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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This Easterly has been at day 10 + for ...around 10 days now! At this rate we might get a white Christmas I suppose ?

This isn’t the case though... ECM has us under easterlies at day 5 this persists all the way through with the main event yet to come. Why people are mentioning day 10, is because significant cold from the east is inbound a true notable easterly freeze.

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Block as depicted by the eps mean just about holding on from days 6-9.  Lower heights to the west encroaching - there will be some milder runs at this stage. Clusters will reveal more later.

Edited by mulzy
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2 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

but too many contradictory posts.

 

Same with the models, the Ecm 00z / 12z are completely different, the 00z ending mild, winter ending with a whimper and now the 12z with bitterly cold air from russia marching westwards towards the uk.:)

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Oh my days what a drama on here thiis is getting tense now.

well well well the ECM has finally got there it took time but it has got there. I remember 2 weeks ago when we were looking at a potential easterly the GFS backed off and ECM came aboard and a day later the GFS followed the ECM. Could this happen again I wonder. 

Thd saga goes on 

keep the fans going in here we will be needing all the air we can . 

But I will finish on a caution note let's wait and see what happens from here but still not get overexcited because we know where that leads us if we don't get what we want. 

Keep up the good posts

all the best 

regards ????

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

D5 looks good to me

49CD8690-45E3-4237-A3FD-E0B2AF9B6112.thumb.png.5fa47589d4445a1458e0f528b5c17430.png

D6

554FE01A-AE98-4DB8-8663-BBD9DC7EB9D4.thumb.png.a5bfb66b2f2a2894458884a9b68050c8.png

I admit I’m a little shocked!

So now the mean from the ECM ENS has us in an Easterly from Russia by Wed - what is going on with these models!! ?

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I just knew the ECM would deliver tonight.

 

Watch the 18z follow suite and the morning runs align.

 

I never thought I'd say this but the icon has been like a rock!!

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10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early doors on the eps - pretty good support for the operational.  In fact many runs will be colder.  London 850s at day 6: Mean =-5.5C, Control=-8C.

Yes & a blend of MOGREPS, EPS and GLOSEA. GLOSEA and the 30-day variety of EPS appear to concur,:)

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The ICON  was actually the first to pull the plug on the Sandi height rises that were due to deliver cold a couple of weeks ago. I actually quite like it, seems to be doing quite well imo. I remember this because my love for icon updates stopped whilst I got over that fail! We have now rekindled :air_kiss:

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You couldnt actually make it up could you? Majority models go for a bit of blip and ecm finally churns out mouth watering charts lmao. Definetly giving us all a headache. Ive said it before, but all these swings and roundabouts in winter with good teleconnections, are ususlly the ones that deliver something special. Its the typical way the models work in these scenarios.

Its the usual run of the mill, all models pick up worse trend, then ecm throws a corker after been so stubborn. Ahead of all the doom and gloom 'winter is over' stuff.Fingers crossed.

Edited by Snowjokes92
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