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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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To use that boxing analogy.

The SSW put the PV on the canvas , it was about to give up the ghost but then another strat warming appeared and insulted the PVs mother.

The PV flies into a rage and uses its last vestige of energy  to get up and take a few more swings.

It lands a few blows but eventually its coach throws in the towel at which point ma PV comes to comfort her son and take him away for a holiday as in it leaves Greenland! 

Edited by nick sussex
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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

To use that boxing analogy.

The SSW put the PV on the canvas , it was about to give up the ghost but then another strat warming appeared and insulted the PVs mother.

The PV flies into a rage and uses its last vestige of energy  to get up and take a few more swings.

It lands a few blows but eventually its coach throws in the towel at which point ma PV comes to comfort her son and take him way for a holiday as in it leaves Greenland! 

Lol ? let's hope the morning runs carry on this good trend. 

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A wintry end to winter and a very wintry start to the meteorological spring from the Gfs 18z...worth staying up for to see that happy ending!!:D:air_kiss:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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18z GFS gets there but my word is that a convoluted evolution, I'd be surprised if we could get through that many hurdles...if we did then that would probably be a near record breaker for March in terms of strength of that easterly.

Worth noting, the ECM ensembles are still all over the place later on..BUT there is one trend emerging, a BIG COLD shot into eastern Europe(-20C and below). IF synoptics go our way, any easterly will be of the epic type. One ECM ensemble member goes down to -18C in London at 850hpa.

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know this is right at the end of the 18z but this is impressive and not often seen in the output . -15 850s knocking on the door ? ?

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Hopefully we will get the cold in sooner but what a great finish to the 18z..like so many GEFS runs recently, hoping for many more and heading into high res soon!:)

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Maybe this has been discussed on this forum before, I don't know. But I was pondering about the role of shortwaves in the models in situations of large-scale stratospheric changes like the SSW we have at this moment. In my meteorology-classes I have learned that this kind of changes generally are dominated and driven by longwave activity/movement and that shortwaves are a consequence of those large-scale movements. 

The essence of my "pondering": could it be that the high-res parts of the NWP models (specifically the OP's) in these situations inherently over-estimate the effect of short-waves and could lead to short-term fluctuations? I think that is what we are watching continiously!

As a consequence you could say that in these situations relatively low-res (ensembles, means and low-res models) is essentially better because it keeps focus on the large-scale development?

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

That would surely blow existing March temperature minimum records out of the water?

It would definitely give it a good go . Here are the max and min temps . Would off though it could be a few degrees lower ? ?

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Edited by ICE COLD
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Well, at least the 12z EC op wasn't at the cold end of the spread, hugs the mean right through

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Well, at least the 12z EC op wasn't at the cold end of the spread, hugs the mean right through

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

And the milder members have reduced in number rather than grown, phew ? 

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - The 12z did start it ;) but the 18z has continued it- it just shows how bad the GFS is at resolving energy when its still making largish errors @96...

Its all been said yesterday etc & today, I think it was just the flip from the UKMO that roughed me up earlier - but every model has an occasional blip!

Counting down my return from hols -T216 !! 

LOL, in reality the cold run of this morning was UKMO's blip, not the other way around, just as 12z ECM is its cold blip (2nd time in 10 runs it has shown cold getting over the UK from the East)

As you point out the only model to show any real consistency has been Icon but why you single out GFS - if anything ECM has been even worse.

I can't remember the last time any of the big 3 had any run to run consistency in fact.

Also people saying the ensembles have been solidly behind a cold spell, well that isn't quite true. They have had a cold signal that has waxed and waned but also plenty of scatter.

The mean never got below 5/6C for the SE for earlier sets.

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But big improvement from ECM tonight while GFS goes the opposite way - in keeping with the model turmoil.

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It is sometimes good to reflect upon where we were and how we got here because the actual evolution gets lost in the run to run mayhem.

Last weekend the morning runs showed little amplification or inclination toward blocking and all but erased the Atlantic ridge programmed for around the 18th.

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Back before then the cold runs had shown a strong Atlantic ridge  modelled, with fairly quick transition to Greenland high - the modelling of that ridge has been an  issue ever since and it has been killed off and resurrected more times than Jason in the Friday 13th movies.

That ridge is now much flatter and further East than those exciting runs had us believe it would be but still strong enough to hold up the Atlantic long enough for a second bite of the cherry.

 

So all in all things still finely balanced on the evidence we have but clearly latest MetO forecast is in line with Icon or JMA or with the ECM. I say or and not and because all three of those showing an early Easterly influence are quite different.

(ICON is a 1st class ticket aboard the Siberian Express, while ECM is stowing away with cattle aboard a Moscow freight train)

That can be seen as a bad thing in that there is no consistent signal or a good thing in that there are several ways to get to get worthwhile blocking.

If we have faith in the extra data available and knowledge available to the MEtO then we can expect tomorrow to finally begin to give some clarity.

I think that clarity will please cold fans.

It is at last time to get aboard the cold train folks - let's hope we have the first class ticket of ICON.

 

Edited by Mucka
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10 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Impressive and exciting charts no doubt. But very much FI.   Some of the charts shown are two weeks away!!!!!!!.     

It depends on how you look at it ECM / JMA / ICON have easterlies starting at day four. The deep cold is likely to appear towards the end of Feb into early March it’s not really very much FI at all. 

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7 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

So did it or didn't it. don't leave us in suspense

It's not fully out yet so can't say for sure but certainly looking the same as yestadays runs so looking good! *screen shot below is for 102 ahours.

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Edited by Daniel
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