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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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good news for the mods is the models should firm up after the atlantic low pushes through wed night/thurs morn and high pressure slowly builds..

models with massive goose shaped highs should sort stuff out and everyone can settle down and enjoy models of likely deepening cold.

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43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The fixation on this thread with operationals beyond their reliable timeframe never ceases to amaze me.  Ecm clearly went awol with its jet distribution early in the run. Now it’s possible it could be onto something but the eps disagree so we bear it in mind for the 18z and 00z to follow but no need to make a song and dance over it. It’s currently a low probability outcome and interestingly, the run still manages some vertical WAA at day 6. Btw, the differences in the strat on this op run compared to its previous output also makes it questionable. 

Solid extended eps wrt to a v cold period.  The NAO shows a massive spread by the end of week 2 but the mean is very low. at the moment, i would be looking a the blocking edging away nw later week 2 and allowing the low heights to edge further n in general. That brings the Atlantic slowly ne towards the uk too along wit( the euro trough. 

Important changes and swings are taking place at <T120 so it is understandable IMO.

This is one place where we don't need to feel silly about getting emotionally invested in the weather - even if we do go overboard at times. :D

 

 

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I see this model has been put into the limelight this winter. How highly is this model regarded exactly?

By me? 

Not very.

By the people who count?

I'm not sure.

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I see this model has been put into the limelight this winter. How highly is this model regarded exactly?

Because it comes out just before all the other models:rofl: other than that it's useless lol

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All looks on track to me....at the moment and there is nothing to worry about yet because the models are just trying to fathem this SSW out

lets have a little look at some stuff

i know the means have been posted but lets have a look again...in animated mode,now what i notice is that the ecm retracts the pv from NE Canada to north central Canada and then look at the gefs from 240 hrs and it shows the pv migrate to Siberia from Canada i suspect that the ecm would go the same way if it went further

tempresult_poh0.thumb.gif.de42a7e532ef3f14e8ba918122cc6904.giftempresult_tvl2.thumb.gif.968e9bf99fac32cf03e640b62d6ae3ef.gif

the 240 hrs means from yesterdays 12z ecm and gefs along side the 216's from todays 12z

EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.4ff3d36e3b534612949210ee8b83e9fb.pngEDH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.67d999d5c98351120a80540bae76563f.png

sorry,i couldn't get the 240 hrs mean from the gefs and i didn't save it,but just to state the above from ecm mean and is looking better than yesterdays

now for the De-built

there is growing support of an easterly from the 20th

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.d38d70b725a253a1528a863aa845b130.png

cpc ens NAO/AO

the NAO for the first time this season forecasting to go into negative territory subject to the pv lifting out of NE Canada and the AO.well a good tanking there assisted by the reversal of the flow over the polar fields

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

and this is reflected by the NOAA with the pv migrating to north central Canada with height's building north of the uk and over the polar fields

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

i had better finish this post as i am running late for the 18z to come out:doh:

see yows...

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Seen as whoever quoted it won't give you an honest answer it's the same as all other models 

reliable model = it shows what i want it too

unreliable model = it isn't showing what i want it too

If like the ICON you only see it being quoted when it seems to be a wet dream for the coldies, it's probably an unreliable model

its good for trending... plus it will be more accurate than the 18z GFS tonight which as usual is struggling to resolve the energy moving south around the high @120 - The GFS just moves it east or North east..

Same old same old with the 18z im afraid-

Edited by Steve Murr

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Looking at the ensemble output, the general consensus that high pressure will build across the UK by around the 19th.

EDM1-144.GIF?13-0

Before pushing further north and east to swing the winds towards the east a couple of days later.

EDM1-192.GIF?13-0

I like the angle of the trough to our east which looks handy for advecting cold air towards us.

To be honest whilst the operationals swing wildly which really isn't a surprise, the general ensemble guidance looks pretty solid for conditions turning colder next week. How cold and how snowy is hard to judge at the moment which is the same message muttered by many over the past couple of days.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

its good for trending... plus it will be more accurate than the 18z GFS tonight which as usual is struggling to resolve the energy moving south around the high @120 - The GFS just moves it east ir North east..

Same old same old with the 18z im afraid-

Yes and it was compared with its 12z as a like for like, nothing more. Also pretty sure I gave an honest opinion of the model. :closedeyes:

icon-0-120.png?13-18icon-0-126.png?13-12

Edited by Mucka

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2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

No comments on gfs 18 yet. I'm only a begginer so only learning at the moment but this is better than gfs 12 isn't it ? 

Screenshot_20180213-221719.png

Thats the icon pal. 

 

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Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

Thats the icon pal. 

 

😂 just reliased that my bad!

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

All looks on track to me....at the moment and there is nothing to worry about yet because the models are just trying to fathem this SSW out

lets have a little look at some stuff

i know the means have been posted but lets have a look again...in animated mode,now what i notice is that the ecm retracts the pv from NE Canada to north central Canada and then look at the gefs from 240 hrs and it shows the pv migrate to Siberia from Canada i suspect that the ecm would go the same way if it went further

It does and it’s on its way by day 15 I guess ...

14D1C358-B1A2-4D91-8088-B03090681338.thumb.jpeg.c3cdfd89c5d9ac1ee3de78e52ebe7a63.jpeg

 

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Just now, Daniel said:

😂 just reliased that my bad!

But yes, it was better than the GFS 18z (As in bringing in HLB and cold quicker) even though GFS should get there second bite.

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No point worrying too much, but I think the pub run might end up pretty good in the extended range.

gfs-0-168.png?18

Cold air pushing west with the trough to our west disrupting with a clear path to push the high further north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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7 minutes ago, E17boy said:

METOFFICE BREAKING NEWS

Goodevening people hope everyone is having a relaxing evening. Just thought I bring you all a little update I just saw on the BBC extended weather.

It’s not the met office anymore though - fake headline 😂😂😂😂

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not the met office anymore though - fake headline 😂😂😂😂

Bloody Russians

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Viewing the op runs as today has progressed has shown one stark trend. The first attempt in bringing in the 'REAL'  cold looks like failing. It may take another roll of the dice to get lucky. Who knows? We might strike gold eventually! 

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Surprised there isn’t more comment on the cpc 8/14 day chart. Coldies can’t ask for much more than that (apart from it being a month earlier!)

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not the met office anymore though - fake headline 😂😂😂😂

But Met office still provide weather warnings so perhaps its a warning based on the models

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by cobby

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Starting to look interesting at 174 with a secondary push of heights up towards Iceland, could be in line for an attack from the north east? We'll see

gfsnh-0-174.png?18 

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How soon can we realistically expect the models to get a handle on the SSW and it's effects? 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Surprised there isn’t more comment on the cpc 8/14 day chart. Coldies can’t ask for much more than that (apart from it being a month earlier!)

Posted it earlier BA ^,looks good doesn't it:D

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