterday 12z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

Today 00z

Diagramme ECMWF/CEP

I mentioned this earlier - it could just be a one suite blip.  If this evening’s ECM suite is similar then that is a concern for coldies.  We really need the cold to start appearing within the 6 day timeline.  Day 10 eye candy charts are great to look at but we all know they are unlikely to verify as is.

Edited by mulzy

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I think it's worth posting the GEFS mean at T240.  Obviously that's 10 days time but the point is that following the SSW this is a very plausible evolution.  

gens-21-1-240.png?6

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Jet mean today along with other MEANS

gensnh-21-3-6.png

End of run

gensnh-21-3-384.png

 Sister PV today

gensnh-21-1-0.png

Warming today

gensnh-21-7-6.png

PV end of run

gensnh-21-1-384.png

Surely to God we can get a result as there is no Jet or Atlantic push........I'm in

 

Edited by winterof79

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Good to see Icon still on board...

 

icon-0-120.png?17-06

 

Everything is ok now...

 

6a0120a7aae27b970b017eeb449c28970d-800wi

Quickly becoming one of my favourite models - Despite a small wobble yesterday it’s been absolutely solid on calling this Eastery while every other model has flip flopped around driving us all crazy. 

Great charts this morning, ECM was never going to match last nights output but the 6z GFS beat it. Still, the 6z evoluion wise is messy, ICON/GEM is the preferred straight forward option. 

UKMO not all the way there but a big improvement from yesterday which is what we wanted to see. 

All in all, happy with todays progress, lets hope that continues into the 12z suites across the board. 

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whilst the uncertainty exists going forward, it should be acknowledged that unless the modelling is upgraded in the meantime, the eps and not the gefs are the main tool to use post any ssw in the future. The AO/NAO predictions from the eps have been far more reliable than the gefs. There has been the odd rum suite but in general it didn’t want to markedly drop the indices until 22 Feb onwards. The gefs were around 5 days earlier. The reality looks to be approx  24th. 

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18 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Good to see Icon still on board...

 

icon-0-120.png?17-06

 

Everything is ok now...

 

6a0120a7aae27b970b017eeb449c28970d-800wi

Yes the ICON has uppers of -10c in the SE corner as early as Thursday morning.

9z just rolling out now so will see if it keeps the same theme.

iconeu_uk1-16-120-0.png?17-10

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The GEFS 6z mean is a lot colder than yesterday's and when you look through the individual perturbations you can see why because there are plenty of stonking wintry charts which is great to see!:D:cold:

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11 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes the ICON has uppers of -10c in the SE corner as early as Thursday morning.

9z just rolling out now so will see if it keeps the same theme.

iconeu_uk1-16-120-0.png?17-10

I agree. The ICON is one of my favourite new models to be honest. With it been a high res model and only run at short range, its good to see how consistent its been and makes me feel optimistic of a fairly decent outcome

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I'd like to discuss the effect of this on the NE, but the far north regional thread appears to have been deleted.

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2 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

I agree. The ICON is one of my favourite new models to be honest. With it been a high res model and only run at short range, its good to see how consistent its been and makes me feel optimistic of a fairly decent outcome

The ICON is the old GME model. I believe its not especially reliable when compared to the ECM etc and I don't believe it's particularly hi res. 

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24 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes the ICON has uppers of -10c in the SE corner as early as Thursday morning.

9z just rolling out now so will see if it keeps the same theme.

iconeu_uk1-16-120-0.png?17-10

9z is only high res and goes to 30 hrs

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ICON is the old GME model. I believe its not especially reliable when compared to the ECM etc and I don't believe it's particularly hi res. 

It runs at a higher resolution than the GFS Crew.

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ICON is the old GME model. I believe its not especially reliable when compared to the ECM etc and I don't believe it's particularly hi res. 

It’s 13 km (same as gfs op) but at more vertical levels 

i suspect it verifies just below the gem but it may have strengths in the current scenario we had no idea of! you can often get a handle on where the ecm is going days 4/5 by looking at this model for those timeframes. It must have weaknesses otherwise it would be verifying with the ecm at day 5!

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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

would love to see how this evolved from here-

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.074c8e8ae50dd106f5acb70f535f6cfc.png

i've never seen a wnter chart like that before and its in spring!

(must be global warming :whistling:)

80.png

Ah yes, with this easterly climate change is no longer happening and the world is no longer warming.... :rofl:

For what its worth given the Meto confidence I think the pendulum has swung towards a blocked solution. Whether we will tap into the really cold air is still up for question but I think its more likely then not now.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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18 minutes ago, NickR said:

I'd like to discuss the effect of this on the NE, but the far north regional thread appears to have been deleted.

It hasn't been far north for years, it's North and North East England. That said it still appears to have been deleted.

 

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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 

@Steve Murr - you weren’t very vocal re the 00z suites. Are you stepping back awaiting the noon output ??

Maybe his battery finally ran out. Or he passed out after seeing the 06z. 

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