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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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I'm beginning to wonder whether what we will actually end up with is the infamous February 2011 setup;

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Extremely cold air close by which battled to push west for a week but never quite won away from  the SE and East.

That would be a let down if this were to happen again and coupled with more favourable conditions compared to Feb 2011.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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4 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The most anticipated 12zs for many of years .One way or another I think will know tonight.

I'm not even sure we'll have it nailed by the 00z's tonight. This is unprecedented model uncertainty. I'd wager we'll have some agreement by 12z's tomorrow. Hopefully a big E'ly that will give me and you some over due sneachta! 

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6 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The most anticipated 12zs for many of years .One way or another I think will know tonight.

You do?

i don’t expect gfs or the gefs to be there yet (wherever ‘there ‘ is)

 

 

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The GEFS 6z mean shows a fairly ordinary outlook, no sign of a freeze anyway, predominantly benign with temps close to average. 

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Edited by Frosty.
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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

for me I need the UKMO on board & a return to the ECM evolution as UKMO has wiped out the ECM @ ENS suite before !

Agree Steve - just checked and ukmo has 70 vertical levels. Perhaps also not enough at this early stage of the response ??

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7 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Sure i remember the JMA got an upgrade to 100 vertical levels recently?

Correct! If I'm right its upgrade took place just over a year ago.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Correct! If I'm right its upgrade took place just over a year ago.

 

6 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Sure i remember the JMA got an upgrade to 100 vertical levels recently?

The bumf says it’s 60 in the atmosphere and 52 in the ocean ...... this new information ‘muddies the waters ‘ !!!!

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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

for me I need the UKMO on board & a return to the ECM evolution as UKMO has wiped out the ECM @ ENS suite before !

Yep, agreed. If UKMO Is half decent then we are in with a shout 

Fax charts are also a v good indication 

Edited by Banbury
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

The bumf says it’s 60 in the atmosphere and 52 in the ocean ...... this new information ‘muddies the waters ‘ !!!!

Without getting too much off topic is that not the Seasonal model that has the 60 and 52 where as the daily has 100 vertical levels?...anyway roll on the 12zs

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Interesting, done a little research...

For comparison with JMA's 100 levels of vertical resolution.

The ECM uses 137 vertical levels, whereas the GFS uses 64 levels. 

Whether there are any relation to how the JMA & ECM have a similar pattern at the moment unsure. 

EDIT: ARPEGE runs with 105 vertical levels.

Therefore the 3 models all of which following a blocked pattern all have the largest amount of vertical levels compared to the UKMO and GFS which have less.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Using the most popular OP runs on here at just 4 days out (Tuesday 20th 1am).

As it stands from today's runs we have 3 different groups.

Rubbish - UKMO

UN96-21.thumb.GIF.62a3bdeece83c8a54cf3f9e37acdcf98.GIF

Getting there but not quite - Middle Ground  - GEM, GFS, ICON, NAVGEM (however GEM & NAVGEM showing interest towards the end of their respective runs)

gemnh-0-96.thumb.png.93678a43b7f8666e0a7a1b5a8acb3d2c.pnggfsnh-0-90.thumb.png.ed1448efd2c3e65cf14691051d2fa5ec.pngiconnh-0-90.thumb.png.3b18d1c02997dbfe0dadcab5686e377b.pngnavgemnh-0-90.thumb.png.c89493df0f8ca2937c1a4e0126d739d0.png

Pick of the bunch and go on to produce the goods! - ARPEGE, ECM, JMA

arpegenh-0-96.thumb.png.4f41c1a34ea2bc10a6423f94aa472da1.pngECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.56d07b38bef3177041130cdb56371d6a.pngJN108-21.thumb.GIF.7492035f7f194bec5be572404e261339.GIF

 

So all in all still a mixed bag, but for me we are tipping the scale toward a colder outlook than a milder one and as the last 3 charts show still a good chance of going on to produce a belting Easterly further ahead! Even if the first attempt fails I'm sure we will get a second bite.

Will we come to a closer resolution tonight???

 

 

 

Edited by Day 10
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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Be interesting to know what ICON has in terms of vertical layers.. not least because we get to see it first! 

90

navgem only 50 levels and runs at 37km! Surely it’s more a case of a broken clock with this resolution ???

Edited by bluearmy
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Arpege is 105 ......

soon be time for something productive

can I make my prediction that the 12z’s will generally be a slight improvement on the 00z though the ecm will not. I expect the modelling to hone in on a Scandi/uk high for the time being and without being able to gain enough latitude to bring a deeply cold flow to the uk. 

Edited by bluearmy
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2 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

My understanding is the more levels the more likely it is to be accurate. Unless of course you have an historical SSW unfolding, at which point it could have 300 and we’d still be none the wiser lol

Edited by karlos1983
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I know the next set of runs are important ,but surely the met office update,due anytime now is even more important,if they backtrack then it’s most probably game over ,hide behind the sofa time coming up......:fool:

ok still the same as before..

Edited by SLEETY
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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My understanding is the more levels the more likely it is to be accurate. Unless of course you have a historical SSW unfolding, at which point it could have 300 and we’d still be none the wiser lol

 

5 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

May I please ask what the levels of vertical resolution refer to?

 

Only have a basic understanding too, but the ECM which have double the vertical levels of GFS has a better grasp at predicting the track and development of weather systems than the GFS

I think? :cc_confused:

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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