Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Just now, Banbury said:

^^^^^^

Do you really thing GFS and ECM and side by side Seasonality?

No, neither in their historical reputation and verification or in terms of showing an identical outcome. But neither of their current operationals show the rapid route to cold nirvana, and that makes them at odds with the IKON and UKMO output, and that was the point I was making. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Well now, Steve, I would've thought you'd know better than to rely on one run (and I know you do!). Fun is fun and ramping is ramping but UKMO & IKON vs GFS & ECM isn't quids in for cold. And yes, facts and science do matter when predicting the weather (and I know you know that too).

Yes facts and science and that where the met comes into its own they have so much more data available to them and have highly paid professionals in the meteorology field and that’s why I feel upbeat about the outlook, until they change their wording then I’m a believer.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No, neither in their historical reputation and verification or in terms of showing an identical outcome. But neither of their current operationals show the rapid route to cold nirvana, and that makes them at odds with the IKON and UKMO output, and that was the point I was making. 

Fair point 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Just now, The Eagle said:

ECM has moved slightly to the UKMO at 72 to 96 hours which is very positive.

and in general and from experience watching models, once UKMO flips at short range to a colder scenario it usually ends up correct......2013 and WTF springs to mind....

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Did anyone else hear that pin drop after the ECM?

Seriously though, that ECM cannot be trusted, and I'm not saying this because I don't like it. The GFS, which stalls the cold for an age, is I'm afraid a completely plausible way of not getting cold out of the pattern, and is comfortably within the range of the ensembles. The UKMO seems overenthusiastic about getting a cold easterly to us by just D6, but is just about within the possible range of all the solutions we've seen. But the ECM op D7-D10 has absolutely ZERO support from any run anywhere in the past 24 hours, including its own ensembles. 

ECM op versus the rest of the world? Doesn't normally end well for the ECM.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Fwiw ba some of the more ‘lesser suites’ going the same way as ukmo this morning, ?

Tbh, they haven’t jumped, they were on board yesterday!

ec op is astonishing in its latter stages. At odds with everything expected but the model can do this - once it gets it wrong it just carries on getting worse with its solution. Of course, we’re assuming it’s getting it wrong ...........

looking at its strat profile it’s very odd -  disconnect between strat and trop in fi which hasn’t been showing for a long time now

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

If you think GFS op has a handle  on anything after 23rd think again

 

Screenshot_20180215-072311.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

I am going to say it. Ensembles ensembles ensembles.  All the experts take a glance at the ops, but it is the ensembles they take notice of.

Edited by warrenb
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Snowing out my window at the moment. Sometimes have to bare in mind the here and now rather than always looking ahead or you will miss it :p

But yeah positive overall this morning. A couple of GFS ensemble members have the dropping shortwave at 96 hours too.

Edited by The Eagle
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Correct Warren. Didn't Ian F tweet that the ops will struggle in scenarios like this, and to follow ensembles?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow, if the Ecm 00z verifies it will soon be time for the first BBQ:shok:..turning much milder later in the run, especially further south:help:

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

ezgif-com-crop-33.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

If you think GFS op has a handle  on anything after 23rd think again

 

Screenshot_20180215-072311.png

I think that’s the best set yet - still a scatter but very few above 0c 850

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Wow just checked the models. I actually laughed out loud when I looked at the ECM - it's awful!

This SSW lark hasn't been as enjoyable as I thought it would be!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I am going to say it. Ensembles ensembles ensembles.  All the experts take a glance at the ops, but it is the ensembles they take notice of.

Hope Aaron isn’t reading this .........

anyeay, the eps take a step towards the new ukmo and the much mentioned cluster!  But it then moves towards the stronger ‘flatter’ northern arm around day 6/7. 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

If you think GFS op has a handle  on anything after 23rd think again

 

Screenshot_20180215-072311.png

However the ensemble mean continues to bang on the same theme, probably for the 25th consecutive run. Strong Scandi surface high from 23rd February onwards. Migrating to a Greenland high around the turn of the month.

What your chart shows is that the Scandi high in particular puts the UK at the edge of the "big cold" and there is a risk of milder air sneaking in to the south, a la  GFS op.

The odds of 70/30 in favour of cold seems reasonable to me.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Will this saga ever end ? The ECM is woefull. The GEFS 00z are good . IMG_1494.thumb.PNG.78b655987b87b026f231c2f53d92b1e0.PNG

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I wouldn't worry about the Ecm 00z..I've heard that temperatures will drop off later next week so the ecm is probably barking up the wrong tree!:)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
48 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Yes facts and science and that where the met comes into its own they have so much more data available to them and have highly paid professionals in the meteorology field and that’s why I feel upbeat about the outlook, until they change their wording then I’m a believer.

Indeed, and I have the highest regard for the met. But the point I was making in response to the earlier post still stands. If the Met are on board then I too remain happy!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Just now, nick sussex said:

Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

Nick what do the USA weather service say about that shortwave. Any good news from there

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief what is going on!

The differences are stark and just as the UKMO has a big upgrade the ECM turns into a complete horror show.

FI is at T96 hrs, look upstream for your belwether. The shortwave low exiting the ne USA.

The colder outputs develop that and it phases for a time with the troughing over Greenland .

This downstream impacts the low near Iceland.

You would imagine that ecm could handle that shortwave at 96 exiting the USA can somebody unplug it please!just once can we have agreement :closedeyes:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Only viewed what's been posted but from what I can gather it's Exeter's general cold lookout, UKMO, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS and a few others? vs GFS OP & ECM

Quite happy then as it stands. When an Easterly is predicted I am far happier with the UKMO on board over the others, when this isn't the case i'd be more concerned.

Plenty to be positive about this morning.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO going with the Exeter update of yesterday? Things are set from T+96. 

6238BE0C-E2CD-46AE-BA1B-DB9EBF9555D4.thumb.gif.a814c9a8fabf5ff80ab3e8ef87e5824e.gif

If I had to pick a model you want on side for the quick Easterly, it has to be the UKMO, every time without question. 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...