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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
16 minutes ago, snowice said:

ECM is not out? It's very late today no sign of ooz. 

I wonder if these data issues affect the other models, given the woeful output, though perhaps wishful thinking. Given the chopping and changing recently, wouldn’t take models literally past day 5 atm for reasons well documented re strat-trop coupling.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I wonder if these data issues affect the other models, given the woeful output, though perhaps wishful thinking. Given the chopping and changing recently, wouldn’t take models literally past day 5 atm for reasons well documented re strat-trop coupling.

Completely agreed there nick, it's interesting that it says all 0z suits, it either means, all of them, gfs, UKMO, ecm etc etc or talking about the ecm coming out on all the different platforms it's uses, meteociel, weather online, netweather etc etc. Anyone able to email them to clear it up possibly?

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Never  seen the models,  model  so poorly! How you predict a forecast five days out at present is beyond me! 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:
 

I wonder if these data issues affect the other models, given the woeful output, though perhaps wishful thinking. Given the chopping and changing recently, wouldn’t take models literally past day 5 atm for reasons well documented re strat-trop coupling.

Conspiracy theories nick?

Don’t see it.  Anyway, argege being the highest res output available thus far is interesting and ukmo T84 fax has corrected the front back several hundred miles west. The modelling in general within day 6 seems to be sniffing a surprise undercut of the Atlantic trough.  A sort of giant slider which would probably only be feasible given the ssw after effects. let’s see where ecm takes up by day 5. Little point in over analysis past that timescale.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
26 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC delayed by approx 1hr due to tech issues.

 

Apparently issue with observation data.

nah, it's Netweather members with sledge hammers beating the c**p out of the server :-D

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Conspiracy theories nick?

Don’t see it.  Anyway, argege being the highest res output available thus far is interesting and ukmo T84 fax has corrected the front back several hundred miles west. The modelling in general within day 6 seems to be sniffing a surprise undercut of the Atlantic trough.  A sort of giant slider which would probably only be feasible given the ssw after effects. let’s see where ecm takes up by day 5. Little point in over analysis past that timescale.

Hi res hopefully showing the way

Screenshot_20180216-070448.png

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
37 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I think this pretty much explains where we are this morning and why there is a last minute delay to the easterlies..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43080073

If that was this morning I’d feel Okish but it’s last nights and the curve ball thrown this morning is still on the curve, I expect a change unless all the data issues relate to poor charts we have seen 

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

The difference at 72 hours compared to the other models is really quite stark - not in absolute terms - but it makes a massive difference to medium term prospects.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Steady.

Screenshot_20180216-071413.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Yikes, here we go again.  ECM builds on yesterday's 0z and the cold is getting in at 120

96  ECH1-96.GIF?16-12 ECH0-96.GIF?16-12

120 ECH1-120.GIF?16-12 ECH0-120.GIF?16-12

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, Matty M said:

Just jumped out on Meteociel now

 

ECM1-120.GIF?16-12

Here comes the Easterly! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

So we have most models fairly dry and not particularly cold at day 5. Then we have the ECM showing an ene wind with the -8c isotherm already across the SE with colder air sitting just to our east.

What drama at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Have it.Following METO thoughts.

Screenshot_20180216-071655.png

Edited by winterof79
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