Jump to content

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

on 18z ICON, you can clearly see the importance of Gulf of Genoa low that will prevent High from sinking a classic trigger to some cold spells from past,lets hope she is there tomorrow

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

Posted Images

Just now, parrotingfantasist said:

Yet again! Same as last night! Stop judging the entirety of a run and going apopleptic when its only T114 in, its already confusing in here at the best of times!

Well if you look at the difference a to t96 the damage has been done and the difference is huge, nobody is going apoplectic? Bizzare post.

 

GFS looking much like its 12z, at least its consistently crap

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

You must be watching a different GFS than the one on my screen. Pressure differential is higher - block is stronger, low to the south deeper....

Looks very similar to the 12z to me??

IMG_0198.PNG

IMG_0199.PNG

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

You must be watching a different GFS than the one on my screen. Pressure differential is higher - block is stronger, low to the south deeper....

Yep all it needs to do is have the high slightly higher and bang you have the easterly ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

on 18z ICON, you can clearly see the importance of Gulf of Genoa low that will prevent High from sinking a classic trigger to some cold spells from past,lets hope she is there tomorrow

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

Yes,this low is stronger on the 18z gfs to that of the 12z,can only be more beneficial later on:)

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Yet again! Same as last night! Stop judging the entirety of a run and going apoplectic when its only T114 in, its already confusing in here at the best of times!

 

 

edit: sp mistake

And like last night - The building blocks to this Easterly happen between 72-102hrs. It's at this point ICON/ECM/GEM get the pieces in place to go onto produce the bitterly cold Easterlies that they produce for next week. The GFS doesn't do this at the same timeframe and thus, the Easterly is delayed compared to the other models. 

You don't always need to see an entire run to know the outcome, especially when anything beyond T114 may as well not even exist given the huge amount of fluctuation between runs at the moment.

Yes, GFS will get there. It's actually more amplified at 144 than the 12z was so in that way, it's an improvement, but that means nothing if it's already gone wrong at the 72hrs mark.

Poor short term, improvement mid-long term.

Edited by Daniel Smith
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ruben Amsterdam said:

The problem is the small low of the Norwegian coast shown here at +96. This prevents fusion between the two area's of high pressure. 

GFSOPEU18_96_1.png

It was a shortwave off the coast of Norway that shafted the Dec 2012 ‘that’ ECM easterly if I recall. Different gravy this time though. 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No one notice Exeter going with raw ukmo at day 5 then ............

Yes bizarre !

This really is a stand off because the ECM mean really couldn’t be any more behind the op at day 4 and if you get to that point the UKMO simply can’t verify .

 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No one notice Exeter going with raw ukmo at day 5 then ............

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

I was just going to say I thought they always went with the raw chart at that range?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The 5 day fax chart goes with the ukmo raw 99% of the time no matter what so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

Yep I'm pretty sure they only interfere at t96 and below . BBC easterly by weds and turning cold with snow at the end of the week . That's the favoured outcome ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes bizarre !

This really is a stand off because the ECM mean really couldn’t be any more behind the op at day 4 and if you get to that point the UKMO simply can’t verify .

 

Being the weather geek I am, I have noticed over the years that those fax charts are only ever modified against the ukmo raw at around the 3 day timeframe. Days 4 and 5 (the late evening updates) always mirror the ukmo raw. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...