Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[london-snow]

Icon starting to roll out let’s hope it’s a great start to the morning ?

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

BBC forecast showing an easterly as the more favoured option 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43092990

That forecast contains more caveats than an EU trade agreement.

ICON still coming out but looks pretty safe so far.

[frosty ground]

The icon is probably going to get there but a slower evolution 

[Mucka]

Icon says yes, GEM says yes.

Both have us in an Easterly flow by next Tuesday

EDIT

And most importantly UKMO coming on board!

Still a little way to go to get to Icon and GEM standards but a big improvement over previous otuput

Edited February 17, 2018 by Mucka

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, Raythan said:

How come you got the graveyard shift @Mucka, you’re dedicated  keep up the sterling work 

One of the few benefits of suffering insomnia. 

Here is a run down of the models at 144

Icon, GEM, GFS, UKMO

 

So some variation but all four models this morning showing an Easterly, high fives! 

Icon and GEM the best, UKMO not far behind then GFS but no complaints. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM is insanity in a weather model this morning

That would be some serious snowfall for eastern areas.

[Mucka]

Let the eye candy commence..

Icon

GEM

[london-snow]

Let’s see if the gfs can edge back even further after it started crawling and cowering last nights op, If it does and ecm stays firm then imo it’s game set and match..

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Let’s see if the gfs can edge back even further after it started crawling and cowering last nights op, If it does and ecm stays firm then imo it’s game set and match..

It's blocked from here...the pattern is in retrograde

but it's dragging its heels....

[london-snow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's blocked from here...the pattern is in retrograde

but it's dragging its heels....

Yup it’s at D7 whereas the majority of other ops has us in some sort of easterly by D5, Not a bad chart mind but the quicker the better imo.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Yup it’s at D7 whereas the majority of other ops has us in some sort of easterly by D5, Not a bad chart mind but the quicker the better imo.

The amount of cold leaching into that E European LP is eye watering. All backing west...

[Rayth]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

the pattern is in retrograde

Could be heading for the mother of all fantasy lands here ...

[cold snap]

GFS puts UK and Ireland in the freezer in about  20 months time 

[london-snow]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The amount of cold leaching into that E European LP is eye watering. All backing west...

 

All roads lead to cold it seems all be it with variations and in some op’s a slight delay.

Would like to get the pattern in sooner rather than later though and that currently is the form horse say D5.

[Rayth]

This is the definition of a COBRA meeting 

[fujita5]

15 minutes ago, Raythan said:

This is the definition of a COBRA meeting 

And there's even colder air over Asia. If we get a long track easterly that lasts a week or more..... ?

[snowbob]

Great start to the day with the 0z

Just need the ecm to play ball this morning

maybe the first time we actually get all models in agreement for a very long while

Edited February 17, 2018 by snowbob

[Mr snowman 2018]

20 minutes ago, london-snow said:

28th February my date to return to work after a week off...

Wheres those annual leave forms to extend ?

 

20 minutes ago, london-snow said:

28th February my date to return to work after a week off...

Wheres those annual leave forms to extend ?

The gfs chart is a beauty if you like cold this morning however I am still cautious as it's the UK and things go wrong a lot of the time this is the best chance the UK has had in years if it doesn't happen now I'm afraid winters may be over in the UK

[Mr snowman 2018]

Even by the 1st of march we are still in the freezer

[Banbury]

An absolutely incredible run from GFS I think it might be on the cold side of the ENS , don’t you ?  

 

God knows how much snow we’d get from that 

[Mr snowman 2018]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

An absolutely incredible run from GFS I think it might be on the cold side of the ENS , don’t you ?  

 

God knows how much snow we’d get from that 

Will need to see the gefs runs too just to make sure it isn't a cold outlier ?

[Rayth]

15 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I think it might be on the cold side of the ENS , don’t you ?  

Maybe a touch 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Never ever seen runs like these before. GFS and the GEM this morning are just beyond ridiculous. -20 uppers leaving the Dutch coast at 180hrs out on GEM. I think there would be real risk of being properly cut off in Eastern parts, if these were to actually verify. Might be the first time ever that I get to experience some proper lake effect style snow!! 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say its  game on after tuesday after work im off to get another bag of rock salt  might need it  plenty of snow and biting winds  wind chill, if could  be very interesting in the uk next week

Edited February 17, 2018 by tinybill

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say its  game on after tuesday after work im off to get another bag of rock salt  might need it  plenty of snow and biting winds  wind chill, if could very interesting in the uk next week

Errr... That precip chart doesn't actually show anything over the UK