Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Jon Snow 80,613]

Some great charts from the GEFS 12z...again!!

[Deep Snow please 694]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here comes the main event in the east, -12c, -14c uppers on their way at T240?

 

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So just back from work and am catching up.

UKMO - Brilliant 0z, Awful 12z

GFS - Awful 0z, Awful 12z

ECM - Awful 0z, Very good 12z

ICON - Brilliant 0z,  Brilliant 12z

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new king in town.  All hail the ICON

240 ECM and we have a massive easterly incoming... 

This is without doubt the most ludicrous hobby ever *rolls eyes and closes laptop until 9.30pm*

 

Regards the ECM 240 - the bit you guys are interested in isn't even in the run yet, it's that deep in FI. I hope it comes true as much as the next model watcher, especially if we can get those -14 uppers that look to be waiting in the wings. But it's 10 days away, we've already seen how much the models can change in 10 days.

[tight isobar 15,024]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Inclined to regard the ECM as work in progress at the end of the run.  850 temps not that cold yet.

But look where the airs coming from!

This saga has a while to run yet.

Ecm modification stats-are less than desriable- when thremo' gradients are applied'

So...a good ecm 12z...

Edited February 15, 2018 by tight isobar

[blizzard81 6,560]

5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Regards the ECM 240 - the bit you guys are interested in isn't even in the run yet, it's that deep in FI. I hope it comes true as much as the next model watcher, especially if we can get those -14 uppers that look to be waiting in the wings. But it's 10 days away, we've already seen how much the models can change in 10 days.

On the other hand, there is a chance that things could upgrade rapidly over the next 24 to 48 hours with everything being brought forward. I have seen this happen before. It's very rare but that makes it all the sweeter when it does happen. 

Edited February 15, 2018 by blizzard81

[MR EXTREMES 3,195]

Well the ECM says stuff the rest I'm going this way easterly.

Absolutely chaos from the models this week.

Wonder what tomorrow am will be but I'd say if the easterly plays out like models show I'd say it was a quick response from the stratosphere warming event.

Can't wait to see what drama unfolds tomorrow.

But proof that being dramatic about a few runs might be a little premature.

[The Eagle 1,947]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Regards the ECM 240 - the bit you guys are interested in isn't even in the run yet, it's that deep in FI. I hope it comes true as much as the next model watcher, especially if we can get those -14 uppers that look to be waiting in the wings. But it's 10 days away, we've already seen how much the models can change in 10 days.

ECM is ok synoptically. 850 hpa temp wise we don't actually get significant cold in for the duration other than surface cold. 500 hpa heights generally could be better. The promise is post 240 hrs. Anyway it's a step forward after a dire series of 12z op runs but needs support.

 

[Deep Snow please 694]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

On the other hand, there is a chance that things could upgrade rapidly over the next 24 to 48 hours with everything being brought forward. I have seen this happen before. 

I'm sure it has hapenned before and I'm certainly not going to complain if it does, but there does seem to be an element of chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow with things constantly being pushed into FI.

[Tim Bland 13,835]

This Easterly has been at day 10 + for ...around 10 days now! At this rate we might get a white Christmas I suppose ?

[Stuie W 1,864]

6 days time via the ECM, yes 6 not 10. Liking those uppers with dare I say it, a beast in the wings. Whether those wings work or are just for show who knows but like it.

[blizzard81 6,560]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

I'm sure it has hapenned before and I'm certainly not going to complain if it does, but there does seem to be an element of chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow with things constantly being pushed into FI.

I feel your pain, believe me lol. However, I am a great believer in balance so this gives me some hope of some rare rapid upgrades

[SMU 80,650]

16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Steve, you are obviously a knowledgeable chap. Firstly yes I`m with you, secondly, 10 day charts, everything looks great 10 days out. It is as if there is a preset. 

In your experience over the years, what is the verification ratio with these charts? 2,3,4%? Higher?

well If you gave it a bit of leeway here & there yes 5% / 1/20....

[Stuie W 1,864]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

well If you gave it a bit of leeway here & there yes 5% / 1/20....

Thanks for that, Steve. Hopefully now people will realise what we are up against and hopefully not throw their toys out of the pram if it doesn`t come off.

[markw2680 2,758]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 18z gfs climb on board tbh but then who knows what will happen in the morning, all up and down again I’d expect ? 

[karlos1983 21,819]

Graph could be interesting on the ens, good chance it won’t be one of coldest in the suite at D7-10, because the uppers aren’t overly cold......yet.

[MattStoke 6,415]

All today has confirmed is that the models are really struggling with developments next week. Watching people's knee jerk reactions to each run of each model is making it more entertaining.

Edited February 15, 2018 by MattStoke

[mulzy 4,127]

Early doors on the eps - pretty good support for the operational.  In fact many runs will be colder.  London 850s at day 6: Mean =-5.5C, Control=-8C.

[bobbydog 14,514]

saved by the indian model!

goodness gracious me!!

[Daniel* 17,132]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This Easterly has been at day 10 + for ...around 10 days now! At this rate we might get a white Christmas I suppose ?

This isn’t the case though... ECM has us under easterlies at day 5 this persists all the way through with the main event yet to come. Why people are mentioning day 10, is because significant cold from the east is inbound a true notable easterly freeze.

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Daniel*

[Glenn Redwood 119]

So this week seems to have confused everyone?  Where are we at?  Im following closely but too many contradictory posts.

 

[mulzy 4,127]

Block as depicted by the eps mean just about holding on from days 6-9.  Lower heights to the west encroaching - there will be some milder runs at this stage. Clusters will reveal more later.

Edited February 15, 2018 by mulzy

[karlos1983 21,819]

D5 looks good to me

D6

I admit I’m a little shocked!

Edited February 15, 2018 by karlos1983

[Jon Snow 80,613]

2 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

but too many contradictory posts.

 

Same with the models, the Ecm 00z / 12z are completely different, the 00z ending mild, winter ending with a whimper and now the 12z with bitterly cold air from russia marching westwards towards the uk.

[WalsallWeather123 331]

Don't think the CFS has been posted today but boy is it cold

[karlos1983 21,819]

I must admit It’s times like these I wish there was no 06z and 18z runs. Does nothing to help fathom a clearer picture, I’d argue it actually does the complete opposite!

[Summer Sun 53,003]

UKMO at t168 looks to be going for a milder setup