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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Oh my days what a drama on here thiis is getting tense now.

well well well the ECM has finally got there it took time but it has got there. I remember 2 weeks ago when we were looking at a potential easterly the GFS backed off and ECM came aboard and a day later the GFS followed the ECM. Could this happen again I wonder. 

Thd saga goes on 

keep the fans going in here we will be needing all the air we can . 

But I will finish on a caution note let's wait and see what happens from here but still not get overexcited because we know where that leads us if we don't get what we want. 

Keep up the good posts

all the best 

regards ????

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM mean pans out more or less identical to the operational with a better swing to that initial trigger low -

    The only model to come out unscathed so far is the IKON lol...

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    D5 looks good to me

    49CD8690-45E3-4237-A3FD-E0B2AF9B6112.thumb.png.5fa47589d4445a1458e0f528b5c17430.png

    D6

    554FE01A-AE98-4DB8-8663-BBD9DC7EB9D4.thumb.png.a5bfb66b2f2a2894458884a9b68050c8.png

    I admit I’m a little shocked!

    So now the mean from the ECM ENS has us in an Easterly from Russia by Wed - what is going on with these models!! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    I just knew the ECM would deliver tonight.

     

    Watch the 18z follow suite and the morning runs align.

     

    I never thought I'd say this but the icon has been like a rock!!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Early doors on the eps - pretty good support for the operational.  In fact many runs will be colder.  London 850s at day 6: Mean =-5.5C, Control=-8C.

    Yes & a blend of MOGREPS, EPS and GLOSEA. GLOSEA and the 30-day variety of EPS appear to concur,:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    The ICON  was actually the first to pull the plug on the Sandi height rises that were due to deliver cold a couple of weeks ago. I actually quite like it, seems to be doing quite well imo. I remember this because my love for icon updates stopped whilst I got over that fail! We have now rekindled :air_kiss:

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO at t168 looks to be going for a milder setup

    ukm2.2018022212_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2b4c005702cee8579ce88c7074bbfc52.png

    Last  nights 168 was an Easterly can't trust any  output past 120 hr! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO at t168 looks to be going for a milder setup

    ukm2.2018022212_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2b4c005702cee8579ce88c7074bbfc52.png

    And think that had us in south easterly few days back at 168 ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    You couldnt actually make it up could you? Majority models go for a bit of blip and ecm finally churns out mouth watering charts lmao. Definetly giving us all a headache. Ive said it before, but all these swings and roundabouts in winter with good teleconnections, are ususlly the ones that deliver something special. Its the typical way the models work in these scenarios.

    Its the usual run of the mill, all models pick up worse trend, then ecm throws a corker after been so stubborn. Ahead of all the doom and gloom 'winter is over' stuff.Fingers crossed.

    Edited by Snowjokes92
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I think a point may come where we admit we are sailing in darkness. No model seems to know where it's going between T120 and T168 (unless I put my faith in the great ICON?!?!)

    However, I can't forget that the GEFS went for the Scandi High from 24th onwards 26 out of 27 times before the 12Z. If it turns up on the 18Z and 00Z, I'll put the 12Z down as a blip.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There are some excellent Gem 12z ensembles..hopefully pointing the way..i.e..east / northeast with a fantastic very cold block!:D:cold:

    GEMC00EU12_240_2.png

    GEMP05EU12_240_2.png

    GEMP08EU12_240_2.png

    GEMP19EU12_240_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Well.well.well. After all the wrist slashing. The European Cavalry Model rides in to save the day. Pretty much in line with the meto further outlook. I,m with S4L on this though probably the weekend before we get some proper model alignment. wouldn't be at all surprised to see some slight upgrades and a slight quickening of the pattern either. 

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    CFS daily also with ICON et al 

    Matron check this evolution out

    tempresultojd9_mini.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley
    23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM mean pans out more or less identical to the operational with a better swing to that initial trigger low -

    The only model to come out unscathed so far is the IKON lol...

    Don't forget the JMA. If anything I'd say its been even more consistent with the trigger low than the ICON; no wonder the Met Office are on board! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Well.well.well. After all the wrist slashing. 

    I know a fair few use this term with harmless intent but does anyone else find it a bit inappropriate?

     

    Maybe it's just me. Anyhow 18z ICON out soon which is our bizarre new belwhether. Been really impressed with the high res version of this model too in recent months. 

    Ithink other posters should check it out on Meteociel. :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    13 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

    Solid mean at 144

    EDH0-144.GIF?15-0

    The uppers on these mean charts are colder than on the operational run. Good....

     The mild runs in mean chart will skew the mean. So if the colder cluster is correct ,expect uppers to be lower again in reality than the mean currently shows........Very good 

    Icon is the new God of models......Excellent 

    Edited by Bottled Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    A definite swing towards colder from the Ecm 12z ensemble mean compared to this morning and yesterday..scandi block is better aligned and closer with more of an easterly rather than the ssely earlier..this is more in line with the excellent ending to the operational!..hopefully on the right track now for a memorable end to winter for coldies!:)

    ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

    ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    CFS daily also with ICON et al 

    Matron check this evolution out

    tempresultojd9_mini.png

    Pulling out a CFS chart for the start of March... we don`t have to drop to that level yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    Pulling out a CFS chart for the start of March... we don`t have to drop to that level yet.

    Although in fairness, the CFS showed an easterly and very cold start to March a long, long way back if memory serves me right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    The similarities of this 12z ECM chart  and the ICON to the 1987 onslaught are there to be discussed.The fat finger of heights up through the UK 

    ECH1-120.GIF?15-0ECM 12Z

    ECH1-240.GIF?15-0leads to this

     

    iconnh-0-123.png?15-12ICON 12Z

    iconnh-0-180.png?15-12leads to this at 180z

     

    archivesnh-1987-1-9-0-0.png1987

    archivesnh-1987-1-12-0-0.pngled to this

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, Luke Best said:

    Although in fairness, the CFS showed an easterly and very cold start to March a long, long way back if memory serves me right.

    Yep!...the last time we experienced a SSW infact (2013)...very consistent with it's outputs in February of 2013 for March and April. Some people have short memories. :)

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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