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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at the wind chill and DP’s for Sunday!!

debating whether to tell my brothers or laugh at them as we wonder between pubs at Wembley in Sunday afternoon?

A223B7A1-F7D1-42E7-8999-3470805111B9.thumb.gif.70c8179c13129fc8486fb12c7d317dfb.gifE7272FE9-3389-46AF-A588-C27CB82BCA52.thumb.gif.28a7e0b638162366e648abed5114b83a.gif

how certain are we this cold air will arrive? Because I am at the point I’m not sure I can hold off telling people for much longer. Looks nailed to me, but I’ve got that nagging feeling to hold off!!

Cold spell - Very high confidence.

Significant cold and snowy spell - Moderate confidence.

Should the model output be unchanged by Thursday, I think confidence in a significant cold spell will be high.

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3 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

This set up looks more potent than 1991?

Potentially. The coldest upper air in the south may end up being a degree or two less cold than 1991 but the overall area of very cold air looks like it will be larger than 1991. It's far too early to predict snowfall amounts though. 

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.b57be6a2657711a3ae5e5be3ad66b491.png

Anyone else concerned by the Scandi feature on the 00z at T72? Likely to be the reason for the delay in the coldest air. Stunning output though.

This feature has been flagging up randomly-last 48 hrs!!

Although-its progress north-eastwards has been a decent dynamic-via run 2 run consequence.

So not a problem imo.

Edited by tight isobar
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19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at the wind chill and DP’s for Sunday!!

debating whether to tell my brothers or laugh at them as we wonder between pubs at Wembley in Sunday afternoon?

A223B7A1-F7D1-42E7-8999-3470805111B9.thumb.gif.70c8179c13129fc8486fb12c7d317dfb.gifE7272FE9-3389-46AF-A588-C27CB82BCA52.thumb.gif.28a7e0b638162366e648abed5114b83a.gif

how certain are we this cold air will arrive? Because I am at the point I’m not sure I can hold off telling people for much longer. Looks nailed to me, but I’ve got that nagging feeling to hold off!!

I've capitulated and gone for it -probably see me nailed to a gutter - tarred and feathered ! 

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Well for a change, I am worrying more about the severity of potential impacts than whatever chance there is of the 'beast' dodging us at short notice.

Not much worth adding really, so much has already been said about the extremity of the model output we currently have.


Amazing how ECM reverted to developing many distortions in the flow while it's still over the continent, slowing the westward transport, and yet still ended up producing some sensational charts.

It will be educational when we find out whether it's been right to 'mess with the flow' so much. Other models generally favour either a cleaner flow or a broader disturbance that helps funnel the cold west (provided it doesn't bomb out and wrap the cold in). 

 

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12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z.

UW144-7.GIF?19-00UW120-7.GIF?20-06

If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high.

Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.

Its OK don't worry about us in the SE. We'll just wait for the channel low after the cold air comes :D

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While the models have got a solid enough look about them to trust the inbound cold easterly will arrive, there's enough variances on each run to make nothing certain regarding the extent of snowfall.  For example I'm off to Ischgl in Austria on Saturday and constantly checking the 10 day weather. Yesterday it looked like there was more chance of it snowing here than there while I was away. Today shows snow everyday while I'm there!  

Little shifts back and forth of 50- 200 miles....nothing in the global scale of things but will potentially have big impacts at a local kevel

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1 minute ago, c00ps said:

Its OK don't worry about us in the SE. We'll just wait for the channel low after the cold air comes :D

Similarly for us in the north west who can wait on the polar low coming in on the back of your channel low.

In all seriousness whilst these runs show exceptional cold nationwide, the snow is primarily confined to the east coast at present so we'll be needing a few troughs to bring the Midlands and the North West of England fully into the game. The weakened convection Machine is also an issue. Even then though there appears to be a realistic possibility of a Greenland high out in Fantasy Island which would resolve much of this problem.

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19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For our Cornish friends keep an eye on the exact wind flow because anything with a touch of se in the easterly flow can deliver down there. Also areas a bit further east right on the coast if theres enough se in the flow.

I'm watching this very carefully Nick!! The English Channel lake effect is as rare as anything but if it sets up there could be a big shock for the south coast, particularly S Devon I'd say, maybe even @karlos1983. I think it's a slight outsider at the moment though?

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