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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

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It’s the same old story as soon as the models have to deal with anything from the ne and a trigger shortwave type scenario all manner of drama breaks out.

Anyway from what we can see from the UKMO at T168hrs it looks like the low to the nw heads north and a shortwave cuts se as the high heads ne very quickly given its position at T144hrs hrs.

 

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Here’s what we are up against. 12z ens.

C016379C-3728-4534-B6F7-2C67DB1500B9.thumb.png.6b62df65bfdf90050f48068f6d3c9260.png

25th Feb. The op goes from the warmest member to the coldest member in the space of a little over 24 hours.

Scatter city.

Exactly, the toy throwers should take comfort from that, not dospair. It would be nice to see freezing cold operational after freezing cold operational, but that’s not likely given the “noise”. ECM is just odd towards the end, my expectation is it’s gone from one of its coldest members on the 00z to one of the mildest on its 12z. I really urge people to wait for ensembles to come out before jumping the gun. Also just take a step back have a little think so you can take the emotion out of it which will perhaps allow you to take a more measured approach. That’s what I do anyway. 

GFS operational doesn’t take any other Purb with it on its rollercoaster ride, so it’s not looking that likely imho. 

F31A2096-0D9A-4AAF-85C2-3F73A22F35D9.thumb.gif.b4f5da33e60b7058929b09cbb857f74d.gif 

Ps @tight isobar I see the magic -16 850 has arrived right on Cue 8)

Edited by karlos1983
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13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Completely agree with you but Ice cold joined in October 2017!! We've all felt his pain and frustration especially in our early days. 

This is very true, experience always wins out. 

The way we each individually interpret the thread and the charts will change with time and experience/learnings.

I remember when I first discovered the wonderful world of models discussion (on the hunt for snow obviously) way back in 2005. I would hang on every comment and every run. 

Im a little more chilled in my old age lol, though still am ever the optimist.

though as I've said before this SSW has certainly changed the way I'm looking at the mid term at the moment. 

Blocked cold conditions are odds on favourite towards the end of the month. ( though nothing is certain in our NWP world)

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Ok time to post in between yet another spell of bipolar posters that hang on each model run like it were gospel. It really is quite amusing at times. Lets look at this from a scientific point of view . 101 of based fluid dynamics the more variables entered into an equation increased and often vast scatter is the outcome. This increases exponentially, if our initial parameters vary even slightly very prevalent in thermodynamic profiling . Fluid dynamic calculus algorithms lie on the forefront of our computing power, and therefore with dynamic changes currently in the upper air profiles the fluctuations vary widely. 

Look at the latest 2 suites of ensembles ,anyone based in a scientific field would analysis the semantic sampling results and scrape the data due to total entropy . Resulting in near zero correlation beyond 144 hrs. What does that mean? 

Keep calm , the scatter in data clearly indicates anything can happen and as the synoptics needed for cold here required quite a large deviation from the mean but it certainly increases the chances. 

 

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Chillax folks - the EPS is looking very good out to days 7/8/9 (better than this morning's set).

Yes - the op gets the southern arm distribution wrong quite early.  Well we hope it does ...........

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Exactly, the toy throwers should take comfort from that, not dospair. It would be nice to see freezing cold operational after freezing cold operational, but that’s not likely given the “noise”. ECM is just odd towards the end, my expectation is it’s gone from one of its coldest members on the 00z to one of the mildest on its 12z. I really urge people to wait for ensembles to come out before jumping the gun. Also just take a step back have a little think so you can take the emotion out of it which will perhaps allow you to take a more measured approach. That’s what I do anyway. 

GFS operational doesn’t take any other Purb with it on its rollercoaster ride, so it’s not looking that likely imho. 

F31A2096-0D9A-4AAF-85C2-3F73A22F35D9.thumb.gif.b4f5da33e60b7058929b09cbb857f74d.gif 

Ps @tight isobar I see the magic -16 850 has arrived on Q 8)

?..

Keep an eye for that to gain....#ens

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9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Chillax folks - the EPS is looking very good out to days 7/8/9 (better than this morning's set).

That should put everyone at ease that it was a rogue run I know for sure day 10 was just out and beyond.

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58 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well it ant gonna look like this at day 10 from the 00z . Shocking output tonight ?. 

IMG_1456.PNG

New I shouldn't off posted this , must think before posting ?. I new it was gonna be an outlier on the eps ?(Must try harder) . Let's hope we get back to these chars tomorrow ??. 

IMG_1456.PNG

IMG_1440.PNG

IMG_1441.PNG

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9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Here’s what we are up against. 12z ens.

C016379C-3728-4534-B6F7-2C67DB1500B9.thumb.png.6b62df65bfdf90050f48068f6d3c9260.png

25th Feb. The op goes from the warmest member to the coldest member in the space of a little over 24 hours.

Scatter city.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, I am not a meteorologist, but I am scientifically-trained and have read plenty of peer-reviewed papers in respected journals, so am used to assessing charts fairly rapidly.  This quite clearly demonstrates that there is a huge degree of uncertainty - I'd love to see error bars for each individusl run and ensemble member!  What I'm saying is that drawing any inferences or conclusions from that output beyond the 18th is pointless. 

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34 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

GFS operational doesn’t take any other Purb with it on its rollercoaster ride, so it’s not looking that likely imho. 

F31A2096-0D9A-4AAF-85C2-3F73A22F35D9.thumb.gif.b4f5da33e60b7058929b09cbb857f74d.gif 

 

Indeed - this is another thing that jumps out at me as I check thse outputs.  Given that, as you say, the op. run is unsupported by the control or few if any ensemble members, confidence in the evolution it shows is very low.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is chalk and cheese compared to the earlier operational and actually the mean looks even better than last night!..as far as I'm concerned it's very much game on for a much colder spell by the end of next week onwards..:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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The ensembles indicate a cold possibly Easterly flow from the 20th/21st if you cannot see that you are in denial:D. Look at the mean 

 

Diagramme GEFS

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

The main spread is after the 25th.

Edited by winterof79
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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

The ensembles indicate a cold possibly Easterly flow from the 20th/21st if you cannot see that you are in denial:D. Look at the mean 

 

Diagramme GEFS

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

The main spread is after the 25th.

They actually show several different plausible evolutions, and the spread (and therefore uncertainty) is from the 18th/19th onwards.  By the 22nd, we have a spread of 850hPa temperatures from -11C to +5C, or 16C total.  As of the 25th, the spread is -13C to +3C, or 16C.

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34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have the high a bit further south than this morning

ukm2.2018022012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.74b71c1be645197967e8c5cc0434b777.png

 

The interesting bit is east of the UK (what we can't see).  I think this is not bad chart at all with the trigger low possibly in play just to the east.

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