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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


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Cold - Yes Instability - Yes Prolonged - Yes I just wet myself - Yes!

I quite often agree with your sort of sentiment, as I'm one who opts to look at the most likely solution to fit the signals rather than the preferred one But, equally impartially and with intended

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some p

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, snowice said:

    Hope bluearmy is feeling better about  ec much better than 00z high much more to NW cold should follow:)

    I like the upper high appearing near svaalbard day 6 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    ECM 168h - cold pool seems further north than the 0z and hitting the UK! 

    ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Much much better. Look at the cold pool on N hemisphere view and it’s clear!!

    00z / 12z 

    62446F5B-688A-487A-B6DF-E403C631FB4D.thumb.png.2fa7d91be43fff4b85c73ba0ad3ff6e1.pngB80F2158-710F-4D53-BC51-5EEED2786196.thumb.png.46f917d31c7da6b42cde2775e16e70d8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, danm said:

    ECM 168h - cold pool seems further north than the 0z and hitting the UK! 

    ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

    Yes and cold pool on ecm looks a lot bigger Than the GFS ?

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    ECM would also stand a better chance of keeping the cold flow in longer due to the SE of the high not cutting off the flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Oooooshhh!!!

    Ecm onboard...

    Heights-inflow-alignment...

    All CORRECTED!!!

    ECM1-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Only 1 run with more twists and turns to come I'm sure so we should keep this in perspective, but I must confess that when you compare things to yesterday's 12z:

    ECM1-168.GIF?19-0ECM1-192.GIF?12

    I couldn't help but give out just a little 

    16izxs.jpg

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  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    MUCH better orientation of the High on the 12z

    0z

    image.thumb.png.d97accd2fc818d4de5780ef13f89a170.png

    12z

    image.thumb.png.d9d538de9630b2c8dcd539d5e7724e5b.png

    Edited by Purga
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  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Here's the uppers at 144 and 168....if you toggle between the 2 it looks like a direct UK hit.  192 will hopefully confirm it but could be a nationwide event again

    ECM0-144.GIF?19-0 ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

    ...Oh, and there's -12 uppers across much of the country :whistling::bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    May not be comparing the right periods here but look at the heights across northern Scandi on the 12z at 168 vs the 192 on the 0z:

    ECH1-192.GIF?19-12

     

    9EB398AC-5626-44B1-8BB6-68CB765D9CCC.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Amazing 12z ECM for sure!! May even give the 12z GFS a run for its money. Getting mighty close now to the time where this becomes odds on, as the building blocks are NOW starting to appear in real time. I can't see anyway we won't get a decent cold spell now, its still a question whether or not we get a legendary cold shot, but the 12z models have been outstanding for that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stirling / Dublin
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy drifting snow.
  • Location: Stirling / Dublin

    ECM is turning into an epic,  takes a bit longer but is a more locked in cold spell.  This time tomorrow we should be staring down the barrel of the best easterly in decades... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    ECM moving in the right direction now, though still slower than the GFS. Would like to see one more adjustment further north but I'm certainly not going to complain about this.

    ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    WHAT THE ACTUAL 'FLIP'.  This could be the best run ever coming up....it's putting the GFS in the shade.

    ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    Thank you!

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