Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[johnholmes]

31 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle? 

If it is the overall main upper ridge-trough pattern then in my view you are wrong. If it is detail on close in timings then of course 10-15 degrees of longitude or latitude will make all the difference. Overall I believe the statistics give a good idea of how models perform in an overall sense. None of us have enough detail or indeed time to try and equate these statistics to just the UK area. 

[frosty ground]

Less ridging at day 3...... 

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Less ridging at day 3...... 

Not true the angle at 87 hours is more vertical and the heights over Greenalnd held back it's better

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Less ridging at day 3...... 

I must be blind as that looks pretty much identical to me

[tight isobar]

@punt...

Gfs 12z finding(after miss manage)..

The corrections on by way-to heights align @120(tops)..

Its been close as close on factors of energy traces-and height format..but gone off wobbly...

Expecting a 'vastly' better run here than for sometime!!??

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

I must be blind as that looks pretty much identical to me

 

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Not true the angle at 87 hours is more vertical and the heights over Greenalnd held back it's better

 

You can clearly see the heights have not gotten as far north, aka less ridging, Might lead to nothing.

[weirpig]

Cant believe im watching the Icon  but it looks very similar to its previous run.  Be nice for the first run of the suite to nail the easterly.

[frosty ground]

You can see the image on the left has less heights than the one on the right. 


 

[radiohead]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Less ridging at day 3...... 

That is 72 hours and 78 hours from the same run?

[Chris101]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Less ridging at day 3...... 

What run are you comparing it to? They are both the 12z

[frosty ground]

Just now, radiohead said:

That is 72 hours and 78 hours from the same run?

Nope 6z vs 12 z

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

What run are you comparing it to? They are both the 12z

Errrm not on my screen? not sure whats going on thats two people saying this now?

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Cant believe im watching the Icon  but it looks very similar to its previous run.  Be nice for the first run of the suite to nail the easterly.

Yes, at 96 hours virtually identical to 06z and easterly still incoming. 

[Met4Cast]

There is less ridging on the ICON but the shortwave over Scandi is still dropping South which is the important part

Shortwave drops South, Easterly incoming.

The quick route to cold runs, UKMO/GEM/ICON take the shortwave South and then West, the rubbish runs GFS/ECM take it East or North-East.

Until this is resolved, we wont know whats going to happen. Encouraging that the ICON hasn't changed, though.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Seasonality]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Errrm not on my screen? not sure whats going on thats two people saying this now?

I see two 12z charts

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Nope 6z vs 12 z

Both are from the 12Z. You must have linked the dynamic images instead of the archived 6Z. 

[frosty ground]

 12z vs 06z

you can see the effect now, an easterly on our doorstep but the atlantic is also closer to our small island.

Did this one work?

Edited February 15, 2018 by frosty ground

[bobbydog]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Errrm not on my screen? not sure whats going on thats two people saying this now?

the first charts you posted were from the same run. the second two are different runs

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

You can see the image on the left has less heights than the one on the right. 


 

You can also see how much closer the cold air is. It's not about the yellows its the angle of the ridging as well

[Daniel*]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

There is less ridging on the ICON but the shortwave over Scandi is still dropping South which is the important part

Not really folk are being pedantic it still extends as north no change, less is more sometimes.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

You can also see how much closer the cold air is. It's not about the yellows its the angle of the ridging as well

Yes, the 850's are colder (slightly) by 108hrs.

 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not really folk are being pedantic it still extends as north no change, less is more sometimes.

I know, I was just saying that there is less ridging. It hasn't make a blinding bit of difference to the outcome, though.

[Seasonality]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

I know, I was just saying that there is less ridging. It hasn't make a blinding bit of difference to the outcome, though.

If anything, the 12z ICON has brought in colder air than the 06z

[Daniel*]

ICON has not swayed direction extremely alike to 06Z.

[Rocheydub]

Crunch time coming up soon on 12z GFS... The 96 up to 120 hrs could cause a lot of consternation, or happiness!