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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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3 minutes ago, Duncan McAlister said:

Always think the GFS 2m tends to overdo the cold a bit though?

The North Sea is at its coldest at this time of year...charts for Monday show only - 1 on the coast  can't see the beast in that just yet..hope you are all right

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Quite extraordinary charts, ridging over Greenland and Scandinavia with subzero temps we haven't seen for over 30 years, I believe that's 1986. Could even be as cold as 1981. Wow, after all these years of disappointment we may be on the verge of another memorable winter. Exciting chart watching over the next few days.

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8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I've been telling my friends for weeks lol!

Will be less convective potential further north on this run. But the cold will be locked in so I wouldn't worry unduly.

Ed, why less convection on this run with colder uppers (gen question)?

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8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I've never wanted to hear from Ian Brown more than I do right now..

5a8b4f15d6b32_IANbrown.thumb.png.485faa053428788c8b7f3f539b4f3312.png

IF that cold pool was that cold, it'd be historic. Probably record breaking for the time of year?

Wouldn't really fancy being in Central Germany.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

-15C isotherm over the south of England for over 30hrs and counting, bear in mind how exceptional it is to get it for 6hrs! Whatever happens on the rest of the run,that is totally crazy!

What would this mean for those under it though exactly?

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2010 - When the models grasped onto the cold spell they didn't let go and we just saw continuous updates until it hit us.

March 2013, similar though I seem to remember more drama. 

February 2018 - Absolute model chaos for a week and now all models are fairly consistent and just continuously updating..

ECM/UKMO/GFS all solid, the other models are barely being spoken about so that tells you everything. Maybe we wont see downgrades, maybe it'll follow the pattern.

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I think this run may be reflecting MetO thinking - the middle of the week is just one solid blizzard with frontal attacks SW to NE

gfs-0-198.png?18

I'm gobsmacked... and struggling to come to terms with multiple gobsmack moments over the last few days. When on earth are we actually going to see a downgrade???? 

Probably at T+48 as bloody usual ?

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Just now, Southender said:

The M4 won’t exist. It will of disappeared under 2 feet of powder snow. Good riddance as well. Poxy road is the bain of our lives down south.

Haha!!! ? it’ll be one long average speed zero rather than those damned 50s!!!!

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19 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Isnt it kfc? ? 

 

 

Yes you're right..my bad:D

Anyway, I'm running out of superlatives to describe the model output and tonights Gfs 18z is no exception..Big Freeze incoming!!..just hope we get out and enjoy it rather than sitting at our computers watching for when the breakdown is coming!:whistling::cold-emoji:

 

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3 minutes ago, supernova said:

Ed, why less convection on this run with colder uppers (gen question)?

Initially, because of higher pressure further north - though that risk diminishes quickly

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