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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Yup, pretty sure those the Canary Islands. :hi:

gfsnh-0-186.png?6

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

*stop press*

*Weather Agencies upgrade models due to SSW*

Big news today folks as the major weather agencies proudly announce 3 new super models......Heide Klum, Cindy Crawford, & Ellie Macpherson....A spokesperson at met office was quoted as saying "in this current volatile climate, we feel that these 3 new super models will give us our best chance of resolving the SSW dilemma, we have faith that Heide, Cindy & Ellie can take our knowledge to a new level and besides, it'll make the office calanders look far more attractive".........Asked why the UKMO, GFS & ECM hve been dropped, he replied, "after viewing the overnight outputs all our senior forecasters can think of is white powder, flip flops & prozac"

well, that's my take on the current model outputs folks, it's a mess, but joking aside, quite a few pro's have been tweeting for quite a few days to take all output with a pinch of salt, FI's at T96 IMHO, have a lovely day!

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

The madness......

Barbie

image.thumb.png.dce5163818f67c014eb6233b87946525.png

Or Huskies...

image.thumb.png.b022a81edd8320bc49a4129b7f71688f.png

Good fun though....:rofl:

Edited by Purga
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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

I may be wrong but I think the ECM and JMA have the most comprehensive strat data fed in with the rest of the initialisation data. In theory that should be a good thing, with their most recent runs as they are. But theorys and 'what should happen' means little right now...

image.png

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The T96/120 faxes are from yesterday’s 12z output 

they only update in the evenings 

Yep, but at that range they remain the latest fax chart. That time span T96/120 is more often and not adjusted by a senior forecaster as a result of model changes in the short time span. I should know as worked on fax charts for many years and the principle remain the same today. Fax charts were the innovation of the Bracknell team many years ago under its director Dr Mason. Still the first charts I look at, even over here in a foreign fiels. Of course you are right about the timings.

 C

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, Purga said:

The madness......

Barbie

 

Or Huskies...

 

Good fun though....:rofl:

 

image.png

We could get an early Spanish Plume out of that setup on the positive :rofl:

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Yep, but at that range they remain the latest fax chart. That time span T96/120 is more often and not adjusted by a senior forecaster as a result of model changes in the short time span. I should know as worked on fax charts for many years and the principle remain the same today. Fax charts were the innovation of the Bracknell team many years ago under its director Dr Mason. Still the first charts I look at, even over here in a foreign fiels. Of course you are right about the timings.

 C

What do your models show over there Carinthian?,if you don't mind me asking?.

Thanks. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The gefs is an odd one

we are now seeing by day 10 the eps mean showing broadly what the gefs fi have been and now the gefs jumps ship. It’s not a sudden jump either - the past few suites have been watering down the high level blocking. 

The eps has been fairly consistent on its approach to high res day 10. If we are to assume that the eps is doing well (consistency wise) because of its decent strat profiling then how come the low res gefs were getting it further out but have now lost it ??

doesnt make sense to me.

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
11 minutes ago, joggs said:

What do your models show over there Carinthian?,if you don't mind me asking?.

Thanks. 

Hi Joggs, just got back from a trip to Italy so will try and catch up with their latest views specifically to UK later today. 

CHEERS

 C

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

GFS ensembles out to 120 are still absolutely pointless, I know that but I still can't help looking:wallbash:

One of these ensemble suites has got this seriously wrong!

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hi Joggs, just got back from a trip to Italy so will try and catch up with their latest views specifically to UK later today. 

CHEERS

 C

Thank you.

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

I think we going to have a pattern similar to Jan/Feb 2006 where HP is splat bang right over UK sending any LP systems tracking towards Iceland and then Norway.  Interestingly we are at about the same level in the solar cycle as we were back then.

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted
28 minutes ago, Purga said:

The madness......

Barbie

image.thumb.png.dce5163818f67c014eb6233b87946525.png

Or Huskies...

image.thumb.png.b022a81edd8320bc49a4129b7f71688f.png

Good fun though....:rofl:

I'm anticipating we end up with a moderated version of the two

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

sorry 1 more post

the mean of the 06z has moved ( in the atlantic ) quite a way t

There's still way too much energy going over the top and the jet is refusing to play ball, not that the GEFS are of any use in the slightest as proven by the recent debacles so I honestly don't know why I even look, gallows humour or something.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Eps clusters say almost 80/20 for the upper Scandi ridge in the day 5/8 period.

infact the op cluster is around 25% with the largest at 50% which is a little slower in bringing an upper tough west into play from our east as the op did. the  larger cluster cuts off the Scandi ridge earlier than the op. If the other models don’t drift towards the ec scenario then this is a grand scale eps fail in a very short timeframe.

there remains a middle ground but even this looks like it would be pretty cold.

 

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted

Perb 17 is very similar to ECM at 144 hrs - time for some more straw clutching :) 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

A real mixed bag from the GEFS 6z at day 7 with some showing the block winning and others showing the Atlantic being too strong and some others inbetween..anyway, hope the Ecm op / mean is right, if it is, we are heading for a major cold spell.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters say almost 80/20 for the upper Scandi ridge in the day 5/8 period.

infact the op cluster is around 25% with the largest at 50% which is a little slower in bringing an upper tough west into play from our east as the op did. the  larger cluster cuts off the Scandi ridge earlier than the op. If the other models don’t drift towards the ec scenario then this is a grand scale eps fail in a very short timeframe.

there remains a middle ground but even this looks like it would be pretty cold.

 

The thing that makes me slightly more confident BA is the METO are on board still (touch wood ) . And the METO are not going to just be going on the ECM and eps. Glosea and mogreps must also be showing the easterly. It would be and epic fail from ecm and METO if this goes balls up . ?. But as you say complete flip on the GEFS is very strange . There is this purb in the 6z suit at 144hrs that is similar to ecm , it couldn't be could it ? ?

IMG_1517.PNG

IMG_1518.PNG

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shane303 Explorer

shane303

Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
Posted

In 24 hours everything will change again on a major scale so don’t take this morning’s outputs to heart 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Not much to say really

7F44F42C-DF8F-4F4D-AAD1-4F7C40A345E6.thumb.jpeg.f1936141531b204b4f1fde5cc508c329.jpeg

 ECM says yes to the err ECM :D

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