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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    ECM monthlies anyone? 

    The fact that it was run from the morning run, errrrm, let's just forget it shall we lol ? 

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

    Easterly commencing by the end of next week seems the inevitable outcome, despite the models recent games. Looking forward to some seriously cold weather.  And hopefully with a little luck the easterly will now be gradually brought forward too !

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ^ All part of the rollercoaster ride with upgrades and downgrades,always has been and always will be,which makes it fastinating model watching,the models know we are all watching

    will the final thrill be a waterlog ride at alton towers or a snowy cascade at flamingo land

    i do like both rides:D

    it will be crunchtime tomorrow i would feel in regards to this trough dropping down the east side of the uk to amplify this ridge north,that is the quick cold scenario,or we may have to sit it out a bit and see what unfolds thereafter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    just a thought...

    while everyone is praising/tearing apart the various models over their performance, bear in mind that they operate on the collective physical data that is fed into them. this is collected from weather balloons, satellites, ships, buoys, aircraft, etc etc... 

    its quite possible that during an event such as an SSW, this data will change very quickly over short periods of time, therefore some data could be outdated even before its fed into the computer. if they are trying to assimilate data which is changing rapidly in unusually dynamic atmospheric conditions, it might explain why there is so little coherence in the model output.

    Does balloon data etc acount for SSW's?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    So after a traumatic early start to the evening the models are now edging towards a colder solution.

    I don’t think it’s being melodramatic to say this last few days has seen some of the most abysmal NWP performance since we’ve had access to these on the net .

    Truly shocking continuity and such wild swings that what we normally think of more reliable time frames has been shredded to now having little confidence in outputs  at T120hrs hrs even less given the UKMO switch from its morning output .

    Anyway at least the evening ends on a more positive note for coldies .

    We await the morning runs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 18z shows sun / mon in particular being proper mild days further south at 11/13c before cooling down for tues / wed / thurs / fri with night frosts followed by a mild saturday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    Does balloon data etc acount for SSW's?

    i would think its all just raw data and atmospheric condition readings. pressure, temperature, wind speeds etc but the point is, if these are changing faster than usual, then no matter how fast the processor speed of these computers, that data still has to get to them whilst its still valid. i would imagine that collecting all that data right now is pretty chaotic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport
    6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Does balloon data etc acount for SSW's?

     

    Just now, bobbydog said:

    i would think its all just raw data and atmospheric condition readings. pressure, temperature, wind speeds etc but the point is, if these are changing faster than usual, then no matter how fast the processor speed of these computers, that data still has to get to them whilst its still valid. i would imagine that collecting all that data right now is pretty chaotic.

    My sentiments exactly. I think this is going to be a case of suck it and see with models chopping and changing every run

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Not once has the Atlantic broke through on this run so far

    the block is holding strong

    night.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I’m beginning to think it’s the second strat warming that’s causing these NWP issues not the initial SSW.

    We already have the zonal reversal but it could be the second warming which is effecting the behaviour of the PV and how much energy spills east .

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    16 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    just a thought...

    while everyone is praising/tearing apart the various models over their performance, bear in mind that they operate on the collective physical data that is fed into them. this is collected from weather balloons, satellites, ships, buoys, aircraft, etc etc... 

    its quite possible that during an event such as an SSW, this data will change very quickly over short periods of time, therefore some data could be outdated even before its fed into the computer. if they are trying to assimilate data which is changing rapidly in unusually dynamic atmospheric conditions, it might explain why there is so little coherence in the model output.

    the reason why people are praising/tearing apart the various models is that the models, like us, are sentient beings kept in cages at the various meteorlogical centres, they have feelings and failings just like us......surprised you didn't know that BD? :whistling::80:

    well first it was the GFS showing raging easterlies and we were all hoping and praying the ECM would play catch up, smell the coffee and other well over used netweather cliches etc etc and now it's role reversal with us plebs willing the GFS to move back towards the ECM, coffee smelling, etc etc.....the model suites have gained sentience, and what is worse, they've developed a sense of humour....lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, ajpoolshark said:

    the reason why people are praising/tearing apart the various models is that the models, like us, are sentient beings kept in cages at the various meteorlogical centres, they have feelings and failings just like us......surprised you didn't know that BD? :whistling::80:

    well first it was the GFS showing raging easterlies and we were all hoping and praying the ECM would play catch up, smell the coffee and other well over used netweather cliches etc etc and now it's role reversal with us plebs willing the GFS to move back towards the ECM, coffee smelling, etc etc.....the model suites have gained sentience, and what is worse, they've developed a sense of humour....lol

    you forgot the tails they have grown which they tuck between their legs (which they have also grown) when they sheepishly conform to the winning models which have won several days before they verify.... :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    I think I need a lie down

    Just imagine...

    gfseu-0-360_wdd0.png

    Im sure the experts might be able to shed more light on this but ever since the SWW the eye candy charts looks different? They seem more muddled and unclear...but with the same end goal. Like the chart above, just look at the random pressure gradients everywhere? Is it a sign of the not actually knowing the specifics but know roughly where 'things' will be?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This was worth waiting for!..the Gfs 18z brings in a snowy Easterly!!:D:cold:

    18_336_mslp850.png

    18_336_preciptype.png

    18_336_uk2mtmp.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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