Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Polar Maritime]

Well.. Who wants - 19c uppers incoming! Last time I saw this was 2009. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[kold weather]

Well it was only a matter of time before the GFS produce a proper beast. The 00z ECM ensembles far less confirdent on deep than a few runs ago, with some never getting the high north enough meaning we drag in a SE/S flow instead, which could feel quite spring like and warm. Equally a decent number still go sub -14C in a monster easterly. 

Just a slight trend as well for a LP to try and push up from the south/SW as well.

[winterof79]

#Sleety ref lake effect snow off North Sea

 

2013

= Mega snow

 

 

 

2018 

= ???

 

2013

Edited February 17, 2018 by winterof79

[bobbydog]

for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

unless you were one of the people living in aberystwyth or st ives  rip

[Polar Maritime]

Well into the run for detail but who wants a channel low.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

for those in the west who say easterlies dont deliver for them-

everyone is happy on that chart, even knocker!

Yes, this would be the perfect easterly. Nobody would miss out on the fun. 

[kold weather]

This 06z run is truely mad, as Chino said, any run is a downgrade from this! Monster easterly followed by a LP forming in the flow, basically ensuring snowfalls 1ft+ IF that ran came off as it shows...We actually develop our OWN shortwave in the cold polar flow, so rare to see that, yet alone basically in March!

Even a very downgraded version of that would be one of the best cold spells since Dec 10.l

Edited February 17, 2018 by kold weather

[bradymk]

Probably coldest 850's ive seen on an op run since looking at the models in 2012. 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think what you are seeing modelled is the perfect block. No other output will be as good as this! I'm reminded off the great late Ian McCaskill's famous forecast - Incredible run!

Yes, I didn't think it were possible but I think this eclipses even last nights ECM

Clean transition from Easterly to Greenland high Northerly/Northeasterly.

Very hard to manage expectation with output like this. 

[Scandinavian High.]

UK looking very cold South East England looking Extreme cold weather..

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think what you are seeing modelled is the perfect block. No other output will be as good as this! I'm reminded off the great late Ian McCaskill's famous forecast - Incredible run!

we said that about yesterday’s 12z ecm !

these stellar ops will appear, interspersed with less stellar ones and we will remain none the wiser re the detail of what lies ahead in week 2. 

@Steve Murr - you weren’t very vocal re the 00z suites. Are you stepping back awaiting the noon output ??

[MattStoke]

Nice run. Based on recent runs from the main models, I would go with the real cold to arrive sometime next weekend but a downward trend in temperatures in an easterly flow from mid next week.

Edited February 17, 2018 by MattStoke

[bobbydog]

worth saving these charts for posterity.

the GFS is showing a historical weather event

(or hysterical, depending how you look at it!)

[The Eagle]

Anyone who needs expectation management only has to look at the ECM. Not the best. UKMO, though better, is not that much better.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

we said that about yesterday’s 12z ecm !

these stellar ops will appear, interspersed with less stellar ones and we will remain none the wiser re the detail of what lies ahead in week 2. 

@Steve Murr - you weren’t very vocal re the 00z suites. Are you stepping back awaiting the noon output ??

im stepping back into bed ( on a stag weekend ) - Im in bits lol

IKON 06z looked good all the way t120 as well

UKMO better today but ECM to far south

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Feeling warm in the sun at that time of year

 

[SLEETY]

 Nevermind uk for a minute, what about Eastern Europe  it would  be dangerously cold I would imagine if this run verify ,anyone checked out the 850 hpa for places like Finland and Russia yet,it’s insanely cold on the 00 run this run even colder 

[Snowmadsam]

It finally seems like we are getting a form of stability now with something special being seen across models. 

I am still expecting the tail end of Feb to be the most likely time for the evolutions that the 6z and last nights ECM 12z to actually come off....

[cobbett]

Need to order the snow chains

[Mike Poole]

This GFS 6z run just oozes epicicity!  Here's the T288 chart

And the uppers - wow!

First day of Spring, anyone?

Edited February 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Bank! 

Someone put in an IceA! (Ill get my coat) 

[winterof79]

Go then hit the link

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=2

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by winterof79

[DIS1970]

I think we should all try to hold fire & relax a little about this "oncoming winter & snow event", otherwise there could be some long queue's for the chemist!

Edited February 17, 2018 by DIS1970

[snowice]

One thing is for sure great model watching this evening! Let's hope the good mood keeps, and let's not throw the toys out of the pram from run to run. It's  bound to upgrade downgrade at times