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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

All the models subdivide the atmosphere into a grid of 3D cells. Each cell in the grid is a cuboid (or icosahedron in the case of the ICON) sharing the same properties: temperature, pressure, etc. The smaller the cells, the higher the resolution and (hopefully) the more accurate the model.

 

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Based on the update the Met are discounting the GFS and it's ensemble suite and must be relying on EPS & GLOSEA, this to me suggests we'll see the GFS continue to switch across to the ECM solution.

No significant change from the ICON just yet

ICON1.thumb.png.94f1c9a009b1677eafd76a7633ee0dc8.png

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Met Office has updated and there's been no chance, still talking of possible significant snow. 

I know not strictly model related but the above tells us that the Met are discounting the GFS and it's ensemble suite and must be relying on EPS & GLOSEA, this to me suggests we'll see the GFS continue to switch across to the ECM solution.

No significant change from the ICON just yet

ICON1.thumb.png.94f1c9a009b1677eafd76a7633ee0dc8.png

Shortwave appears to be dropping south earlier to me.... just

5A64A1DC-1856-4513-9FC8-D0FC4EAE57FE.thumb.png.334a74cc1d9d148cfb07ec045dd11e10.png

let’s see how it evolves in the next few frames... tense 

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I know we do this dance pretty much daily, but please, please (x10) can we keep the meto stuff in the meto thread, this thread is for discussing the models. 

Also, the banter thread is open and busy for those who just want to chat loosely about the models, perhaps react emotionally (eg moan or ramp up 'feelings' about what the models may or may not do) etc. Those sort of posts are fine, just not in here, as this thread should be for discussing the actual output. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

 

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10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

All the models subdivide the atmosphere into a grid of 3D cells. Each cell in the grid is a cuboid (or icosahedron in the case of the ICON) sharing the same properties: temperature, pressure, etc. The smaller the cells, the higher the resolution and (hopefully) the more accurate the model.

 

thanks. And thanks for the others that replied.

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Pretty consistent by the ICON, bravo ? 

FADDFCC0-5316-43A6-A428-7E5AB435727E.thumb.png.8c9963c3dc506fbb27103907c848e8ae.png39719E7A-89EB-429F-99EF-C2112929C2C3.thumb.png.ed7d95a5418ea30da2de2481b39c4eb8.png

If we can get some form of agreement out to +72, that would be a good start to the 12z I’d say. 

Edited by karlos1983
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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Upgrade from the ICON. Easterly flow at 81hrs

UPD.thumb.png.a523c684665378f50dc57fa07b04ebbf.png

EDIT: Helps if I upload the right chart

Not sure if I'd rather the Azores High pushed on through and let the cold come in from the East or just bugged off NW and let the cold LP come in as a V cold PM shot...I guess either way could work out for cold. Question I guess is that although the ICON model is showing an output coldies could live with, will it verify?

Those heights up towards Norway don't look that strong to my admittedly naiive eye...

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Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

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Posts are vanishing faster than the output is flipping at the moment.

If your comment isn't model related, is a dig, a moan, a gripe, or something that <probably> involves a gif, either spare yourself the time typing it, or PLEASE post it in the right thread.

There is a PM function for you to chat to other members. Calling out off topic or unpleasant posts  isn't helpful, because more people then reply to the off topic post which creates a cascade of work, very similar to the cascade I've just had to remove. If you don't like a post, control your inner keyboard warrior and just report it.

Thanks!

Edited by Team Jo
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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

To be fair when FI begins at T96 small changes at T48 will make all the difference if this circumstance.

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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Why oh why do people comment on the early nuances (24-48) on each run. They rarely if ever make any difference in the greater scheme. Sure only yesterday and this morning, we had 4 or 5 instances of the "looks like game over' quickly followed by "this is a big improvement" on a few of the runs. Let it run to until T72/96, anything else is just fanciful!

Because in this instance, it does make a difference. Models diverge around 72hrs with the tracking of the shortwave. Where that shortwaves goes determines where the rest of the run is heading. 

GFS out to 78hrs is an improvement too, shortwave cleanly moved Southwards.

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h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

hgt300.png hgt300.png

The very narrow ridge formation in the jet stream is a little better defined on this run so far.

It appears to be resulting in a more 'disrupting' shape to the main Atlantic trough which could mean a small low splits off that and slips south to reinforce the Euro trough with the ridge from Scandinavia building across in its wake.

h850t850eu.png

Hmm okay if it is happening it's very faint - but these adjustments are certainly positive so far and bring the output that bit closer to the likes of the 00z ECM, JMA and ARPEGE :) 

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