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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Just now, Banbury said:

Think we’d all be happy with this 

E9C4B872-1E0B-402D-B87D-67B952F57F31.png

Indeed! That drag of cold air is long fetch over some very cold lands...

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

hgt300.png hgt300.png

The very narrow ridge formation in the jet stream is a little better defined on this run so far.

It appears to be resulting in a more 'disrupting' shape to the main Atlantic trough which could mean a small low splits off that and slips south to reinforce the Euro trough with the ridge from Scandinavia building across in its wake.

h850t850eu.png

Hmm okay if it is happening it's very faint - but these adjustments are certainly positive so far and bring the output that bit closer to the likes of the 00z ECM, JMA and ARPEGE :) 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

UKmo looking like its  back on track at 96hrs.

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS is on it's shameful climbdown at long last!

GFS.thumb.png.b2061e5c1f1be44ab1054eaadd4dcd47.png

Massive improvement over previous runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

icon gives us the easterly-

icon-0-156.thumb.png.83213c06f09354e64d68535a783ecf54.png

but the cold uppers are struggling to make it over here-

icon-1-156.thumb.png.bbf0e61a2231e114fa1de8848f1c46c1.png

must be all the hot air from this thread...:whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Boom - think the 12zs deserve one - I think we can be much more assured of cold late next week now. GFS by Wed looks like lining an Easterly up - reckon by Fri we’ll be in -8c uppers and snow showers 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Yesterday’s GFS 12z

63A9BF45-5F5B-4783-BA4C-18ED5B941EF6.thumb.png.01f9b07a09297e99183c6a62af710f94.png

Today’s 12z 

2DAEDCA9-96EF-4A9D-AA53-AB77604FE7AC.thumb.png.debeada171767395f5ac6695db05c8cf.png

Big differences and in the right way for us coldies! Hopefully we only see further improvements from here.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

So GFS is actually having a half-decent go at the easterly. Just needs the angle of the flow to be N enough up the western side of the ridging to link it up to that dangling down from the Arctic.

 

UKMO 12z on the other hand... it just doesn't drop that little low fast enough so the Euro trough ends up too far south as of +120. More room for recovery over the following two days than the 00z had though - if only that vague area to the NE would see some solid SLP rises!

UW96-21.GIF?16-16 UW120-21.GIF?16-17

Second UKMO in a row to mysteriously vapourise the Scandinavian ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

The mighty GFS throws in the towel, the biggest capitulation of the Winter season.:cold:56494.thumb.jpg.d6bf523be415331b01e59c1fd960f925.jpg

Here comes our easterly, snow showers moving in from the north sea by D5,what could possibly go wrong now?:aggressive:

 

No more roller coasters now please! GEM looking brilliant there, so GFS still undecided.

gem-0-120.png

gem-1-120.png

gem-2-120.png

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, snowray said:

The mighty GFS throws in the towel, the biggest capitulation of the Winter season.:cold:56494.thumb.jpg.d6bf523be415331b01e59c1fd960f925.jpg

Here comes our easterly, snow showers moving in from the north sea by D5,what could possibly go wrong now?:aggressive:

 

No more roller coasters now please!!!!!:laugh:

gem-0-120.png

gem-1-120.png

gem-2-120.png

That's the GEM old bean! NOT THE GFS

Edited by Rocheydub
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

hgt300.png hgt300.png

Well now that is some difference in the jet behaviour relative to the UK.

Ridge tendency is NE at the 250 mb level.

h850t850eu.png

Need need to get those shallow disturbances out of the way. Easier said than done I know!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

For those who said things will get resolved tonight, think again.  Still big differences at day 5.  UKMO is a big worry...

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Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley

That lobe of the polar vortex that moves in from the east and over the top of the Scandi ridge between T72 and T96 is doing us no favours; it squashed the ridge on the ECM 00z as well, but on that run the Scandi High held on.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

That's the GEM old bean! NOT THE GFS

Yes, i just added that its the GEM....I need some time off, fatigue setting in big time now with these models.:crazy:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I certainly wouldn’t worry about the 144 chart 

The Aprege has taken a step back from the easterly though.

I think the picture this afternoon remains mixed.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

At 141 hours the gfs is giving us a sausage from the east but it needs to adjust north because otherwise the easterly can be found in the Pyrenees and Alps latitude.

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