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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. 

Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?

Funny you should mention that (in jest) because my theory is that the ice ages started with events in the mid latitudes i.e greater outpouring of cold instances from the higher latitudes. Suppose that is for another thread though!

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So what day this week can we be confident of these cobra runs actually coming off? Fri/Sat or are the building blocks in earlier than that?

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed, can we get something that extreme though, I mean its not as though a League One side like Wigan could beat Man City at the moment... or heaven forbid Leicester City winning the premiership title... :D

I think the cold spell would go down in folklore if it transpired and it would highlight how fragile our infrastructure is.

The closest I've came to witnessing something remarkable, was when I was on the south coast on the 11th March 2013. It was non stop powder snow driven on by what was the coldest wind I've ever felt in my life, bear in mind I've been in New York during new year! And what was seen in the Channel Islands and extreme southeast was incredible. That was achieved by uppers of -12 and a cold pool about half the size of what is being forecast. Exciting, but in reality, very daunting. 

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Phenomenal day!!!

and we see the magic -10c appear on the ens - some members surpass it!! ?

4DDF327C-CC08-4EF7-BBDF-9E7163AAEB53.thumb.gif.2ae1cb02ab5599adcdffefc5daae8676.gif

Fantastic stuff!!

What on earth at that range could produce them temperatures at that range? Anyone? At 300+ hours what sort of crazy reload is that....

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We're at the point now where we have a solid GFS ensemble suite and a solid ECM ensemble suite and presumably given Met outlooks that if this does suddenly implode and the cold goes elsewhere, the models may as well be binned because they would have proven themselves completely and utterly useless. 

I struggle to believe entire ensemble suites from the worlds top performing models would be that wrong given the timescales. Given that, I'm declaring it safe to tell families/facebook.

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Just now, Southender said:

So what day this week can we be confident of these cobra runs actually coming off? Fri/Sat or are the building blocks in earlier than that?

Cold due Sun AM - therefor banked Thurs 12z for 100% security but Weds 12s will still be a strong signal 80-90% if no change-

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Maybe we can have one more upgrade for longevity before bed. 

 

I give you the control. 

 

 

Screenshot_20180219-232701.png

Screenshot_20180219-232827.thumb.png.6348293750a3bc8a80ee1a7eb649bc13.png

Edited by ALL ABOARD
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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We're at the point now where we have a solid GFS ensemble suite and a solid ECM ensemble suite and presumably given Met outlooks that if this does suddenly implode and the cold goes elsewhere, the models may as well be binned because they would have proven themselves completely and utterly useless. 

I struggle to believe entire ensemble suites from the worlds top performing models would be that wrong given the timescales. Given that, I'm declaring it safe to tell families/facebook.

I've seen model ensemble suites flip inside 96 hours...we're far from safe on this one!

Only another 3 days to be sure :p

Edited by CreweCold
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Here are the short ensembles.  They don't really need any words

Diagramme GEFS

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6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I was just about to tuck into the ensembles.... You've saved me a journey, and wow. Just wow. It really is earth shatteringly beautiful. Thank you.

they are getting better its only numbers 2,8,9 now that bring that t-96 Belarus shortwave West causing the SW of our block to weaken and be attacked by the lows to south West. 

All other members now taking North east supporting the eastern end of our block and keeping the flow of cold uppers intact.

gens-2-1-96.png

gens-2-1-162.png

was 6 members bringing it West on the 12z so now halved to 3, firm up on extending the easterly. can we get a full house on the 0z.

All eyes between 86-120 on next couple of runs, as this the only way I can see that we don't extended spell. If we are sitting here at this time tomorrow with charts like the 18z GFS I think we can rest easy as surely it will have this shortwave nailed at T72 tomorrow night.

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What is great is only a couple of ECM members going for that UK flabby high. Most get north enough in the end. 18z GFS also near total agreement. Just one seemingly shunting the cold somewhat.

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Well what a fantastic set of charts ,being an amatuer i see people mentioning southern england are in for it , Anyone think eastern scotland looking at alot of snow out of this ?

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Just now, CreweCold said:

I've seen model ensemble suites flip inside 96 hours...we're far from safe on this one!

Yup! Though I think this one is unique because:

a) There is so much agreement with the weather models
b) We know a record SSW event is encouraging such synoptics

As of now I'm 80-90% sure which is higher then any other forecast deep cold spell (been observing since 2007)

If we have the same level of agreement this time tomorrow evening then it will be a case of how long the cold spell lasts, not if it will arrive.

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6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's no doubt about it. Imminent power failures for many and utter chaos will pursue if this 18z does happen. 

Whats even worse, people like myself have never experienced a true proper blizzard not seen since the likes of 87,91,63 or 78! 

I pray for everyone to stay safe and get stocked up with essentials. I'm trying not to get carried away here, but this really might be the big event that's been so long overdue. The even more frightening prospect, is that this thing is being actually upgraded run by run. 

Last proper blizzard down this way was Jan 82, but we survived. Jan 87 extreme cold and very snowy and there was much drifting but it wasn't until after the snow had stopped that the wind picked up enough to cause drifting. Feb 91 was very cold and very snowy but no drifting that I remember.

The charts we are seeing now remind me most of Feb 91. 

If an 18z GFS style blizzard should occur there would be plenty of warning and authorities would be as prepared as possible. I'm sure people would panic and certain sections of the media would whip people into a frenzy - yes Daily Express I'm looking at you! But people would adapt and pull together and whilst there would undoubtedly be hardship and difficulties we would be ok in the end.

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I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

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1 minute ago, Sam Mithell said:

Well what a fantastic set of charts ,being an amatuer i see people mentioning southern england are in for it , Anyone think eastern scotland looking at alot of snow out of this ?

If any of these runs we're seeing come to fruition then the simple answer is YES.

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@nick sussex are we now green on your traffic  light system?? It’s been missing since the beginning of the year lol. 

Edited by Tom Jarvis

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup! Though I think this one is unique because:

a) There is so much agreement with the weather models
b) We know a record SSW event is encouraging such synoptics

As of now I'm 80-90% sure which is higher then any other forecast deep cold spell (been observing since 2007)

If we have the same level of agreement this time tomorrow evening then it will be a case of how long the cold spell lasts, not if it will arrive.

I think we are already at the point where a cold spell will happen, regardless of the type. The only question is how deep and snowy it goes.

18z control run is *better* than the op...

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Okay folks, I know we're all excited and are dancing around the room with excitement at the insanity on offer (I know I am), but let's get back on topic please! :)

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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

I can't remember exactly but I think with 2010 the models were like a dog with a bone that couldn't let go for a week or so leading up to it, very similar to how they are now.

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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

2010 was modelled incredibly well, you were able to count down from 240hrs with only minor wobbles.  Not sure about 2009 and 2013 though.

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At  way out at 177 hours, on the southeast coast, the warmest GEFS 850mb temperature is -11.3. All other 19 members plus the op and control are colder than that, most significantly colder. Absolutely bonkers.

Edited by radiohead
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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

2010 was rock solid from the start. Intial thrust was overdone but other than that no drama. Indeed as time went by the models improved as they sniffed another block forming. Something to watch as we have had several bursts of strat warming.

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12 minutes ago, Southender said:

So what day this week can we be confident of these cobra runs actually coming off? Fri/Sat or are the building blocks in earlier than that?

Easterly flow is of high confidence. But the cold cone is still wide think like a hurricane graph and how those are shown.

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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I’d love to know how these major cold spells were modeled , I mean was the signal that strong there were only minor ‘wobbles’ , how did 2010 go ? Drama or just solid with upgrades ? From what I read the met seen 2010 far out ?

Just thinking exactly the same. I think 2010 was forecast well in advance by the Met Office etc and smoothly evolved. Let’s  hope this is doing the same!!! 

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