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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    It really does come to something when a cannon fodder model is far more consistent than the big 3 have managed combined. The fact ICON still takes that shortwave and drops it Southwards is encouraging and something we want to see the other models begin to pick up too. 

    GFS is rolling out but I've lost all interest in that model now, it's been more useless than a rock sat in the garden.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Yes, the 850's are colder (slightly) by 108hrs.

     

    And within that time frame...is a significant route'ing!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    GFS is rolling out but I've lost all interest in that model now, it's been more useless than a rock sat in the garden.

    Yes, but if it comes into line with ICON it will ease a lot of tension in here!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Surely the cold weather is coming now as the met office update  this afternoon is still the same with it turning much colder with snowfalls end of next week

     

    they are obviously going with their model and mogreps must be showing the same signal ,ignorne the gfs and ecm then it seems 

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    Just now, Sneachtastorm said:

    It wouldn't even be mentioned if the big 3 were showing what people want to see happen. 

    The ensembles are solidly behind a blocked cold pattern though, it's only really the OPS that aren't showing it.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

    So compared to the 06z that little low had adjusted south, bringing it in line with the 00z JMA for example. That run then sent the system into C. Europe to act as the 'trigger low' for a quick route to the cold easterly.

    Will GFS do the same? It really should...

    h850t850eu.png

    ...and you know what, it just might be on the way to doing so!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Was it Michael Angelo  or Leonardo  that once said Kowabunga         Icon a peach on it 12 z run  

    icon-0-159.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    finally a pidgeon step from the GFS

    trigger low appears -

    240E2DE2-063B-4B24-AACC-1BE90D1030DF.thumb.png.919af432b439f8bc439f4d83b15fe2e6.png

    the first steps...

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Don’t particularly like to cherry pick charts from the Model tree (been guilty of doing it before, mind), but the 00Z NAVGEM seems to be another model (just like the 00Z UKMO) that unearths an Easterly/North-Easterly within the 6+ day period. Examples used from 120, 144, 168 and 180 hours.

    8C2057AA-9A9C-4BA0-BF51-64A4BC9C1585.thumb.png.ba183131749f6f46cfc3c5c3e196d4c5.png

    699CCFDC-0D52-4FF0-9B0C-7F413296E761.thumb.png.5ac033d5d8fe69111e8bbf54acd2b7ca.png

    E337C59F-7C75-4CD0-B846-D4D26DDF28FC.thumb.png.8734aab1347cf40d54af21c0613b1d89.pngEBA6B5A6-138C-4014-9CD6-7BD69AE33E3A.thumb.png.fa9a928578c336afaecab326ba10fbf5.png

    Apologies if these charts have been posted by others already. But the NAVGEM can feel left out at times and can do with a bit of attention... despite it not being the best performing model.

    Unless stronger support occurs within the 6+ day timeframe for a Polar Continental Easterly to occur, then I’m gonna resist all forces from the likes of the 00Z UKMO, 00/06Z ICON and 00Z NAVGEM to knock me into the whirlpool of continental cold and snowy excitement! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    hgt300.png hgt300.png

    Such a tiny bit sharper with the ridge.

    h500slp.png

    Yet that's all it's taken to get the shallow low edging into Europe.

    Admittedly this is as 'only just' as the model could possibly have managed - the low is so shallow and in no rush to get to Central Europe - but as a trend it's good to see :).

    At this point it's most similar to the 00z ECM and GEM. So either a tragic or a fantastic run coming along depending on what happens with the US and Atlantic troughs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  • Location: Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.

    Improvement of the high on icon at t165. Better easterly and colder uppers. 

     

    3FFCBF60-4AF6-4D51-9B7B-9148A6C73F03.png

     

    80B17614-E3E1-4E94-BCE3-0BD1DEDB0444.png

    Edited by Fingers
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Seen worse charts   Icon 180z  

    icon-0-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    So then for the haters, The IKON is going to own the GFS here around the s/wave

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Ice days on the icon it looks like ,gfs ecm credibility on the line this afternoon,especially after the met update:gathering:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    From a coldie perspective

    I’m going to say that the ukmo will not be as good as the 00z run was 

    i’m going to say that the ec will be better than the 00z run was 

    There is your envelope !

    a good day for ukmo to be delayed !!

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gem-0-138.png?12

    So GEM has that little low splitting away from the trough by the Azores that recent ECM runs have used to really shove at the blocking high. It's also been a lot more progressive up to this point than the 00z.

    Trough disruption N of Scandinavia should allow the blocking further afield to linkup and start sending the deep cold across, but will the blocking by the UK hold on far west enough for us to benefit within the working week? gem-0-144.png?12

    Perhaps not.
    The US-Atlantic trough interaction has failed on this run so it's heading down the ECM 00z route. Oh well! All we can do now is see what GFS comes up with while considering the UKMO once that shows its face.

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    Posted
  • Location: north shields
  • Location: north shields

    ukmo  is out at 96 on wetter sorry can't post links but its not like this mornings run- sorry was yesterdays :)

    Edited by jason75
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  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Surprise surprise, GFS doesn't want to know

    GFS.thumb.png.d593cf7038b925e25d521be0f09d7950.png

    Shortwave still going E/NE and not South as per ICON.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    UKMO 96hrs has the shortwave to the East of the UK, it's following the ICON

    UKMO.thumb.gif.17372996f7000d9aace5ce984105fd85.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Surprise surprise, GFS doesn't want to know

    GFS.thumb.png.d593cf7038b925e25d521be0f09d7950.png

    Shortwave still going E/NE and not South as per ICON.

    try again

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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