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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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So, looks very much like a trend towards lowering AAM as we head into final third of the month.

This looks like the synoptic evolution:

5a85c8eb0386f_gwophase8ninafeb.thumb.gif.69f3f75833fdcb3513a7c49d8c353b22.gif > 5a85c8f0d96f7_gwophase1feb.thumb.gif.da7c58b9b668f35fd55b01b63c0791e7.gif >  5a85c9012e573_gwophase1febandmarch.thumb.gif.4f95eb679a5fcdf832ee66c7be89cf75.gif > 5a85c90da42e7_gwophase2march.thumb.gif.5e613f054e6d243761ec7afac02d86f9.gif

GWO phases 8 - 1 - 1(March) - 2(March)

Phase 1 for Feb suggests too much flow going over the top of any ridge to sustain necessary advection west of cold uppers.

Last five or six days of the month particularly problematic given rapidly altering wavelength and impacts of strat warming. Messy in a word, but reasonable sequence would take the NAO positive to negative.

Edited by Glacier Point
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It's not a case of we've lost all chance now because the second warming will open up another chance. It's a case of being in or close to March and needing the position of the second chance being able to advect -10 uppers and lower at that time of year. As singularity states the high pulling in that cold from Asia does give us that chance

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48 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually this winter it is has prevented it from being a total write off. Very cold pools of air coming off Labrador have delivered wintry conditions at times. It may have not in far south but it has not been a poor winter for a lot of folk.

Absolutely, but in terms of getting a negative NAO it is a major issue and in the central/southern England that is usually what delivers.

It may actually make westerlies a bit colder which will benefit people in the NW but for sustained cold and something widespread it's something I believe gets in our way.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

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ECM 96 seems better than GFS 96. Though not knowledgeable enough to know how it will turn out. Less intense vortex south of Greenland, stronger high pressure over Scandinavia. Seems kinda similar to ICON.

Edited by oasis
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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

Could be. As we all know, there's more to a FAX chart than the raw model data we see.

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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The updated 72hr fax chart has caught my eye. It looks less progressive than the previous 84hr chart and generally looks like more trough disruption. Bizarrely enough, the 72hr chart looks much more like this morning's ukmo run than tonight's run. Will there be a last minute twist to this? 

fax84s.gif

fax72s.gif

Yes indeed, and here we go again, ECM @ +T120, the trigger low is back, this could be a cold run. You really couldn't make this up if you tried.:shok:

 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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This is a model rollercoaster ECM very much like the ICON incredibly alike. Easterly on ECM never thought it was coming!

BBF25435-E958-492C-A00E-B1C7D5986A52.thumb.gif.e10fbc019b75375fb68045725f56d405.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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Just now, Daniel* said:

This is a model rollercoaster ECM very much like the ICON incredibly alike. Easterly on ECM never thought it was coming!

BBF25435-E958-492C-A00E-B1C7D5986A52.thumb.gif.e10fbc019b75375fb68045725f56d405.gif

Someone said earlier, imagine if the ECM sides with the ICON, this is completely mad now.:crazy:

All eyes on the T144 chart.

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This is like looking forward to something so much....going 2-0 down in the first ten minutes through GEM and UKMO? pulling one back through ICON and then despairing as a penalty is conceded to GFS.....only to see ECM step up to take it!

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ECM 120-

2E645CF9-3476-4C85-82A0-232E96994A36.thumb.png.5e29e293b5ddab827b38260b1818ecd9.png

 

You have to laugh as the ECM alligns with the IKON..

Lol what a merry go round.... 

Wheres that computer smash GIF

Edited by Steve Murr
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Unfortunately not the charts we were seeing a couple of days ago but not too downbeat yet as to be honest it doesn’t seem any model has a grasp of the situation at all. 

And then lo and behold, after some shocking runs the ECM comes up with a good run so far!

although after looking at the ens, it was perfectly plausible that it would throw a much better run this eve. 

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