Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[nick sussex]

Very exciting ECM run so far.

Lets hope the UKMO can come on board as that’s still a concern.

To think I was eating lunch outside today in 21 c and sunshine , in less than a week close to freezing with snow .

Everything crossed that just for once one of these sensational charts will verify and deliver some great end of winter cold and snow for the UK.

[Optimus Prime]

10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

But you can literally see that the energy has NOT gone over the top between T96 and T144

 

It isn't?

 

[summerplume18]

Remember everyone- don't tell your friends and families about the impending cold spell. 

 

On a model note there is brutal cold out east. 240 will be a peach 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Optimus Prime said:

It isn't?

 

The energy curving round the block and underneath is whats keeping it propped up, we want that curve over Scandi. 

The energy from the Vortex over Canada/Greenland however, has not. It's just sortof sat there slowly weakening against the block.

[radiohead]

240....in the freezer

[Purga]

Seriously cold!

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, radiohead said:

240....in the freezer

Weve gone into the freezer and started a new ice age across europe.

[Met4Cast]

Anddd Greenland retrogression!

 

ECM would have the UK locked into cold for at least 2 weeks with widespread heavy snow. No marginality, powder snow for many. Incredible run and quite frankly, the very best outcome that we can hope for.

[That ECM]

Sausage? That's a frankfurter

[Mike Poole]

Did someone mention retrogression?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

good evening  dont  know what  the gfs had  for breckfast after i went  to work but it seems the ssw and blasting  eastlys are heading our way fron feb 24 all i can what 12 hours things  can change, ex when i saw the met warning someone told me  at work i looked  at him  oldly thinking  didnt see  that at  530 before going  to work

[Cloud 10]

ECM ends with a murr sausage at 240hrs.

 

[WalsallWeather123]

-14 Uppers

Edited February 16, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[chionomaniac]

ECM a bit disappointing tonight because any showers between days 8-9 could be a bit sleety.....

 

 

 

 

........(Can't remember seeing such a great run for a very long time if ever on internet)

[nick sussex]

OMG that cold pool this late in the season is unbelievable . Almost historic for this late.

Can you imagine how cold that would have shown in January !

Regardless simply stunning!

[Scandinavian High.]

Uk looking cold South East England very cold.

[Frosty.]

Unbelievably the Ecm 12z is an upgrade on the 00z because it locks in the very cold pattern potentially well beyond T+240 hours..big time freeze on the way if this is even close!!..awesome doesn't do this run justice!

[Day 10]

Why can't that be tomorrow.

[Optimus Prime]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The energy curving round the block and underneath is whats keeping it propped up, we want that curve over Scandi. 

The energy from the Vortex over Canada/Greenland however, has not. It's just sortof sat there slowly weakening against the block.

It's stopping the high from retrogressing to Greenland, that was really my point and the only real route to prolonged cold and an easterly to the western seaboard of the US and beyond. The ECM isn't showing that. 

I actually have to admit I think that may well be the eventual outcome. Just not until the very end of this month/March. I have a suspicion March will be a month of two VERY different halves. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[radiohead]

-21 uppers to our east....some seriously cold air to tap into there beyond 240 hours.

[Radiating Dendrite]

That ECM is the best run I've seen in 10 years of model watching. 

The type of cold you would sell your grandmother for!

 

[nick sussex]

Horrible ECM run I wish it would stop churning out these mild outliers!  

[tight isobar]

Ecm 12z 

Wow super synoptics.

And true news making weather on that run.

And easily feasible imo...

Mesmerizing stuff...truly!!

[Froze were the Days]

Too many people getting excited again at 9/10 days time charts - how many times have we seen this from the ECM or GFS only to be watered down or simply not verify this winter?...

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM is good enough to lower heights suffficiently to our south and prop the high far enough north for an easterly.

My goodness, that cold pool coming on the scene in week 2, that would be one in the historic events list if that comes off. It is certainly feasible given the background signals at least.

There would also be some snow arriving during that first pulse of cold air around day7/8