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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Debilt T2Ms :o

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I cant see the temperatures things down the side of the graph. Am i right in thinking the mean stays around 0c from 20th onwards on last chart. If so its very impressive and certainly seems theres a decent cluster of easterlies!

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Ok,has too be a quick one from me tonight,our lass is ready with the frying pan,and no not for cooking either:rofl:

The ecm mean has been rock solid the last few days and still is,the op on par now too

EDH1-240.GIF?15-0graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=309&y=142&run=1

and the CPC still on the same page as yesterday too

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

De-built ens dewpoint/wind direction

eps_pluim_td_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png

still looking good:D

OUCH!!!

6p5Oo.gif

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1 minute ago, Snowjokes92 said:

I cant see the temperatures things down the side of the graph. Am i right in thinking the mean stays around 0c from 20th onwards. If so its very impressive and certainly seems theres a decent cluster of easterlies!

mean is about 2c max -

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I have been thinking and reading about each of the models especially the GFS and ECM.

I have seen many mention on here that the ECM has been particularly poor this winter, whether this be the case or not, this has no impact on the current projections from the ECM. If I'm going to be quite honestly I think this is merely a case of all the models performing exceptionally poor given the SSW. Given a record breaking SSW how can any of us expect the models to handle this well when this is data they haven't received before? (If you know what I mean)

For the cold scenario that we all hope for the ICON has been excellent with consistency but I have a lack of knowledge to comment on it's general consistency, however now the ECM is in line with the ICON (and should take the lead in regards to the upcoming pattern) I next expect the GFS to move in line. After some research it seems that the GFS whilst using the ECM initialisation data performed much better than using its own "initialisation" data, you may wonder why this is relevant?

Well I expect as I mentioned already for the GFS to be the next model to now move in line with the ECM as it begins to latch on to the trends that the ECM have picked up on.

Whether this is relevant or not, it's my own personal opinion (& very much an amateur), we'll see what happens! For the time being lets enjoy some very controversial model outputs!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

saved by the indian model!

ncmrwfnh-0-162.thumb.png.8e67931f68a0cba70ef6721bd9b69f0b.png

goodness gracious me!!

Actually, the Indian model is a derivation of the ukmo gm. I do sometimes have a look and it isn’t  as desperate as it might seem.

@TEITS - if we only had ens means and no ops post day 4, this place would be a lot calmer. 

On the one hand I couldn’t believe that ec op dribbling out and yet with the number of clusters on offer plus that persistent shortwave spread, it probably had to come out on an op at some point. I guess the later the better. the control is extremely cold in the extended period and will probably sit with the op cluster later.

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A mystery thus far why the ICON has been so consistent - probably the 18 will go the other way!  But it is a different sort of model, in that it has an icosahedral grid.  Another such model is the FIM, and the 12z for this model also develops an ESE flow  at T 144.

fim-0-144.png?12

This is the most addictive period of model watching since I took up this ridiculous hobby (Dec 2010 was before my time).  I'd like to take this opportunity to thank the knowledgable posters on here for their expertise, humour and stickability.  Go netweather!

 

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3 hours ago, Singularity said:

Unless the models are wrong about these changes, particularly the more progressive tropospheric cold spill into the N. Atlantic from Canada and lack of much Euro trough action, our cold weather prospects are dependent on the secondary warming taking the Canadian vortex down another few rungs while shoving it back west, and the period of potential is located next weekend onward rather than within the preceding working week.

Well I sure am glad I put that caveat in earlier :shok::laugh:

Should have known this would happen; after saying nothing much one way or the other about an outdoor event I'm attending on Thursday, I finally decided to say that cold weather will probably arrive afterward rather than before/on the day. At that moment, ECM became destined to make more of the Euro trough response to the trigger low and also shift the whole pattern west a bit (though this could be linked to the stronger Euro trough; more cold west on more easterly flow, more resistance to Atlantic push).

So in order of how sustainably cold the pattern becomes by Thursday, here's ICON, JMA, ECM and UKMO. Oh okay, I'll include GFS too :p.

  iconeu-0-96.png?15-12 JE96-21.GIF?15-12 ECE1-96.GIF?15-0 UE96-21.GIF?15-18 gfseu-0-96.png?12

Generally pretty similar across the first four. In fact this comparison makes the way UKMO turned out seem rather strange.

GFS is not reading such a strong build of heights to the NE and you can see the different trough angle responsible. Typical GFS bias? We should soon find out, though perhaps not as soon as we usually would given the vast amount of Shannon entropy currently in evidence.

Brace yourselves - it could go either way with the 00z runs tomorrow.

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42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM 12z ens mean (red line) shows a clear downward shift from the 00z

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It also demonstrates that the 00z op. run was at the milder end of the ensemble spread for much of the run, whereas the 12z is closer to the ensemble mean.  Whether this suggests that the 12z is more reliable I have no idea; I'd imagine we'd have to know whether the ensembles are more reliable in these comparatively rare strat wind reversal events than the op. runs, but it does give me the idea that maybe the 00z op was rather milder than you'd expect the actual conditions to be.

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Well the ICON what can you say!

locked and loaded! 

5CE82828-D88F-48FF-9B57-9E98F8417437.thumb.png.983c8dbc2d80612e67bc59ae76a6658d.png5F0C1467-1502-4665-BB8B-CBA55666D1F9.thumb.png.810ae70186b49cafd22d3c3404cc3c9f.png

it does feel like only a matter of time if this theme continues! Deep deep cold just waiting in the wings!

@weirpig I’ve not seen his tweet, I’ll go take a look ? 

Edited by karlos1983
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well the ICON what can you say!

locked and loaded! 

5CE82828-D88F-48FF-9B57-9E98F8417437.thumb.png.983c8dbc2d80612e67bc59ae76a6658d.png5F0C1467-1502-4665-BB8B-CBA55666D1F9.thumb.png.810ae70186b49cafd22d3c3404cc3c9f.png

it does feel like only a matter of time if this theme continues! Deep deep cold just waiting in the wings!

It does. Icon has been steadfast. With fergies tweet aswell things looking rosy 

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