Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[bluearmy]

Ecm consistent to day 5. That’s good enough for the time being.  The remainder of the run just for trends on the atantic trough, given the lack of general intra run consistency. We know the scandi ridge wants to establish and it’s the strength and orientation of the Atlantic trough which will dictate how soon and how strong any easterly flow is.

EDIT: still too much headed ne by day 6. Forces the ridge to sink a little. assuming the models In general have too much headed ne, we could see corrections that actually  upgrade  !!

Edited February 16, 2018 by bluearmy

[Matty M]

The intra model differences are just ludicrous.... I mean I don't think I have seen the likes since that phantome easterly around 6 or 7 years ago?

[Duane S.]

Take that?

 

Not all all surprised. Matches the 150mb ridging propensity I posted earlier from this morning's Berlin charts.

Edited February 16, 2018 by s4lancia

[Ice Day]

Then at 144 

  

This is just unbelievable.  I have NEVER seen this much volatility at days 4/5.  

[andymusic]

ECM - 144 mega chart - nothing wrong with that

Edited February 16, 2018 by andymusic

[snowice]

EC 144 - 8uppers going West! 

[mulzy]

ECM rock solid out to day 6.  -10 850s widely over the UK by then!

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Then at 144 

  

This is just unbelievable.  I have NEVER seen this much volatility at days 4/5.  

means something's up and big changes are about to kick off surely - the cold is about to arrive

[The Eagle]

216

[Ice Day]

OMG it keeps on gettiing better

168  192 

Massive cold pool moving west 

And then ladies and gentlemen, I give you the 216. THE chart of the season

  

[That ECM]

12 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Just for once in a lifetime be correct....

@That ECM

@Steve Murr keeping the dream alive.

[winterof79]

Bloody heck.....nurse

[seabreeze86]

Wow the ECMs missing data sure was worth waiting for a epic run this

Edited February 16, 2018 by seabreeze86

[SMU]

Morning All

The ECM is amazing - The UKMO is dreadful- what do you pick?

What a dilema, - I think in all honesty the models have beaten us here... No point in really making a forecast - both models could be correct as both are plausable outcomes...

Could there be a middle ground ? not sure about that-

-14c at 216 -Todays run becomes the new 'That ECM'

@That ECM

Edited February 16, 2018 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

???? at ‘that ecm 2018’! 

note the reorientation of the Atlantic jet se and what happens !!

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Take that?

 

Not all all surprised. Matches the 150mb ridging propensity I posted earlier.

 

Just now, That ECM said:

@Steve Murr keeping the dream alive.

-12 uppers

[Duane S.]

Just now, The Eagle said:

216

Good. Grief.

What a stupid bonkers hobby this really is

This was coming (OK, I didn't expect quite that good) from the +72 chart.

[Ravelin]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Then at 144 

  

This is just unbelievable.  I have NEVER seen this much volatility at days 4/5.  

I was going to pull you up on this, but then I realised that you were talking about the models and not the mood in this thread. 

Onwards and upwards, not a lot wrong with this, except maybe being totally different to most of the other models... 

[Rayth]

A mere 45 mins ago posters were giving winter the last rights

then ecm bursts in the room with a defibillator 

[Nick F]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Conspiracy theories nick?

Don’t see it.  Anyway, argege being the highest res output available thus far is interesting and ukmo T84 fax has corrected the front back several hundred miles west. The modelling in general within day 6 seems to be sniffing a surprise undercut of the Atlantic trough.  A sort of giant slider which would probably only be feasible given the ssw after effects. let’s see where ecm takes up by day 5. Little point in over analysis past that timescale.

My comment was tongue-in-cheek, before anyone thinks I was being serious 

Anyway, the differences between 00z GFS and EC at t+144 are truly phenomenal. Clearly some issues with the amplitude of the jet over the N Atlantic, and quite clearly the cold pooling/troughing over Europe, look at GFS ridge into western Europe! But also the GFS trying to phase the Canadian and Russian trop vortices to the north.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Nick F

[Johnp]

I can't get excited by that, considering we've seen virtually the entire ens suite flip mild on GFS. 

Surely ECM is just trolling us here?!

[winterof79]

Marginal snow event perhaps snow to rain

Edited February 16, 2018 by winterof79

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Raythan said:

A mere 45 mins ago posters were giving winter the last rights

then ecm bursts in the room with a defibillator 

Borrowed time 

Edited February 16, 2018 by The Eagle

[Daniel*]

If models have so called flip, they can flip in the other direction too the UKMO only a short time ago showed easterlies same point as ECM dismal performance from it, GFS is no better.

EC has found its composure and fits best with Exeter from what I can see this morning.. 

[terrier]

Well the ecm looks great this morning. But it does seem at odds with the ukmo. And has it’s been said many times this week the ecm has been woeful this winter. Just because it’s now showing what many want to see it’s great again. You couldn’t make it up.