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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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OK, we're all in agreement that ECM is number 1 right!?

Well I didn't see that coming and you would have to think it's a cold outlier from 120/144?  As Steve M says, whilst it's great to see the other models aren't going the same way for now.  We really are getting to the point of no return and I think tonight's runs will converge on the final outcome, I don't see a middle ground as possible on this occasion. 

One last look at the uppers for the 25th.

ECU0-216.GIF?16-12 ECM1-216.GIF?16-12

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Oh dear oh dear, how the ICON has fallen.

ICON - No

GFS - No

UKMO - No

ECM - Yes

When will it end? This is more up and down than Elon Musks rockets. Good EPS overnight again but the other models have backed away, I suspect they'll all climb aboard again later just to really mess with us.

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2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could it be that there was a data problem on the meto model given the late ecm having a late data issue? Maybe the data wasn't put in the other models in time and just let it run?

No corruption of data it’s really not much off ECM 12Z this is a potential scenario and the chance of it isn’t slim either clearly Exeter know more than us, we won’t have agreement till Sunday at earliest.

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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could it be that there was a data problem on the meto model given the late ecm having a late data issue? Maybe the data wasn't put in the other models in time and just let it run?

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

Quite so S4L .  Must admit I,ve come over all February 78ish all of a sudden. 

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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Somebody posted earlier there was apparently an issue with the observation data. Intriguing.

I don't think anybody minds waiting an hour for what I can only assume was a more accurate run as a result of the issue being resolved. Especially when it turns out like that!

‘Issues of the data’ subsequently the run was delayed therefore it’s been fixed ECM can’t afford to put out unreliable data this is why once in blue moon delay has happened. Treat it like no other, 

E65A9357-E8BC-4159-8FCF-1710EDE0528E.thumb.jpeg.9ca8a4137706cc9ac8857e0f9355abd4.jpeg

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Just putting this out there. ECM is an acronym for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For the period we're looking at for this easterly would that not make the ECM the 'expert'? 

Possible straw clutching and well aware this is a unique situation but even so. I guess we'll know soon enough. 

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I think we can safely call the Ecm 00z an upgrade compared to yesterday's 00z which ended very mild!!:D..what a run, like one of those old classics from the archives..would dearly love this to be right but also for it to continue well into march!!:shok::cold::cold-emoji::D❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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My 2p...

It is by no means set in stone and the Atlantic could well drive through but the Arpege is a short range and a high res model. If that's on board as well as the Ecm (and I'm guessing Mogreps) then the balance is looking *just* in our favour at the moment.

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I'm gobsmacked ?. How can this be happening? I really hope the ecm is right for the sake of this forum and my health . Was the METO on board in the failed 2012 easterly? Look at these beautiful chars ?

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Very good consistency between the Arpege and ECM at 96 - yet another straw to clutch at!

ECM ECH1-96.GIF?16-12 Arpege arpegenh-0-96.png?0

That said, and for balance, the Arpege is very different from it's own 12z last night

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5 minutes ago, snowking said:

"Data issues" you say.....a clear sign that @nick sussex is running dangerously short of netweather branded prozac and has had to bust his way into the control room at Reading to deploy his last resort - some custom data.

He even did a great job of trying to make it look realistic by drawing the -6c 850mb line right across the M4 at T+240:

ECM0-240.GIF?16-12

For those saying they can't remember the last time the models were this volatile at such a short lead time, I can sadly - December 2012. Though in fairness then, the models did, one by one, drop the idea completely rather than flip-flopping from run to run.

By the way that op run, whilst looking impressive, at face value isn't all that snowy until that potential undercut right out at 240...but let's get some sort of agreement on pattern first before we look at anything like that

:D   Very funny! I almost lost it this morning when I saw the GFS and UKMO!

Looking at some of the differences , the ECM phases the small Atlantic low with the trough to the nw which stops some of  the forward momentum of energy between T96 and T120hrs.

I’m out most of the day which means I’m spared further drama until this evening!

 

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Apropos of nothing, that op gives T2 of 1c and Dp of -8c in a stiff easterly at T156 in my neck of the woods. That’s got to be a two t shirt job? 

And a foot of snow for East Anglia and 8” across most parts. (ECM 06z) until we have cross model agreement though it’s all pie / snow in the sky ....

 

7BF7714A-49F2-4FBC-930F-BEC858E15A16.png

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