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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Gfs t180, trough dropping east of Scandi behind the HP, small trough in Atlantic looks like sliding under towards the Euro trough......HP moving North.....I think a mega t200+ coming

 

BFTP 

Yes, deep deep cold advecting west like the charge of the light brigade......incredible run from now

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Indeed, cold southeasterly flow but milder in the northwest.

In fact ICON looks pretty much like the Met Office update too, not sure where the potential for heavy snow bit is going to come from though on ICON or GFS.:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

I swear this GFS run is rolling out more slowly than usual :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

What a great forum when things go right for coldies - it’s a rare thing I know but it’s looking good ? GFS about to deliver -14/16 uppers at day 12 I reckon !!

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

Lovely icon, easterly setting up mid week and full blow by the weekend, but to me this seems like it will just be cold and dry, no snow at all as mentioned above, beat me to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

What a great forum when things go right for coldies - it’s a rare thing I know but it’s looking good ? GFS about to deliver -14/16 uppers at day 12 I reckon !!

It was day 6, then day 10, then day 12 ;) 

 

That's the worrying part, delaying it further lol

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I'm not taking this run seriously beyond the initial shortwave dropping South and the general improvements within 102hrs. 

But, I can't wait to see if the ensembles do a classic all jump ship to cold!

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

It was day 6, then day 10, then day 12 ;) 

 

That's the worrying part, delaying it further lol

Looks like upgrade to me south easterlys kick in later next week 

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

Can’t see clearly, and I don’t really think much of this model, but also another one showing an NE’ly  then easterly to a SE’ly next week.

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Edited by Justin123
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

What a cracking end to winter this would be, 28th Feb, bitterly cold easterly, -14c uppers clipping Kent. Very heavy snowfall.:cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_312_1.png

Jaw dropping northern blocking. If that were to happen it would be good riddence to the Atlantic cold blob and herald a shift back towards more -NAOs, this would swing the see-saw the other way.

Absolutely stunning but lets see where it stands in the ensembles. If they flip and the ECM also looks very cold, it will be a case of when and not if the easterly arrives.

Given where we was this time yesterday it would be like a football team being 3-0 down after 70 minutes and winning 4-3, it could be quite the turnaround.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, snowray said:

What a cracking end to winter this would be, 28th Feb, bitterly cold easterly, -14c uppers clipping Kent. Very heavy snowfall.:cold::cold:

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If this happened this would surely break some records - crazy windchill and blizzards, maximums -2/3 c ....

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
22 minutes ago, Scott Meleady said:

APERGE is not good. That followed with the ECM 00z ... well

Errrr you mean this one? Or are you of a mild persuasion 

54E0DE01-FAD9-4934-BB55-D577871F351F.thumb.gif.691b861fc635dc3798b288abba3f12a8.gif:ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Now we are starting to see the sort of charts that we would expect to see with the massive SSW starting to filter down and completely upset the default NH weather patterns.

The GFS is absolutely stunning. The GEM is absolutely bonkers.

In keeping with this week, it is safe to say we all know what the ECM is going to do now then, a Bartlett slug or blowtorch SWerlies? :D

Joking. I suspect it will be good (don't hold me to that though!).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

So where were we..... ah yes 10 days away :rofl:

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the winter that just kept on giving.... 10 day nirvana charts! 

Joking aside it does fit in with the “when, not if” we’ve seen banded about the media

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