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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Very happy with 18z so far steps in the right direction to not only a perhaps colder outlook but one with less stress from all the flip flopping. 

12z gfs-0-90.png?12 18zgfs-0-84.png?18 

 

Suddenly there is a trough over the netherlands and heights are much higher.

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Look at the heights split at the pole!!! WOW what a turn around. Guys we now know it's only at T-72 that models can model the correct solution of energy from the SSW. It's going to be like this for every day of this next two weeks so let's all promise not to look any further than that?

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This is what happens folks every single time with these easterlies I find in short term we see things fall into place it’s  not certain yet but odds have increased tonight. GFS makes a decisive move to ICON / ECM.

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I don't think the GFS is going to lead to an impressive Easterly because there's too much energy in the Northern arm still. But! We've finally got the trigger shortwave moving Southwards, the chances of this suddenly vanishing now are slim.

GFS.thumb.png.8de54e1dda38cfdd32a67ce030cf0f91.png

Thanks to that shortwave, winds have done a 180 from Westerly to Easterly at the same timeframe, just 102hrs out. I've been banging on about the importance of that shortwave and that's why. Can't say I was expecting this turn around, you.

ICON. I salute you, covered itself in absolute glory.

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Well maybe I need to eat some humble pie.... :rofl:

Looks like the high to our north-east may have more fight in it after all, whether we get the cold to our east in remains to be seen but the GFS is definitely leaning towards a less progressive scenario.

EDIT: the polar vortex still needs to be much weaker to get some real cold heading towards our direction or we need a stronger Scandi high still...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Just to further add to the above.

12z

12z.thumb.png.40963fdb5dc20ad1df2a8fc94e34d507.png

18z

18z.thumb.png.832d57e75ebaba9c0b6cce571adc80fe.png

For those who want to learn, flick back and forth between the two, the 12z has no shortwave to the East and the pattern is flat, the 18z does have the short wave and as a result, we see isobars tracking East (Easterly winds) and a more amplified area of high pressure.

Massive step in the right direction. 

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The cold air a couple of hundred miles nearer the east coast at just 102......if this is a trend then we really could be in business!  

12z  gfsnh-1-108.png?12 18z gfsnh-1-102.png?18

Edit - I think that's as good as this run will get but clearly we are very much back in the game.  FI is 72, anything after is just conjecture (except the ICON which is a legend!)

Edited by Ice Day
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The ssb..not ssw has done her job!!

Sudden strat 'burning'.has put a rocket up the ars# of the trop -pv wanted..

And dissplacement is noted now via raw datas..18z pushing the bar higher, and with pacific waa its just sit and await the melt....

Winter is finaly coming to uk shores.

Siberian lobeing..will soon become both vampire-in upper cold syphon...

And feed the unfed-starved uk ..north west euro place pots!!!!

gfsnh-0-102.png

gfsnh-10-102.png

Screenshot_2018-02-15-22-02-21.png

Edited by tight isobar
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When GFS switched to taking that low down through Europe my words of reaction were positive and yet unrepeatable in this environment :p

Sure is a lot more height rise going on through Scandi from the Arctic too.

Getting a sense that the models are trying to deal with the idea of the polar vortex having a lot of very cold air wrapped up in it and yet not being able to just blast away blocking highs and spread its wings.

A very cold yet very contained vortex is a sight to behold and means some very rough weather across the Arctic itself. No explorers or researchers venturing across there next week I hope?

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If the 18z was just a 100-200 miles further North it'd be identical to the ICON so very fine margins. I am 100% confident we will see the overnight runs continue to upgrade the potential, we're on the home stretch.

Expect models to still be all over the place re: detail/longitivtiy etc but the shortwave dropping South was the first hurdle, and I think.. we've made it past that now. Overnight runs will confirm.

P.S. Don't take the output from here on in seriously, the GFS has likely already gone wrong with the high placement.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

If the 18z was just a 100-200 miles further North it'd be identical to the ICON so very fine margins. I am 100% confident we will see the overnight runs continue to upgrade the potential, we're on the home stretch.

Expect models to still be all over the place re: detail/longitivtiy etc but the shortwave dropping South was the first hurdle, and I think.. we've made it past that now. Overnight runs will confirm.

Yes - The 12z did start it ;) but the 18z has continued it- it just shows how bad the GFS is at resolving energy when its still making largish errors @96...

Its all been said yesterday etc & today, I think it was just the flip from the UKMO that roughed me up earlier - but every model has an occasional blip!

Counting down my return from hols -T216 !! 

Edited by Steve Murr
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not a time for the GFS computer to freeze! Someone give it a kick 

Kicked:D

frying pan retreived and came off worse:vava:

well what can i say,it's iconic,i mean ironic(no pun) that the ICON model has been steadfast for the last few days where as the other models including the ukmo have been all over the shop,i still do not know which one will be right but a step in the right direction tonight after a wrist slashing sesh through the day

which one will come out smelling of roses after a lock in overnight

we will find out tomorrow.....always tomorrow:whistling:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

If the 18z was just a 100-200 miles further North it'd be identical to the ICON so very fine margins. I am 100% confident we will see the overnight runs continue to upgrade the potential, we're on the home stretch.

Expect models to still be all over the place re: detail/longitivtiy etc but the shortwave dropping South was the first hurdle, and I think.. we've made it past that now. Overnight runs will confirm.

The part in bold is key, any upgrades tomorrow will be in the 72-100 hour time-frame which should get us over the line. Having watched the models over the years, once they start upgrading it's not unusual to see three or four Op runs in a row go for better outcomes....can tomorrow be one of those occasions?

 

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After a very busy day with work I'm only just catching up on runs.

at first glance (and probably the last glance before I nod off lol) we are certainly still in the game for the cold easterly, although no clear route re high pressure development/placement.

will look forward to an early morning analysis ofctge 00z runs :) 

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

If the 18z was just a 100-200 miles further North it'd be identical to the ICON so very fine margins. I am 100% confident we will see the overnight runs continue to upgrade the potential, we're on the home stretch.

Expect models to still be all over the place re: detail/longitivtiy etc but the shortwave dropping South was the first hurdle, and I think.. we've made it past that now. Overnight runs will confirm.

P.S. Don't take the output from here on in seriously, the GFS has likely already gone wrong with the high placement.

You completely changed your tune a bit like some of the models. :p

With the likes of ICON and the smaller models it is good to see and should be noticed, but you need the big three to be interested in too or 9/10 you’ll get nothing out of it. ECM has jumped in bed with ICON and GFS has albeit it’s a squeeze! 

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You completely changed your tune a bit like some of the models. :p

With the likes of ICON and the smaller models it is good to see and should be noticed, but you need the big three to be interested in too or 9/10 you’ll get nothing out of it. ECM has jumped in bed with ICON and GFS has albeit it’s a squeeze! 

Yeah, given the UKMO backed away today followed by the GFS 12z still not being interested, it threw me a bit. I really wasn't expecting the two biggest models to be wrong over the smaller ones at that short lead time, clearly it seems I was wrong. Even our resident therapist Nick Sussex lost it slightly!

Assuming this is the right solution now. The ICON/EPS have done astonishingly well re: consistency. The GFS has been an utter and total failure, GEM has been good but wobbled slightly last night/today. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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