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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So despite the early excitement from the IKON & GFs moving the shortwave early doors its been all down hill from there

similar to 2012 the models have picked up a shortwave at 144 that will impede the retrograde North of the High- GFS / UKMO / GEM all now positive in the tilted atlantic-

ECM had this last 2 runs-

Pretty Pony TBH.

Wasn't it the case all along? Just one rouge UKM and a consistent ICON gave the impression something was still afoot.

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Just now, Sneachtastorm said:

Wasn't looking great even before this run, like I said when we're using ICON as an example it's just desperate times. The GFS gets a right old rollicking it would appear it was more on the money the UKMO

Don’t forget navgem is still good

*awaits 12z by a disproportionate amount*

:rofl:

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The ukmo was obviously wanting it's 15 minutes of fame this morning. Things are really starting to look ominous now. Icon is the new navgem. I criticised last weekends ecm runs but it looks like it may have nailed it that far out. 

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As I said on Tuesday morning:

“My worry is the high doesn’t get far enough north and we end up stuck under a U.K. based high, while the cold goes to Central/SE Europe instead. 

Seen it numerous times before with this type of scenario, we get dreamy charts and then around T120-144 a shortwave appears in the GIN corridor, the northern arm of the jet is stronger than expected and we end up in no mans land, followed by a gradual sinking of the high into Europe.

Usually in the above scenario, we get one of the main models warning of this around T144 - usually the UKMO model.”

 

The above outcome happens 99 times out of 100 so shouldnt come as a surprise. 

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Worst. SSW. Ever.

Looks like a bog standard chart, nothing remotely seems to have been impacted ....yet?

 

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No way to cold from there.

Because the SSW was too late in winter, I have always said it takes 3/4 weeks to effect the Trop in any significant manner. Net result, an early Spring in late Feb, and then sometime in March the mega winter charts with northern blocking in all the right places will turn up to ruin our March/April no doubt, and yes it can still snow in March and April in lowland Britain, (June in Scotland).

Early Easter this year, white Easter could be on the cards.;)

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter.

The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8.

Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip.

Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution.

Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

Indeed Nick, unless we start playing the long game again?
gfs-0-264.png?12

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11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Wasn't it the case all along? Just one rouge UKM and a consistent ICON gave the impression something was still afoot.

 No it was a lot more than that-

Suites inc MOGREPS package leading UKMO update yesterday..

Anyway. lets see where the evening goes-

Im on holiday till sunday so im happy theres a delay !!

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I've moved a set of posts over to the moans thread - if it's just a moan with no other comment or discussion, then please just use that thread..

 

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 No it was a lot more than that-

Suites inc MOGREPS package leading UKMO update yesterday..

Anyway. lets see where the evening goes-

Im on holiday till sunday so im happy theres a delay !!

Exeter playing a vague game re the onset of proper cold (turning colder end next week with possible snowfall into the early part of the following week). Ukmo 12z uppers show it will be cold later next week and could easily move to a more wintry scenario by the early part of the following week. 

 

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Can we put to bed now the fantasies that the models have an Atlantic driven bias and always underestimate the strength of blocking to the east?

The percentage of runs that have enveloped us in cold uppers swarming over from the East is far far greater than the percentage of such days we actually experience.

If anything i would say the models have shown themselves to be over-calibrated (if that's the expression) into exaggerating the extent to which we would be subject to easterlies

 

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

If it is the overall main upper ridge-trough pattern then in my view you are wrong. If it is detail on close in timings then of course 10-15 degrees of longitude or latitude will make all the difference. Overall I believe the statistics give a good idea of how models perform in an overall sense. None of us have enough detail or indeed time to try and equate these statistics to just the UK area. 

So it could be right it could wrong? Bit like the models overall i guess! ?

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38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:



Looks like the cold air pouring out of Canada is going to cost us again, as it has done so many times in recent winters. I'd rather look forward to some dry, milder days under high pressure anyway now :)
 

Actually this winter it is has prevented it from being a total write off. Very cold pools of air coming off Labrador have delivered wintry conditions at times. It may have not in far south but it has not been a poor winter for a lot of folk.

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually this winter it is has prevented it from being a total write off. Very cold pools of air coming off Labrador have delivered wintry conditions at times. It may have not in far south but it has not been a poor winter for a lot of folk.

Disappointing outputs this afternoon, particularly the remaining strength of the PV around Greenland which is pushing too much energy north of the UK. 

I would also say in response to Weather-History’s point, this hasn’t been a classic winter by any means, but even for many down south it’s been the best since 2013. December snowfall here in the northern suburbs of London gave us 3 or so inches of snow. More than the previous 4 winters combined. 

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Can we keep it to the models please, I get a bit of topic drift and why it's happened, but we'll end up with 2 pages of winter reviews if that continues, so please go over to the winter thread if you want to chat about the winter overall etc. 

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A reason why we tend to use ens is clear from the morning 00z eps mean against the 12z ukmo - it also tells us that ukmo day 6 is a decent run wrt cross model continuity 

44466608-F7C2-475F-B33F-9294F04A3E61.thumb.jpeg.1316b7884e2ad142505867531cf5a6de.jpeg 62931921-2AAB-4AEA-B305-2D4A48C17EC4.thumb.jpeg.2103f7c61516cb853877fd01c126e1be.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy
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Not a lot changed for end of next week and into following really. Increasing freauncy of easterly winds as per MET guidance.Timing and placements obviously not decided.Have a feeling easterlies will be brought forward over the weekend.

 

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15 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Interesting that the T144 ensembles from gefs still having problems with energy and how that interacts with the high building.

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not sure why you post the spread and a specific member ???

 

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16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Not a lot changed for end of next week and into following really. Increasing freauncy of easterly winds as per MET guidance.Timing and placements obviously not decided.Have a feeling easterlies will be brought forward over the weekend.

 

Screenshot_20180215-173356.png

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as time passes, the Canadian vortex will begin to lose a lot of its strength with the second warming. so the blocking should be able to gain more traction with less strength in the northern arm

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