Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, pages said:

    the only other thing I can think of is the SSW is still under modelled and block shoots to Greenland and further before the cold comes in but seeing we haven't really seen that on any model yet I think it is very small chance

    Yes, that is what I'm thinking if a spoiler was to occur.

    A low probability on modelling at present but 24 hours is a long time in meteorology!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 4.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

    I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

    Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Remaining  brilliant..

     

    And the 'goat horn' shape is eroding!!

    ...great set of ens there!

    London 18z set.

    MT8_London_ens (1).png

    Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

    Anyway reloaad alert!

    image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

    :yahoo:

    PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands
    3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

    I'm here - been working and have also had to pick myself off the floor after checking the 12Z.

    Best ever trop response that we have been able to track following a SSW, oh those of little faith lol.

    I did think of buying all the snow shovels and salt in B&Q yesterday and then selling it back to them next weekend....

    I have been convinced of an epic cold spell for a long time now (since before the split but my resolute belief was reinforced when I saw the residual Hudson Bay daughter vortex getting taken down).

    It may have taken the best part of 10 years but finally we are seeing the makings of an epic spell when you take the strat vortex out of the equation. Even @TEITS may finally have to concede that there is something in this teleconnections Malarkey!

    I want to pay my respects to Chionomaniac, who has tried so long to bring the effects of a SSW on the tropospheric conditions to attention!

    We are currently seeing what that means! CHIO gave the first signals on the stratosphere thread and: Yes, we are seeing an incredible SSW and we are seeing incredible tropospherical response. Let us remember how long it took for the models to take a grasp on this and, certainly with this kind of events, Keep the eyes on the large-scale movements when SSW events occur and a lot off uncertainty from models wil take a place!

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I don’t buy the only way is downgrades from here, in fact I see good broad consistency emerging and a reconsolidation this cold spell means serious business. This is unparalleled we can’t look to the past, as nothing at least in internet age has occurred like this. The quite extreme synoptics actually many have there unique flair to them, I haven’t seen anything like it the archives. It’s really a pleasure to watch unfold, too often we coldies are really thrown about like dirt,  every once and while we get a break! despite how helpless it looks getting in a long rut - this break is it IMO. The wretched M4 corridor its end is soon to come. :p 

    Edited by Daniel*
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

    just when we had cross model agreement 1 had to go a different way at least its only Navgem and we will know if its wrong by morning as it loses plot before T- 72 with a much shallower feature south of Greenland so less WAA going north.

    navgemnh-0-72.png?20-00

    which means less robust heights to north resulting in shortwave going across Svalbard at 156hr.

    navgemnh-0-156.png?20-00

    then causes block to be ridiculously further south at 180

    navgem-0-180.png?20-00

    pretty confident its wrong as its Navgem plus not even one ensemble did this but then again with the SSW maybe the vortex is running out of steam quicker and there won't be a 975 low to south of Greenland at  72hr like on ever other model. while its showing however remote we aren't home and hosed yet.

    plus both JMA 18z & Icon 18Z have the low along with the 18Z so 3v1 against the Navgem. its worse model than all of them 3 so shouldn't be nervous.

    Jma-J72-21.GIF?20-18

    Icon-icon-0-72.png?19-18

     

    GFS-gfs-0-72.png?18

     

    Edited by pages
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

    Some would assume, im watching the most 'emotional ever' movie unfold...

    But i'd have great difficulty explaining otherwise...why i have tears in my eyes!! ??????

    gfs-0-186.png

    You're not alone TI, I've just seen your chart, swigged back a large vodka and missed my mouth...? Eyes are stinging but still in euphoria ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    19 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

    Anyway reloaad alert!

    image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

    :yahoo:

    PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

     

     

    19 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs :closedeyes:

    Anyway reloaad alert!

    image.thumb.png.d74ba87a6ec5657ab8c9e474bfcd02ff.pngimage.thumb.png.4fee364e0d36c172a69fff26e5d331d8.png

    :yahoo:

    PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

     

    Trying to substantiate-between ops/ens will -kill you slowly.

    although support is in -its initial stages ...moving forwards

    We can see the gfs wants to 'revert' to type, and format the basing of mobile-zonal influence.

    However- the reversal- and atm strat warm...will have implication.

    Any' retro/or height align..will have a say.

    And to undo a shoe'lace..is a complex matter..as every anti-basing is a baby new born...

    Aka strat warm- reverse zonal, ..

    Massive suites coming up.

    And the supporting data will likely become the lead man...!

    gfs-0-288.png

    MT8_London_ens (1).png

    Edited by tight isobar
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

    If the ECM snow accumulation charts don't factor in convective snow then I'm actually quite worried about the severity, from the charts below.

    Luckily I've been prepared for about 8yrs for a really bad spell, grit wise, but I do panic that local councils are not and I know my car is not up even with new all season tyres. I love the snow and live in a lucky area, looking for my 26th day of snow, but I have to say from the current  models, I think the East of the country could be seriously affected as there really seems no end in sight from some  models. Let's get ready to Rumble ❄ ❄

    S80220-00075975.jpg

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    On 16/02/2018 at 10:30, ajpoolshark said:

    *stop press*

    *Weather Agencies upgrade models due to SSW*

    Big news today folks as the major weather agencies proudly announce 3 new super models......Heide Klum, Cindy Crawford, & Ellie Macpherson....A spokesperson at met office was quoted as saying "in this current volatile climate, we feel that these 3 new super models will give us our best chance of resolving the SSW dilemma, we have faith that Heide, Cindy & Ellie can take our knowledge to a new level and besides, it'll make the office calanders look far more attractive".........Asked why the UKMO, GFS & ECM hve been dropped, he replied, "after viewing the overnight outputs all our senior forecasters can think of is white powder, flip flops & prozac"

    well, that's my take on the current model outputs folks, it's a mess, but joking aside, quite a few pro's have been tweeting for quite a few days to take all output with a pinch of salt, FI's at T96 IMHO, have a lovely day!

    *Stop Press*

    *Announcement from the Weather Agencies*

    "After careful consideration, we have decided to relieve Heide, Cindy & Ellie from their new posts and have replaced these ageing relics with four new super super-models, the GFS, ECM, UKMO & ICON.....Our senior forecasters agreed unanimously that this... viewimage.thumb.png.485475026873e78d2d0927bba99dc427.png is far more attractive for the office calendars than this.... images.jpg.aa03a52cfb9c3040d82b529406378a5d.jpg"

     

    yes folks, I do believe I have just 'ramped' :snowman-emoji:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The CPC NAO/AO worthy of a BOOM:bomb::bomb::bomb:,not one straggler in there:D

    nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

    full retrograde of height's pushing into Greenland with a re-load from the N/NE possible,what do you call that train from the Atlantic,Oh!!!,zonal,what is that!!!

    610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

    De-built temps,dewpoints and wind direction all prelonging the cold and those easterly trades have gained since yesterday too

    eps_pluim_tt_06260.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.png

    i am still on the fence though,has anyone got a time machine:D

    1200px-TeamTimeCar.com-BTTF_DeLorean_Tim

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland

    Latest 120 hour fax chart for noon Saturday.....Scandi high flexing its muscles....strengthening easterly wind.....bitter cold spreading westwards over Europe.....destination British Isles.....Its coming 

    Screenshot_20180220-002605.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Oh get lost!

    this is taking the mick now,means at 180,240

    gensnh-21-1-180.pnggensnh-21-1-240.png?18

    we could be looking at a memorable winter 2018 here matching the historical events of 1947,63,81,87 and 91

    and i am getting quiet worried.

    sorry i am late to the party,just finished work,it's just took me a good 2 hours reading the posts from 2pm lol.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Oh get lost!

    this is taking the mick now,means at 180,240

    gensnh-21-1-180.pnggensnh-21-1-240.png?18

    we could be looking at a memorable winter 2018 here matching the historical events of 1947,63,81,87 and 91

    and i am getting quiet worried.

    Two brilliant mean charts....the 240hr is exceptional as although the high retrogresses to Greenland we are still in a flow east of north with continued injection of cold uppers ..... continuing risk of more widespread snow in this scenario versus a straight northerly .....we couldn't ask for any better really.

     

    Edited by Bottled Snow
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    The number of pages we’ve been through on the Model thread in the last 24 hours is incredible - more than the amount of toes and fingers I can count on myself!

    Guess it’s no surprise considering the synoptics the models are dishing out for the cold and snow fans.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    The GFS 18Z...OMFG...that’s all i’m going to say! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    GFS T+120 great a tad more north with ridge compared to 18z should mean more areas affected by deep cold and snow..

    24C7B691-99EF-4E65-AB0F-12555061CF03.thumb.png.e4a8d33ac89e65c0bea3b57818216999.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...