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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

Thank you!

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High moving towards Greenland by 192 hours - ECM1-192_zhj3.GIF

Confused by posts about the Met Office outlook. It hasn't changed since yesterday. It's exactly the same.

Edited by MattStoke
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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Sensation over stuff.  All models onboard, just the ECM a little slower than the rest, but it well and truly delivers.

ECM at 216 :bomb:


It's going its own way, but every way results in a winter battering for poor old blighty.


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I keep waking up dreading reading this forum the last few days. But yet again this morning nothing to worry about. All models on board just slightly different with timings. Phew ? 

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1 hour ago, shane303 said:

The models could Still all change alot to a less cold set up so won’t be a done deal until maybe Thursday 

You giving daffodils a reprieve based on what ? Don't you think its their time to suffer just once.

GFS Monday morning

Netweather GFS Image

Bury them, just once 

Image result for daffodils frozen snow

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6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Oh my god!!


Upgrade after upgrade, all nuances rather than wholesale changes, but all lining up to be something that may have been worth waiting for.

Not sure I'll be getting many miles in early March... One of those kinks is pretty much over my gaff! 

To Paraphrase Roy Scheider "we're gonna need a bigger shovel" 

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If only this day 10 chart was day 3...

About as severe as you'll get in the UK in terms of depth of cold/snow


You won't know what to do with yourself if the severe cold actually arrives as planned Crewe, you won't be able to make pessimistic posts about it not happening and always being in FI :) I'm not seeing the ICON being given much love this morning so here goes, closer to the ECM and UKMO solution at that time frame than the GFS but all roads lead to cold it seems with the current output, so glass is increasingly looking like it will be half full!


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1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April.... 

Why do some always see the end before it's begun:rofl::D

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8 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Just for fun ECM


Hi, Looking at the charts from the top 3 models and seeing that the projected easterly is by no means a weak flow, in fact quite robust I have no issues being on the west side of the pennines. Last time we saw charts like these snow depths were up to a foot in parts of the west with drifting up to 10 ft high.

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