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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    31 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

    Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle? 

    If it is the overall main upper ridge-trough pattern then in my view you are wrong. If it is detail on close in timings then of course 10-15 degrees of longitude or latitude will make all the difference. Overall I believe the statistics give a good idea of how models perform in an overall sense. None of us have enough detail or indeed time to try and equate these statistics to just the UK area. 

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    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    @punt...

    Gfs 12z finding(after miss manage)..

    The corrections on by way-to heights align @120(tops)..

    Its been close as close on factors of energy traces-and height format..but gone off wobbly...

    Expecting a 'vastly' better run here than for sometime!!??

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    I must be blind as that looks pretty much identical to me

     

    1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

    Not true the angle at 87 hours is more vertical and the heights over Greenalnd held back it's better

     

    You can clearly see the heights have not gotten as far north, aka less ridging, Might lead to nothing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Cant believe im watching the Icon  but it looks very similar to its previous run.  Be nice for the first run of the suite to nail the easterly.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
    6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    icon-0-72.png?15-12icon-0-78.png?15-06

    Less ridging at day 3...... 

    What run are you comparing it to? They are both the 12z

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, weirpig said:

    Cant believe im watching the Icon  but it looks very similar to its previous run.  Be nice for the first run of the suite to nail the easterly.

    Yes, at 96 hours virtually identical to 06z and easterly still incoming. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    There is less ridging on the ICON but the shortwave over Scandi is still dropping South which is the important part

    SW.thumb.png.297e9e7f1bc201a073dbf5f0680e4119.png

    Shortwave drops South, Easterly incoming.

    Eas.thumb.png.f6ce16eb4be5220936aa96ac06ad2041.png

    The quick route to cold runs, UKMO/GEM/ICON take the shortwave South and then West, the rubbish runs GFS/ECM take it East or North-East.

    Until this is resolved, we wont know whats going to happen. Encouraging that the ICON hasn't changed, though.

    Edited by Daniel Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Errrm not on my screen? not sure whats going on thats two people saying this now?

    I see two 12z charts

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Errrm not on my screen? not sure whats going on thats two people saying this now?

    the first charts you posted were from the same run. the second two are different runs

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    icon-0-93.pngicon-0-99.png

    You can see the image on the left has less heights than the one on the right. 


     

    You can also see how much closer the cold air is. It's not about the yellows its the angle of the ridging as well

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    Just now, Daniel Smith said:

    There is less ridging on the ICON but the shortwave over Scandi is still dropping South which is the important part

    SW.thumb.png.297e9e7f1bc201a073dbf5f0680e4119.png

    Not really folk are being pedantic it still extends as north no change, less is more sometimes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Not really folk are being pedantic it still extends as north no change, less is more sometimes.

    I know, I was just saying that there is less ridging. It hasn't make a blinding bit of difference to the outcome, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, Daniel Smith said:

    I know, I was just saying that there is less ridging. It hasn't make a blinding bit of difference to the outcome, though.

    If anything, the 12z ICON has brought in colder air than the 06z

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Crunch time coming up soon on 12z GFS... The 96 up to 120 hrs could cause a lot of consternation, or happiness!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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