Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tight isobar]

Finaly looks as resolve may be at a turning point...

When the beast aligns-and incursion starts....the covective snow machine potential...is enough to make your nose bleed tbh!!!

Anyway awaiting then ens 12z a certain decline expected....

'Signals strengthening'..

 

 

[Banbury]

Be funny if that run was on the mild side 

[Ali1977]

my Guess is the ENS will hit a mean of atleast -8c for London around the 27th...big upgrade expected

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes, deep deep cold advecting west like the charge of the light brigade......incredible run from now

 

BFTP

And we all know what happened to them, Fred? 

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If this happened this would surely break some records - crazy windchill and blizzards, maximums -2/3 c ....

If being the operative word. At this rate it will be mid-July by the time the beast actually gets round to paying us a visit.

That said those charts are quite simply weather porn, and that is not a ramp. Some serious cold.

[A.J]

30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well  as regards to my wrestling......GEM has just done a Dwayne ‘Rock’ Johnson on thr flatter opposition.  I’ve always rated the GEM.....always  

 

BFTP

If ya  smmmmmmmmmmmellllllllll what the GEM....................... is cookin'!            lol

a good day on the modelling front......ECM producing a couple of great runs for coldies, the GEM is there, ICON ditto, even the GooFuS has had an identty crisis and is starting to believe it's the ECM.......the UKMO at T144 is no disaster and we're almost there!....what can go wrong? 

[E17boy]

Calm people although the models don't look I think fingers crossed the others will eventually catch on to the ECM my gut feeling tells me this is what's going to happen fingers crossed. May be completely wrong but that's how I fell. 

Hoping for some better output later

wishing you all a great Friday 

regards ????

 

Could we be getting there ?????????

Edited February 16, 2018 by Paul

[Singularity]

  

JMA makes for another key run checked off the list although yes, not quite as good as the 00z. Hardly anything in it though  

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Be funny if that run was on the mild side 

I definitely reckon there will be some even colder ensembles in there , maybe even -18 850s ?

[Paul]

We have a thread open for the potential cold spell thread now, for those wanting to chat more generally about it without just talking about the forecasting model output.

 

[John Michael How]

22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If this happened this would surely break some records - crazy windchill and blizzards, maximums -2/3 c ....

Pretty much what the ECM showed for the same timeframe on the 0z ?❄☃️

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Oh GFS FI

[Ali1977]

Mixed bag on the GEFS by 144, a few better many not as good - it’ll still be better than the last set 

[Southender]

Odds on the ECM to jump ship this evening now? Please can we just have some consistency ??

Edited February 16, 2018 by Southender

[Derecho]

Quite a few GFS ensemble members fall back into the old habit of developing excessively deep dartboard Atlantic lows.

The op isn't without support with P9, P11 and P13 bullish to bring in the cold easterly, a definite swing towards a more blocked set of ensembles anyway. (T192)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

30 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

If ya  smmmmmmmmmmmellllllllll what the GEM....................... is cookin'!            lol

a good day on the modelling front......ECM producing a couple of great runs for coldies, the GEM is there, ICON ditto, even the GooFuS has had an identty crisis and is starting to believe it's the ECM.......the UKMO at T144 is no disaster and we're almost there!....what can go wrong? 

Yep......-50C Easterlies are a knocking 

 

BFTP

Edited February 16, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Scandinavian High.]

Heavy snow showers in to South East England..

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Greeting from a sunny Austria. View from apartment towards Tshneck run. Feels a bit warmer today with temp just above freezing. Just had a chat with our portal forecast service providers with specifics regarding the UK outlook.  Like most forecasting agencies the present SSW has created a fair bit of confusion as confirmed by the present model outputs. The divergence in models is quite acute even at 84h as highlighted by the latest Arpege run that switches the flow dramatically from Westerly component to Easterly in a matter of 48 hours. My question to the duty forecaster is "where do you stand in your thoughts " ?  Answer, Err difficult that one, however their best advise is now follow UKMO fax charts/Arpege out to 72h as their own model shows the same great uncertainty in its outputs. Human input is now more than likely to feature in the forecasts as the model diverge is too great at the moment/ Final observation , they think increasing chance of much of Europe to go into freezer by Day 6 at the latest ( hopefully blighty included ) Hope this helps a little!

Just a further thought to the above, forecasts this evening from the computer models now all now showing cold outlook on the agenda. Now SSW has taken place, it sometimes takes up to 10 days for the full cold effect to take place. Our service provider think 70 % certainty now , which is in the high category . Of course timing and depth of cold is still on the cards. Still could switch quickly ( with 96h time ) or more likely Day 6 into the freezer. Fax viewing is now the best option to watch the developing cold and speed of advection. Short wave positioning to the East could also impact greatly as to source of cold ( ie) Arctic C or Continental flow ).

 C

[Timmytour]

38 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Calm people although the models don't look I think fingers crossed the others will eventually catch on to the ECM my gut feeling tells me this is what's going to happen fingers crossed. May be completely wrong but that's how I fell. 

Hoping for some better output later

wishing you all a great Friday 

regards ????

 

Could we be getting there ?????????

Wish I could get a post to stay on as long at this one! 

[bobbydog]

the GFS is on a wind-up isn't it??

it should be called the F F S!

Edited February 16, 2018 by bobbydog

[AWD]

 

20 minutes ago, Southender said:

Odds on the ECM to jump ship this evening now? Please can we just have some consistency ??

If people are expecting a repeat performance of it's 0z Det run, then there is a good chance they will be disappointed.

The 0z Det run was clearly one of the more optimistic members with ref to cold weather in it's ens suite, more so in the mid - long range path.

That being said, there are not many "mild" routes left that it could take based on those.

Edited February 16, 2018 by AWD
Insert supporting evidence

[Banbury]

Great GFS run , ties in with a press release by the Met 

Lets hope ECM follows tonight, could be an interesting weekend for model watching 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

 

If people are expecting a repeat performance of it's 0z Det run, then there is a good chance they will be disappointed.

The 0z Det run was clearly one of the more optimistic members with ref to cold weather in it's ens suite, more so in the mid - long range.

It's pretty much following the mean until the 24th, then one of the colder members thereafter.

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the GFS is on a wind-up isn't it??

it should be called the F F S!

There may be a few days difference but it could be a game of my dad is bigger than your dad!

[tight isobar]

The london ones...12z ens...

Not perfect....

Quite a bizzare set on further inspection !!???

Edited February 16, 2018 by tight isobar