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Paul

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we think the ECM is under estimating the convective snow potential? I expect the majority of the UK population would be wondering what all the fuss is about if this is the total snow depth at day 10? 

 

 

68E4807B-62F3-4EEC-B7AB-1570EF11123E.png

Was just thinking that looking at it. Not all that severe snow wise.

All though a few perturbations give slightly deeper snowfall.

Going by past experience, almost certainly.

Edited by Deep Snow please

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It’s understandable that peoples’ excitement is snowballing regarding the Polar Express-esque outlooks and, as such, we’ve tried to be a bit more leaned back this evening with our moderating of posts in here. But just a friendly reminder that this is the Model Output thread and would appreciate any off-topicness to be kept to a minimum, or your post may not see daylight, again! Thanks a lot all and please continue :) 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Added extra detail

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Liking the trend of the EC ops. for more -NAO amplitude of below -4, now that screams omega block to me, lets hope it stays firm as we know NAO can go awol, courtesy of some mysterious xxx solar flare out of nowhere knowing our luck :)

 

image.thumb.png.73b1265e8fd2027c4720257b1c726f7d.png

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Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Was just thinking that looking at it. Not all that severe snow wise.

All though a few perturbations give slightly deeper snowfall.

 

in 2010 the snow went way inland. Ecm can only model what it's programed to do. I'd bet like in 2010 most of UK Ireland will be buried if Ec comes of.:)

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

if ECM lands then 40-50cm widely over Kent 70-80 over the downs-

snow widespread elsewhere

East facing coasts - but streamers penetrating way inland also Ireland hit 30cm in an easterly the other year -

S

ECM shows no more than 11cm for Kent area

755b1ac5-aeaf-4559-bde9-03574a756e41.thumb.png.1e5521d1881d30492a15f0d2b235ec1b.png

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

ECM shows no more than 11cm for Kent area

755b1ac5-aeaf-4559-bde9-03574a756e41.thumb.png.1e5521d1881d30492a15f0d2b235ec1b.png

Model doesnt know convection rates.

Lake effect snow.

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Stunning charts but on a side note how bad has the ECM been! Usually considered top dog but it's been flip flopping all over the place with this cold spell. ICON stayed consistent and has impressed me, GFS also far more consistent than usual. Wonder what the ECM's been smoking this year :nonono:

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EC 12z Mean charts are out;

EDH1-120.thumb.GIF.d9413edbf9bc2c4ab4a11163bf8e8dda.GIF 

EDH1-168.thumb.gif.4cc515dd2e8d626a9743ecb9aed8e2db.gif

EDH1-192.thumb.gif.2b0ab0b3b08d16a8672da0553595a926.gif EDH1-240.thumb.GIF.86cc531daf7abae16a4fcfed2edaf147.GIF

 

T168 850hpa mean chart has -12c 850hpa temps clipping the south east coast;

EDH0-168.thumb.gif.c31094fe28d254fb8a37ef72bbb1e6ae.gif

 

Edited by AWD

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3 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Does anyone know what the snow depths will be like in Peterborough according to the 12z GFS or the 12z ECM ??

Don't worry about what the models say regarding snow depths. As others have said, they don't know the convection rates. If the ECM verifies you could expect well over a foot for Eastern areas and 10cm+ widely in the south/south east. This is ignoring any low pressure systems that head north from Iberia

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Snow depth charts are an estimate @best -even 24 hrs out.

Ppn rate charts reasonable @that range(24hrs)...

As mentioned..covective decipher is way off the mark at this point..

And easterlys are fraught with consequence!!!

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM shows no more than 11cm for Kent area

755b1ac5-aeaf-4559-bde9-03574a756e41.thumb.png.1e5521d1881d30492a15f0d2b235ec1b.png

What the models do know is that in this kind of setup the NE of England gets pasted.  Not as cold there but nice long sea track with intense showers. Thundersnow.

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

if ECM lands then 40-50cm widely over Kent 70-80 over the downs-

snow widespread elsewhere

East facing coasts - but streamers penetrating way inland also Ireland hit 30cm in an easterly the other year -

S

Basically if the 12z suite comes off the only analogs in the last few decades are Jan 87 and Feb 91 (Feb 09 isn't a bad one IF it *downgrades*) and that should give you an idea of possible snow levels.

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With the ECM is on board, there is now cross model agreement for a memorable cold spell, certainly the coldest since December 2010, and even quite possibly, the coldest since 1991. Hopefully we will now have a consistent cross model agreement for the next few days. I still remember the "beast from the east" in December 2012 which never was, although this time things are different with the SSW.

 

Western Europe will be in for a hell of a shock, especially as we are the cusp of a meteorological spring with the daffodils starting to emerge out of the ground in our front garden. 

IMG_4431.GIF

IMG_4432.GIF

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well, i've just caught up with the output. i looked apprehensively at the GFS and the ECM through my fingers...

i have to say i'm very disappointed.

 

 

 

that i didnt buy those snow tyres for my land rover!!!!!

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12z EC Det a colder option in the long term, but a good turn towards cold in those ens in the medium term IMO;

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.34c34fe6988a6ce9d6494ea61be13fdf.png

0z ens for comparison;

5a8b2e033e048_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.a6ccbead5fe6fa4ea3a17901af7c1366.png

Edited by AWD

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm here - been working and have also had to pick myself off the floor after checking the 12Z.

Best ever trop response that we have been able to track following a SSW, oh those of little faith lol.

I did think of buying all the snow shovels and salt in B&Q yesterday and then selling it back to them next weekend....

I have been convinced of an epic cold spell for a long time now (since before the split but my resolute belief was reinforced when I saw the residual Hudson Bay daughter vortex getting taken down).

It may have taken the best part of 10 years but finally we are seeing the makings of an epic spell when you take the strat vortex out of the equation. Even @TEITS may finally have to concede that there is something in this teleconnections Malarkey!

Mass respect to you in terms of your forecasting of this cold spell. You and @Catacol kept the faith even when the models hadn't latched onto the SSW and provided exceptional insight about the background signals. You've called this one brilliantly. 

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM mean looks cold

EDM0-168.thumb.GIF.0310e535e71ba5e2aafdecf00737c35b.GIFEDM0-192.thumb.GIF.33b98e72820fdc5ad8cbf9bc52e629ce.GIFEDM0-216.thumb.GIF.bcdab0a0da040b707ed67d5f2b2e8040.GIFEDM0-240.thumb.GIF.fb3a0f20745717fa1a036c078f983ad7.GIF

EDM1-168.thumb.GIF.05f2b687d2107cf0ed28c5fa044aa69e.GIFEDM1-192.thumb.GIF.87f121ffa386a4c392e66f20d36399a6.GIFEDM1-216.thumb.GIF.52b6e2dd147818fcb75a147cfe8c6191.GIFEDM1-240.thumb.GIF.02c3f17714145cd8493b493215e71d32.GIF

Must admit, that is an impressive mean with a nice-looking Easterly flow. A little better than I thought it would be! 

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Also worth noting lapse rates are nearly 50C between S.north sea between SSTs and 500hpa temperatures. HUGE!

Also we will be in a mean cyclonic flow by that time as well as low thicknesses, it all scream massive snow showers, probably plenty of embedded troughs in such a flow.

Finally, the 500hpa temps are down to -42C by 28th Feb on the 12z ECM, thats firmly into polar low territory...that is how cold the flow is.

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