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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeed, and here we go again, ECM @ +T120, the trigger low is back, this could be a cold run. You really couldn't make this up if you tried.:shok:

 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

The first sign of a better ecm run was that updated 72hr fax chart. I knew there was hope left when I saw that at 6pm. Nick Sussex - our collective reverse psychology from earlier might just work lol. 

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Indeed Nick, unless we start playing the long game again?
gfs-0-264.png?12

Is everyone ignoring the MetO extended today? End of winter? Mods, only referenced in here because of the response to this eve’s model output. By the way, I do get it - output is pretty pants currently. But there is clearly confidence at Exeter. 

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All this upgrade in computer power and still models are clueless when trying to work out if an Easterly outbreak will happen or not

and why have people ignored the met office update this afternoon which was going for Easterly 

Edited by SLEETY
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Just now, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144 in a Easterly wind 

7A6BF7CC-7200-42D5-AC77-1A0AB5159DF0.thumb.png.c70a9d7a24f84d31799734bc9ec97b17.png

I actually give up....

 

You and me both :rofl:

Whats the betting the ICON backtracks on the 18z and the GFS 18z jumps on board with the Easterly? This is beyond ridiculous

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Just goes to show that individual operational runs from the models are going to be very unrelaible in the next few days.

As far as UKMO are concerned, the array of ensemble data currently available points to a cold easterly by the end of next week as the most probable outcome.

This may of course change but at the moment it is as it stands. :)

Edited by Purga
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

From a coldie perspective

I’m going to say that the ukmo will not be as good as the 00z run was 

i’m going to say that the ec will be better than the 00z run was 

There is your envelope !

a good day for ukmo to be delayed !!

Spot on! Now whats gfs and ukmo going to do in the 00z:rofl:

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I know some will disagree but the difference in the 0Z & 12Z ECM only highlights what a waste of time viewing ensembles is going to be at the moment. If the higher resolution operationals are prone to such swings then it hardly gives you confidence viewing the ensembles. Rememer ensembles have the starting data tweaked, plus lower resolution. Some will argue the opposite approach but for me my eyes are only focussed on the ECM, UKMO operationals.

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Long drawn easterly it’s been a long time you shouldn’t be surprised by how bullish Exeter has been furthermore the considerable spread cold solutions despite OPs has had higher ground.

955F18DB-522C-4ABF-858C-6D0CBEAA873F.thumb.png.85849c7e532b9fb50d1a143020ff1884.pngB00A05C8-F70C-4579-A6E5-7537F8142C2E.thumb.png.9636a3c6794529f8f58658f2af355158.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Ho hum as I send the fat lady out to get some throat pastels the ECM drops a bomb at T120. Tomorrow mornings run it's going to be the important one to see if it keeps it or drops it.

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Blocking and uncertainty today. There is still a massive range of options available from as early as the 20th and this is highlighted in both the GEFS data and ECM 12z op run so far. I’d expect a few more options in the next couple of days.

Keep your seatbelts fastened... :D

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Ok..

So let us remind ourselves(or those whom thought ec-was correct of late?)

That comparable ukmo synoptics are aligned!!..

Also lets remind ourselves- ecm as a whole(moreso uk recog')..underplays upper thermos(850hpa).

So lets just breath and relax a tad..

Ssw was of massive-impactual thremo dynamics....

Its game on and gaining..quicker now!!!

 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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