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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    One thing I have learned, IF the ukmo and gfs have called this correct, both churning out run of the mill mildish dross, then the ENS are indeed absolutely useless and a waste of time. The ops have been trending less cold and removing HLB influence for the last couple of days, at times being outliers, yet the ensembles are only now backing off the easterly idea and reducing in number. Surely there has to be a big climb down by the met today ? 

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    It's over really.

    gens-21-1-144.png

    A cracking illustration to back my post above....useless tool! (Not you mate :D )

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Looking at GFS ensembles only around 20% resemble anything like the MetO forecast for later next week while around 30% are Westerly based but if one goes further out in the ensembles they do have a tendency to rebuild blocking by end of Feb.

    Still one or two tasty runs in there among the dross too for the optimistic.

    gensnh-6-1-324.pnggensnh-16-1-264.png

    short ensembles overall though show pretty much the opposite of MetO forecast

    graphe3_1000_271_100___.gif

     

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Daniel said:

    CMA. There is still a fair few showing easterly winds but only issue is that they aren't the best models .

    Screenshot_20180216-053233.png

    CMA showing -12 uppers on our door step 

    Screenshot_20180216-053454.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
    12 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Epic climb down from ens 

     

    MT8_London_ens-15.png

    It's laughable really, the times we've seen them go cold for day's this winter, just to completely flip to a milder solution in one suite.

     

    The models have been poor to say the least this winter, regarding showing cold for days only to downgrade within a blink of an eye.

    Edited by Bobby93
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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    Once again blocking has been downgraded as we get below 144hrs, ever since March 2013 same old story,despite sometimes very favourable background signals, Atlantic to our west just keeps taking charge, it must be something to do with SST in AMO region or some post anthropogenic influence, persistant -NAO in summer and +NAO in winter, I am not convinced anymore when I see those nice NCAR reanalysis for MJO and ENSO phases with blocking that include winters from over 30 years ago as since atmosphere has changed and were are seing  some very persistent patterns taking hold that drive our seasonal weather patterns,after another winter NAO debacle I no longer trust any historical background signals as they are not calibrated for climate change effects or persistent circulations   in resent winters,more study has to be conducted to understand why this is happening

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    If the ECM follows the GFS , surely you’d expect a very differently worded NETO long range at lunchtime - big One coming up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    If the ECM follows the GFS , surely you’d expect a very differently worded NETO long range at lunchtime - big One coming up. 

    Yes, I would expect the option to be added to the wording at the very least.

    ECM 00z will be interesting but not crucial. There is still time for another 'flip' by the models. New data getting added all the time.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    Don’t even know what to say 43AD7EFD-7715-4ACC-B5A9-61D0C88B9152.thumb.jpeg.57ae1baf27ea4c58d7ddc0021fb26373.jpeg

     

    theres definitely another ‘ FLIP’ coming this morning ,

    it will be when @nick sussex wakes up and flips out 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    ECM Op slow this morning. This morning's Berlin EC charts at the top of the trop show a willingness to ridge ahead of the vortex, encouraging at least...

     

    ecmwf150f72.thumb.gif.0970c3d58c5573f51dd435add83450ac.gifecmwf150f96.thumb.gif.81958ffe78aea2d701510f9af4c02b68.gif

    ecmwf150f120.thumb.gif.3cdbb67ed93568aa43979745ac534b22.gifecmwf150f144.thumb.gif.b3da907540b49878ea6111f2c795595c.gif

    ecmwf150f168.thumb.gif.e7b908a206505edb7c2277aefb384240.gifecmwf150f192.thumb.gif.eecdefa6adcdb19ce07bc779c0ba9936.gif

    ecmwf150f216.thumb.gif.e5ce290451903dcc25fdb7a2b934c515.gifecmwf150f240.thumb.gif.f312a7433a95afce4e2cc6c24b054c73.gif

     

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

    Please don't delete mods as I'm relating my message to the models.... what they are showing.

     

    Live BBC weather at 06:17 Just said milder this weekend but don't get used to it as there are hints of much Colder weather next week..???

     

    If they have the latest data and it's a live up to date forcast why would it still be different to what the MODELS are showing...and to me they are all showing milder weather..  Just don't understand it...

     

    Thanks.. ?

    Edited by TheBeastFromTheEAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    2 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

    Please don't delete mods as I'm relating my message to the models.... what they are showing.

     

    Live BBC weather at 06:17 Just said milder this weekend but don't get used to it as there are hints of much Colder weather next week..???

     

    If they have the latest data and it's a live up to date forcast why would it still be different to what the MODELS are showing...and to me they are all showing milder weather..  Just don't understand it...

     

    Thanks.. ?

    I think this pretty much explains where we are this morning and why there is a last minute delay to the easterlies..

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43080073

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Pretty laughable really.

    EBB5E356-ECE2-4E1A-B85F-2F2D1A8EE8A8.thumb.png.f7f68d65bb4c6fbd94350aabe03a8010.png

    Blocked scenarios all vanishing, and you’d look at this 192 hour chart and not even know there’d been a SSW, as there isn’t any blocking anywhere! Just a bog standard winter chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    ECM is not out? It's very late today no sign of ooz. 

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    meto still going for it in their update this morning

    Very strange when even their own model says no

     

    I would think the mogreps model which is thye other one they use  must still have a very strong signal for cold easterly winds  and they are using that to base their forecast on this morning

    gfs complete garbage then if its true ,might as well not use the model for anything other than Atlantic driven weather,if its this far out same for ukmo model,still no ecm run yet to compare

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    To be fair to the Met, models are flipping from run to run, so they probably won’t change their forecast until they see more consistency.

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    46 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

    It's laughable really, the times we've seen them go cold for day's this winter, just to completely flip to a milder solution in one suite.

     

    The models have been poor to say the least this winter, regarding showing cold for days only to downgrade within a blink of an eye.

    Not sure there has been a complete flip for this one? For days they have been flipping from run to run and the ens have been scattered, its just been our hope that they would firm up on a cold solution. Must admit though a couple of days ago i thought the worst outcome would be for HP over us and not whats showing this morning.

    Edited by Nicholas B
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Huge flip no way back from this I’d say, quite incredible 

    All the money invested and there still isn’t anything clever enough to read the weather beyond 96hours . 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    3 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

    Not sure there has been a complete flip for this one? For days they have been flipping from run to run and the ens have been scattered, its just been our hope that they would firm up on a cold solution. Must admit though a couple of days ago i thought the worst outcome would be for HP over us and not whats showing this morning.

    No there has been a flip 

    The Ops have juggled but the ens have been fairly bullish of cold not this morning 

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The JMA and the Aperge still looking good this morning overwise it's a bit of a horror show.

    Still a chance I feel but time is running out for this easterly,  the MetO mogreps model must be showing a easterly or they wouldn't be so bullish in there updates. ECM starting to come out now 

    Screenshot_20180216-064738.png

    Screenshot_20180216-064759.png

    Edited by seabreeze86
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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