Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Note we are already getting some weak convective activity from the north sea, 850hpa temps are -5/6/7C AND we have a anti-cyclonic flow which won't be that unstable. Interesting for sure!

Nick, yeah those lapse rates are huge, fwiw a typical range to get lake effect precip is a 15C lapse rate between surface and 850hpa, so we are into that range.

Edited by kold weather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Just to give an idea of the temperature differences between the North Sea and cold uppers early next week, SSTs around 6-7C with 500mb temps between -40 to -45C next Tuesday as that upper trough moves over - giving 45-50C temp contrast and between sea level and 850mb it's a 20C contrast- certainly will create steep lapse rates and aid in cloud depth to produce some heavy snow showers over the N Sea.

actual_SST.thumb.gif.62c1bc5422fd5b5287852d26094620c6.gifT500_192.thumb.png.8532698d17ad46ca16c4343a7a27ce14.pngT850_192.thumb.png.1329a28ba1019c63ae113d692a0ecf46.png

Obviously the air will be dry when it leaves the near continent, but will pick up moisture in the lower layers over the North Sea which will rise into shower clouds given the low-level instability of cold air over the relatively warmer sea. 

Perfect recipe for heavy powdery snow showers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think snow showers could be affecting eastern areas bordering the north sea as early as sunday and then becoming heavier and more widespread from early next week..fabulous model output for coldies,  especially the Ecm / Gem..although this freeze is still almost a week away it already looks set in stone, the only question is will it be mainly for the southern half of the uk or all of us..but I'm really hoping its going to be a nationwide event!..anyway, the freezer / beast from the east awaits:shok::cold-emoji:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thanks for that will enjoy trying to find out how it works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Just to give an idea of the temperature differences between the North Sea and cold uppers early next week, SSTs around 6-7C with 500mb temps between -40 to -45C next Tuesday as that upper trough moves over - giving 45-50C temp contrast and between sea level and 850mb it's a 20C contrast- certainly will create steep lapse rates and aid in cloud depth to produce some heavy snow showers over the N Sea.

actual_SST.thumb.gif.62c1bc5422fd5b5287852d26094620c6.gifT500_192.thumb.png.8532698d17ad46ca16c4343a7a27ce14.pngT850_192.thumb.png.1329a28ba1019c63ae113d692a0ecf46.png

Obviously the air will be dry when it leaves the near continent, but will pick up moisture in the lower layers over the North Sea which will rise into shower clouds given the low-level instability of cold air over the relatively warmer sea. 

Veer/convection now worth a check.

Although as^above convective rates are inept-atm.

Although isobar switching via raw outs ..screaming potential via sea to land encounter.

Some huge dumps via compacting moisture convection highly likely!!

And the deeper the feed the deeper the accumulate...

A seriously awesome incursion about to bite!!!!

A usefull -set of tools as we walk into the spell..

Screenshot_2018-02-19-21-05-00.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even western areas could get showers out of the increasing scenario next week...lots to be watching 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Out of curiosity is there room for upgrades or are we pretty much at the point of pure perfection on current output?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The cold air arriving is not far of the range of some of the Hi Res models, the first being the NMM 10km with the European view.

Lets hope those delicious looking purple colours (sub -16c) reach our shores.

nmm-16-120-0.png?19-19

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well i am just having a nice glass of Malbec after going through the last ECM run.That is truly exceptional and whilst 18-24 hrs later in bringing the cold in than GFS it evolves with a 3-4 day Easterly with heavy snow showers/possibly prolonged snow in all Eastern areas penetrating into Central areas and then as the High Pressure moving across from Scandi to Iceland and then towards Greenland would give us a Northerly/North Easterly which would result in snow probably popping up anywhere in the UK..These synoptics are the best i have seen since December 2010(where i witnessed 18 inchs of snow in this part of NW Kent!!)and i sure would like the ECM show this as a trend in the next 48rs.It is amazing that the small differences and orientation of where a High pressure is can make a difference down the line.

I don't think you can better the ECM tonight and would take it every day of the week.So hope it is on the money.I can almost visualise the first snowflakes falling next Sunday night in the lights of the lampost outside my house lol!!

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bartlett high said:

Out of curiosity is there room for upgrades or are we pretty much at the point of pure perfection on current output?

ECM is there somewhat we could have a smooth transition into a Greenland high without any loss of cold or mild sectors. Would probably lead to something that would rival Dec 2010.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Bad news, the WMC is having none of it:nonono:

wmc-0-120.png?18-00

Thankfully that's yesterdays 12z, if it was today's I would be very very worried as the WMC is one of the best performing models. :D

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I just looked at the ECM 12z.

See yesterday when I was urging caution about the energy in the northern arm of the jet? Yeah? Ignore that! 

These are simply astonishing runs, best I've seen in all my years monitoring weather and studying NWP on line for more than 10 years. Simply eye poppingly beautiful! Or weather pornography if you will! Simply beautiful, and somewhat unbelievable! 

I will be going on Wednesday to buy extra coal sacks and logs for the fire, what a time for my gas boiler to pack in! Hope the parts arrive to fix it sooner than later!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good god I've just looked at the GFS.. im not a coldie, although I love extremes, that is a brutal easterly there!. Lets get the deep cold in past t120.. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

lets hope the bbc start   geting  of the fence

It’s a week away. no need to warn about .......what exactly?  Cold and frosty? Can’t be any more specific than news orgs are already spouting off about it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

Yes, possibly a more S'ly based high on this run may be the end result...but that shouldn't be a surprise as it was still a possibility shown within the ECM ensembles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A simply awesome day of charts from pretty much all models, who'd have thought the 12z GFS will turn out to be a bit of a damp squib when compared to the ECM? I think the ECM from 144 is the best run I have ever seen, eclipsing the now legendary 'That ECM' (which failed to materialise).  Chart of this winter for my money is the ECM at 216

ECH1-216.GIF?19-0

Those seasoned and battered long-termers on here will know that when an easterly is on the table, you need to get it down to T72 before popping the Champagne corks so I'm not counting any chickens just yet. However, the cross model agreement and Met Office being on-board adds another layer of comfort.  It's going to be a long few days on here.

Edited by Ice Day
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Hmm icon doesn’t look as good as its previous run. More energy over the top off the high. Might still work out just see where this goes. 

Please don't take me as pedantic..

But even though the icon is the former mod-in throwing out evolutions/data..

Its also 5th best in format of raw defined outs!!

-example..mix or defy , its evolutions as leading ops/raw take out the scales!!!

I never post its evolve- for the reason of -microscale/larger window results...

Grid points far better than the former ...under played!! Raw-gfs..

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...